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自适应设计中与闭合检验相容的同时置信区间AI 解读

We describe a general method for finding a confidence region for a parameter vector that is compatible with the decisions of a two-stage closed test procedure in an adaptive experiment. The closed test procedure is characterized by the fact that rejection or nonrejection of a null hypothesis may depend on the decisions for other hypotheses and the compatible confidence region will, in general, have a complex, nonrectangular shape. We find the smallest cross-product of…

通过自适应核范数惩罚进行降秩回归AI 解读

We propose an adaptive nuclear norm penalization approach for low-rank matrix approximation, and use it to develop a new reduced rank estimation method for high-dimensional multivariate regression. The adaptive nuclear norm is defined as the weighted sum of the singular values of the matrix, and it is generally non-convex under the natural restriction that the weight decreases with the singular value. However, we show that the proposed non-convex penalized regression method…

利用小波与阈值法估计高维波动率矩阵AI 解读

We propose a locally stationary linear model for the evolution of high-dimensional financial returns, where the time-varying volatility matrix is modelled as a piecewise-constant function of time. We introduce a new wavelet-based technique for estimating the volatility matrix, which combines four ingredients: a Haar wavelet decomposition, variance stabilization of the Haar coefficients via the Fisz transform prior to thresholding, a bias correction, and extra time-domain…

具有变化平滑参数的平滑样条AI 解读

This paper considers the development of spatially adaptive smoothing splines for the estimation of a regression function with nonhomogeneous smoothness across the domain. Two challenging issues arising in this context are the evaluation of the equivalent kernel and the determination of a local penalty. The penalty is a function of the design points in order to accommodate local behaviour of the regression function. We show that the spatially adaptive smoothing spline…

利用数据依赖自由度处理边界约束的似然比检验AI 解读

When the null hypothesis constrains parameters to the boundary of the parameter space, the asymptotic null distribution of the likelihood ratio statistic is often a mixture of chi-squared distributions, giving rise to the so-called chi-bar test, where weights can depend on the true unknown parameter and be difficult to calculate. We consider the test that conditions on the observed number of null hypothesis parameters in the interior of the parameter space. This approach…

球面乘积与 Stiefel 流形上 Fisher–Bingham 分布归一化常数的鞍点近似AI 解读

In an earlier paper Kume & Wood (2005) showed how the normalizing constant of the Fisher–Bingham distribution on a sphere can be approximated with high accuracy using a univariate saddlepoint density approximation. In this sequel, we extend the approach to a more general setting and derive saddlepoint approximations for the normalizing constants of multicomponent Fisher–Bingham distributions on Cartesian products of spheres, and Fisher–Bingham distributions on Stiefel…

控制稳健小区域估计量的偏差AI 解读

Sinha & Rao (2009) proposed estimation procedures designed for small-area means, based on robustified maximum likelihood estimators and robust empirical best linear unbiased predictors. Their methods are of the plug-in type and may be biased. Bias-corrected estimators have been proposed by Chambers et al. (2013). Here, we investigate two new approaches: one relying on the work of Chambers (1986), and the second using the concept of conditional bias to measure the influence…

右删失数据半参数变换模型中的变量选择AI 解读

We study variable selection in general transformation models for right-censored data. The models studied can incorporate external time-varying covariates, and they include the proportional hazards model and the proportional odds model as special cases. We propose an estimation method that involves minimizing a weighted negative partial loglikelihood function plus an adaptive lasso penalty, with the initial values obtained from nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation. The…

收缩先验下线性模型的后验一致性AI 解读

We investigate the asymptotic behaviour of posterior distributions of regression coefficients in high-dimensional linear models as the number of dimensions grows with the number of observations. We show that the posterior distribution concentrates in neighbourhoods of the true parameter under simple sufficient conditions. These conditions hold under popular shrinkage priors given some sparsity assumptions.

缩放包络：多元线性回归中的尺度不变与高效估计AI 解读

Efficient estimation of the regression coefficients is a fundamental problem in multivariate linear regression. The envelope model proposed by Cook et al. (2010) was shown to have the potential to achieve substantial efficiency gains by accounting for linear combinations of the response vector that are essentially immaterial to coefficient estimation. This requires in part that the distribution of those linear combinations be invariant to changes in the nonstochastic…

连接集合卡尔曼滤波与粒子滤波AI 解读

In many applications of Monte Carlo nonlinear filtering, the propagation step is computationally expensive, and hence the sample size is limited. With small sample sizes, the update step becomes crucial. Particle filtering suffers from the well-known problem of sample degeneracy. Ensemble Kalman filtering avoids this, at the expense of treating non-Gaussian features of the forecast distribution incorrectly. Here we introduce a procedure that makes a continuous transition…

复杂抽样下的两样本秩检验AI 解读

Rank tests are widely used for exploratory and formal inference in the health and social sciences. With the widespread use of data from complex survey samples in medical and social research, there is increasing demand for versions of rank tests that account for the sampling design. We propose a general approach to constructing design-based rank tests when comparing groups within a complex sample and when using a national survey as a reference distribution, and illustrate…

