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高维生存数据的删失秩独立筛选AI 解读

In modern statistical applications, the dimension of covariates can be much larger than the sample size. In the context of linear models, correlation screening (Fan and Lv, 2008) has been shown to reduce the dimension of such data effectively while achieving the sure screening property, i.e., all of the active variables can be retained with high probability. However, screening based on the Pearson correlation does not perform well when applied to contaminated covariates…

一类改进的 Hochberg–Hommel 混合型逐步递增多重检验程序AI 解读

In this paper we derive a new p-value based multiple testing procedure that improves upon the Hommel procedure by gaining power as well as having a simpler step-up structure similar to the Hochberg procedure. The key to this improvement is that the Hommel procedure can be improved by a consonant procedure. Exact critical constants of this new procedure can be numerically determined. The zeroth-order approximations to the exact critical constants, albeit slightly…

纳入基线协变量的半参数自然直接效应模型估计AI 解读

Establishing cause-effect relationships is a standard goal of empirical science. Once the presence of a causal relationship is established, the precise causal mechanism involved becomes a topic of interest. A particularly popular type of mechanism analysis concerns questions of mediation, that is to what extent an effect is direct, and to what extent it is mediated by a third variable. A semiparametric theory has recently been proposed which allows multiply robust estimation…

Q-learning 的交互式模型构建AI 解读

Evidence-based rules for optimal treatment allocation are key components in the quest for efficient, effective health care delivery. Q-learning, an approximate dynamic programming algorithm, is a popular method for estimating optimal sequential decision rules from data. Q-learning requires the modeling of nonsmooth, nonmonotone transformations of the data, complicating the search for adequately expressive, yet parsimonious, statistical models. The default Q-learning working…

球对称误差线性模型中的稳健贝叶斯变量选择AI 解读

This paper studies Bayesian variable selection in linear models with general spherically symmetric error distributions. We construct the posterior odds based on a separable prior, which arises as a class of mixtures of Gaussian densities. The posterior odds for comparing among nonnull models are shown to be independent of the error distribution, if this is spherically symmetric. Because of this invariance, we refer to our method as a robust Bayesian variable selection…

不可分解椭圆图模型的稳健估计量AI 解读

Robust estimators of the restricted covariance matrices associated with elliptical graphical models are studied. General asymptotic results, which apply to both decomposable and nondecomposable graphical models, are presented for robust plug-in type estimators. These extend results previously established only for the decomposable case. Furthermore, a class of graphical M-estimators for the restricted covariance matrices is introduced and compared with the corresponding…

利用失败联系记录校正不可忽略无应答的半参数极大似然推断AI 解读

In marketing research, social science and epidemiological studies, call-back of nonrespondents is standard. If respondents and nonrespondents tend to give different answers, the missing data are called nonignorable, and using them alone may produce biased results. To extend earlier work on nonresponse in the presence of call-backs, Alho (1990) proposed modelling the probability of response at each attempt through logistic regression, where outcomes of interest and covariates…

关系数据的非参数贝叶斯动态建模AI 解读

Symmetric binary matrices representing relations are collected in many areas. Our focus is on dynamically evolving binary relational matrices, with interest being on inference on the relationship structure and prediction. We propose a nonparametric Bayesian dynamic model, which reduces dimensionality in characterizing the binary matrix through a lower-dimensional latent space representation, with the latent coordinates evolving in continuous time via Gaussian processes. By…

带置信保障的分类AI 解读

A framework for classification is developed with a notion of confidence. In this framework, a classifier consists of two tolerance regions in the predictor space, with a specified coverage level for each class. The classifier also produces an ambiguous region where the classification needs further investigation. Theoretical analysis reveals interesting structures of the confidence-ambiguity trade-off, and the optimal solution is characterized by extending the Neyman–Pearson…

变换后的充分降维AI 解读

We propose a general framework for dimension reduction in regression to fill the gap between linear and fully nonlinear dimension reduction. The main idea is to first transform each of the raw predictors monotonically and then search for a low-dimensional projection in the space defined by the transformed variables. Both user-specified and data-driven transformations are suggested. In each case, the methodology is first discussed in generality and then a representative…

更强正则化何时意味着更少自由度？充分条件与反例AI 解读

Regularization aims to improve prediction performance by trading an increase in training error for better agreement between training and prediction errors, which is often captured through decreased degrees of freedom. In this paper we give examples which show that regularization can increase the degrees of freedom in common models, including the lasso and ridge regression. In such situations, both training error and degrees of freedom increase, making the regularization…

一般类型—词例分布AI 解读

We consider the problem of estimating the number of types in a corpus using the number of types observed in a sample of tokens from that corpus. We derive exact and asymptotic distributions for the number of observed types, conditioned on the number of tokens and the latent type distribution. We use the asymptotic distributions to derive an estimator of the latent number of types and validate this estimator numerically.