接收者操作特征曲线的复合分位数回归AI 解读

The covariate-specific receiver operating characteristic curve is frequently used to evaluate the classification accuracy of a diagnostic test when it is associated with certain covariates. In this paper, we propose a new procedure for estimating this curve based on a reformulation of the conventional location-scale model and the idea of composite quantile regression. Asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators is established, both for the regression parameters and for…

事件类别缺失时复发事件均值函数的非参数估计AI 解读

Recurrent event data frequently arise in longitudinal studies when study subjects possibly experience more than one event during the observation period. Often, such recurrent events can be categorized. However, part of the categorization may be missing due to technical difficulties. If the event types are missing completely at random, then a complete case analysis may provide consistent estimates of regression parameters in certain regression models, but estimates of the…

含测量误差协变量的逆概率加权AI 解读

Inverse probability-weighted estimators are widely used in applications where data are missing due to nonresponse or censoring and in the estimation of causal effects from observational studies. Current estimators rely on ignorability assumptions for response indicators or treatment assignment and outcomes being conditional on observed covariates which are assumed to be measured without error. However, measurement error is common for the variables collected in many…

病例—队列研究的更高效估计量AI 解读

The case-cohort study design, used to reduce costs in large cohort studies, is a random sample of the entire cohort, named the subcohort, augmented with subjects having the disease of interest but not in the subcohort sample. When several diseases are of interest, several case-cohort studies may be conducted using the same subcohort, with each disease analyzed separately, ignoring the additional exposure measurements collected on subjects with the other diseases. This is not…

基于 Dirichlet 混合的自适应贝叶斯多元密度估计AI 解读

We show that rate-adaptive multivariate density estimation can be performed using Bayesian methods based on Dirichlet mixtures of normal kernels with a prior distribution on the kernel's covariance matrix parameter. We derive sufficient conditions on the prior specification that guarantee convergence to a true density at a rate that is minimax optimal for the smoothness class to which the true density belongs. No prior knowledge of smoothness is assumed. The sufficient…

序贯治疗决策中最优动态治疗方案的稳健估计AI 解读

A dynamic treatment regime is a list of sequential decision rules for assigning treatment based on a patient's history. Q- and A-learning are two main approaches for estimating the optimal regime, i.e., that yielding the most beneficial outcome in the patient population, using data from a clinical trial or observational study. Q-learning requires postulated regression models for the outcome, while A-learning involves models for that part of the outcome regression…

罕见事件的自动去簇AI 解读

The analysis of events with low probability but disastrous impact entails understanding how they cluster in time. We present an automatic three-step procedure for identifying clusters, estimating the cluster size distribution and constructing confidence intervals for the extremal index, which measures the degree of clustering of rare events. The third step combines empirical likelihood and parametric likelihood approaches. Simulations show that our new procedure performs…

有限总体抽样中稳健估计的统一方法AI 解读

We argue that the conditional bias associated with a sample unit can be a useful measure of influence in finite population sampling. We use the conditional bias to derive robust estimators that are obtained by downweighting the most influential sample units. Under the model-based approach to inference, our proposed robust estimator is closely related to the well-known estimator of Chambers (1986). Under the design-based approach, it possesses the desirable feature of being…

比例似然比模型中 Luo 与 Tsai 估计迭代算法的收敛性AI 解读

Luo & Tsai (2012, Biometrika) introduced the proportional likelihood ratio model. They proposed an iterative algorithm for the estimation of the baseline distribution function but did not establish its convergence. Here we provide a proof of convergence.

聚类生存数据加速失效时间脆弱性模型的核平滑剖面似然估计AI 解读

Clustered survival data frequently arise in biomedical applications, where event times of interest are clustered into groups such as families. In this article we consider an accelerated failure time frailty model for clustered survival data and develop nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation for it via a kernel smoother aided EM algorithm. We show that the proposed estimator for the regression coefficients is consistent, asymptotically normal and semiparametric efficient…

差异性测量误差下事件时间数据的校正回归估计AI 解读

Differential measurement error data plausibly arise in epidemiology and biomedical studies but have been rarely dealt with explicitly, especially for time-to-event data. We propose an estimation equation correction method in semiparametric censored linear regression to deal with differential measurement error for time-to-event data with validation samples. The method does not require explicit modelling of the error-prone covariates and leads to unbiased estimation. Copyright…

半参数更新过程模型的稳健分析AI 解读

A rate model is proposed for a modulated renewal process comprising a single long sequence, where the covariate process may not capture the dependencies in the sequence as in standard intensity models. We consider partial likelihood-based inferences under a semiparametric multiplicative rate model, which has been widely studied in the context of independent and identical data. Under an intensity model, gap times in a single long sequence may be used naively in the partial…