有限维 higher criticism 检验的解析 p 值计算AI 解读

The higher criticism test is effective for testing a joint null hypothesis against a sparse alternative, e.g., for testing the effect of a gene or genetic pathway that consists of d genetic markers. Accurate p-value calculations for the higher criticism test based on the asymptotic distribution require a very large d, which is not the case for the number of genetic variants in a gene or a pathway. In this paper we propose an analytical method for accurately computing the…

组成型协变量回归中的变量选择AI 解读

Motivated by research problems arising in the analysis of gut microbiome and metagenomic data, we consider variable selection and estimation in high-dimensional regression with compositional covariates. We propose an ℓ1 regularization method for the linear log-contrast model that respects the unique features of compositional data. We formulate the proposed procedure as a constrained convex optimization problem and introduce a coordinate descent method of multipliers for…

线性模型中的独立性与拟合优度检验AI 解读

We consider a linear regression model and propose an omnibus test to simultaneously check the assumption of independence between the error and predictor variables and the goodness-of-fit of the parametric model. Our approach is based on testing for independence between the predictor and the residual obtained from the parametric fit by using the Hilbert–Schmidt independence criterion (Gretton et al., 2008). The proposed method requires no user-defined regularization, is…

风险差的广义 Cornfield 条件AI 解读

A central question in causal inference with observational studies is the sensitivity of conclusions to unmeasured confounding. The classical Cornfield condition allows us to assess whether an unmeasured binary confounder can explain away the observed relative risk of the exposure on the outcome. It states that for an unmeasured confounder to explain away an observed relative risk, the association between the unmeasured confounder and the exposure and the association between…

多线性主成分分析中 Kronecker 包络模型的检验AI 解读

We develop likelihood methods for the Kronecker envelope model in the principal components analysis of matrix observations that have a multivariate normal distribution. Maximum likelihood estimates are derived and the associated likelihood ratio statistic for a test of this Knonecker envelope model is obtained. The asymptotic null distribution of the likelihood ratio statistic is derived as some nuisance parameters approach infinity, and a saddlepoint approximation for this…

近似贝叶斯计算 MCMC 核的方差有界性与几何遍历性AI 解读

Approximate Bayesian computation has emerged as a standard computational tool when dealing with intractable likelihood functions in Bayesian inference. We show that many common Markov chain Monte Carlo kernels used to facilitate inference in this setting can fail to be variance bounding and hence geometrically ergodic, which can have consequences for the reliability of estimates in practice. This phenomenon is typically independent of the choice of tolerance in the…

单变量与多变量群组检测数据的非参数及半参数回归新方法AI 解读

We consider nonparametric and semiparametric estimation of a conditional probability curve in the case of group testing data, where the individuals are pooled randomly into groups and only the pooled data are available. We derive a nonparametric weighted estimator that has optimality properties accounting for group sizes, and show how to extend it to multivariate settings, including the partially linear model. In the group testing context, it is natural to assume that the…

通过有效平衡得分估计响应均值AI 解读

We introduce effective balancing scores for estimation of the mean response under a missing at random mechanism. Unlike conventional balancing scores, the effective balancing scores are constructed via dimension reduction free of model specification. Three types of effective balancing scores are introduced: those that carry the covariate information about the missingness, the response, or both. They lead to consistent estimation with little or no loss in efficiency. Compared…

简便的放松条件似然方法AI 解读

When the data are sparse but not exceedingly so, we face a trade-off between bias and precision that makes the usual choice between conducting either a fully unconditional inference or a fully conditional inference unduly restrictive. We propose a method to relax the conditional inference that relies upon commonly available computer outputs. In the rectangular array asymptotic setting, the relaxed conditional maximum likelihood estimator has smaller bias than the…

椭圆对称分布下空间符号协方差矩阵的渐近不可容许性AI 解读

The asymptotic efficiency of the spatial sign covariance matrix relative to affine equivariant estimators of scatter is studied. In particular, the spatial sign covariance matrix is shown to be asymptotically inadmissible, i.e., the asymptotic covariance matrix of the consistency-corrected spatial sign covariance matrix is uniformly larger than that of its affine equivariant counterpart, namely Tyler’s scatter matrix. Although the spatial sign covariance matrix has often…

中等高维数据中复相关系数的统计推断AI 解读

When the multiple correlation coefficient is used to measure how strongly a given variable can be linearly associated with a set of covariates, it suffers from an upward bias that cannot be ignored in the presence of a moderately high dimensional covariate. Under an independent component model, we derive an asymptotic approximation to the distribution of the squared multiple correlation coefficient that depends on a simple correction factor. We show that this approximation…

方差未知时最佳等变预测密度的不可容许性AI 解读

This work treats the problem of estimating the predictive density of a random vector when both the mean vector and the variance are unknown. We prove that the density of reference in this context is inadmissible under the Kullback–Leibler loss in a nonasymptotic framework. Our result holds even when the dimension of the vector is strictly lower than three, which is surprising compared to the known variance setting. Finally, we discuss the relationship between the prediction…