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Graphical comparison of cumulative hazards for two populations

两个总体累积风险的图形比较

We consider graphs, confidence procedures and tests that can be used with censored survival data to compare the hazard experience of a treatment group with that of a control group. In particular, we consider the relative change Δ(t) in a cumulative rate function which is used to define a generalized proportional hazard model. This model is equivalent to the model obtained by introducing a gamma distributed frailty term in the proportional hazard model. We introduce an…

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Assessing influence on regression coefficients in generalized linear models

广义线性模型回归系数的影响诊断

Suggested diagnostics for influence on the estimated regression coefficients in a generalized linear model have generally approximated the effect of deleting a single case. We apply the local influence method of Cook (1986) to assess the effect of small perturbations of the data, including the vector of responses, case weights, explanatory variables, and the components of one case. The resulting diagnostics allow one to check for different kinds of influence, and may give…

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Predictive fit for natural exponential families

自然指数族的预测拟合

The paper examines predictive distributions, concentrating on measuring their fit to the true distribution by average KulLback–Leibler divergence. The notion of an ‘averaged bootstrap’ predictive distribution is introduced. This predictive distribution is shown to be asymptotically superior to the estimative distribution, in terms of average Kullback–Leibler divergence, when the true distribution is in a natural exponential family. Small-sample results are presented for the…

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Is the ‘improved likelihood ratio statistic’ really improved in the discrete case?

离散情形中的“改进似然比统计量”真的改进了吗?

On the basis of some numerical studies we argue that Bartlett adjustment of the likelihood ratio statistic for discrete data does not in general yield an improvement in the asymptotic error rate of the chi-squared approximation. Also we argue that the small-sample effect of the Bartlett adjustment is unclear and that it is in no way comparable with the improvement obtained for continuous data.

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Maximum likelihood estimation of convex arrival rate

凸到达率的最大似然估计

It is commonly believed that failures of a repairable system follow a time dependent Poisson process with ‘bathtub-shaped’ arrival rate. A natural problem then is maximum likelihood estimation of arrival rate subject to the constraint that it be convex. This paper employs theoretical considerations to reduce that task to a finite dimensional nonlinear programming problem and completes the solution by computer. The resulting estimates are interesting graphical presentations…

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Conditions under which canonical correlation and redundancy maximization produce identical results

典型相关与冗余最大化产生相同结果的条件

Redundancy analysis was proposed as an alternative to canonical correlation (van den Wollen-berg, 1977). The following paper examines the conditions under which canonical correlation and redundancy analysis produce identical solutions. It is shown that identical results are possible when all nonzero eigenvalues of the correlation matrix of the criterion variables are equal. As a special case, when there is only one canonical root or when all criterion variables are…

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On efficient bootstrap simulation

高效 bootstrap 模拟

It is shown that three new, efficient bootstrap algorithms are asymptotically equivalent. This is done in two ways. First, asymptotic formulae for variances and mean squared errors are derived, and shown to be identical. Secondly, it is demonstrated that two of the methods may be viewed as approximations to the third. The three algorithms considered are the balanced bootstrap and the linear approximation method proposed by Davison, Hinkley & Schechtman (1986), and a centring…

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The estimation of a location parameter when the scale parameter is confined to a finite range: The notion of a generalized ancillary statistic

尺度参数限于有限范围时的位置估计:广义辅助统计量

The estimation of the location parameter θ in a location-scale model is considered when the scale parameter σ is confined to a finite range. The application to robustness considerations and some implications for conditional inference are discussed.

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Bayesian inference for a bivariate binomial distribution

二元二项分布的贝叶斯推断

A bivariate distribution is investigated in connection with an application in microbiology. It has binomial marginal and conditional distributions. The parameter structure is examined, and it is shown that a conjugate Bayesian prior distribution arises from prior independence specifications. Under these specifications the usual limiting conjugate prior can be obtained via invariance considerations.

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On goodness-of-fit tests for the two-parameter Weibull distribution derived from the stabilized probability plot

基于稳定化概率图的双参数Weibull分布拟合优度检验

Michael's statistic Dsp, based on the stabilized probability plot, is considered for the assessment of goodness of fit of a two-parameter Weibull distribution. This statistic is shown to have high power when the parameters are estimated using a procedure due to Blom (1958). The correlation coefficient of the stabilized plot, Rsp, is also proposed as a test statistic for this situation. Finally a family of transformations is obtained to reduce the null distribution of Rsp to…

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Latent class analysis of two-way contingency tables by Bayesian methods

二维列联表潜类别分析的贝叶斯方法

Latent class analysis in two-way contingency tables usually suffers from unidentifiability problems. These an be overcome by using Bayesian techniques in which prior distributions are assumed on the latent parameters. Application of these techniques, however, involves some unusual computational difficulties. Bayesian techniques suitable for latent class analyses together with a remedy to the computational difficulties are discussed in this paper.

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Decomposition of maximum likelihood in mixed graphical interaction models

混合图交互模型中最大似然估计的分解

We show how decompositions of marked graphs induce corresponding decompositions of maximum likelihood estimates in mixed graphical interaction models. We use this result to obtain explicit formulae for the estimates in decomposable models and to obtain factorizations of likelihood ratio statistics.

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The weighted residual technique for estimating the variance of the general regression estimator of the finite population total

估计有限总体总量的一般回归估计量方差的加权残差法

The paper deals with design based estimation of the variance of the general regression estimator of the finite population total. The usual Taylor linearization variance estimator is an expression in the design weighted regression residuals; in many applications the resulting expression is counterintuitive from a model based standpoint. The improved variance estimator in this paper attaches another simple weight, called ‘g-weight’, to each individual residual. This new…

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Comparison of parametric and empirical likelihood functions

参数似然与经验似然函数的比较

In this paper, parametric and empirical likelihood functions or surfaces are compared. In particular, first- and second-order expansions for log likelihood functions are developed in nonparametric and parametric situations, where the functional of interest is a smooth function of vector means. The two approaches are compared and the precise order of difference between the nonparametric and parametric log likelihood functions is obtained. In general, the surfaces need not…

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Importance sampling and the nested bootstrap

重要性抽样与嵌套自助法

The nested bootstrap is a computer-intensive technique for reducing the statistical error in the ordinary bootstrap. We show how the Monte Carlo technique of importance sampling can be used to substantially reduce the amount of computation needed in a simple double bootstrap confidence limit method.

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Approximate marginal densities of nonlinear functions

非线性函数的边际密度近似

This paper presents an asymptotic approximation for the marginal density of a nonlinear function g(θ) that is applicable when the joint density of θ is dominated by a single mode and the Jacobian of g is of full rank near that mode. The approximation is based on Laplace's method and its asymptotic properties are similar to those of the saddlepoint approximation. The approximation is applied to the computation of a marginal posterior density, a marginal sampling density and a…

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Adaptive test for white noise

白噪声的自适应检验

Since conventional tests for white noise are completely insensitive to certain alternatives, it is difficult in a particular application to decide which test to use if one has no a priori information about the kind of departure from whiteness. Therefore, an alternative test is proposed which may be applied in case of arbitrary stationary alternatives. This test procedure is adaptive in that first the real part of the finite Fourier transform of the data is used to choose…

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Restricted unbiased iterative generalized least-squares estimation

It is shown that the iterative least-squares procedure for estimating the parameters in a general multilevel random coefficients linear model can be modified to produce unbiased estimates of the random parameters. In the multivariate normal case these are equivalent to restricted maximum likelihood estimates.

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A family of nonparametric statistics for comparing diagnostic markers with paired or unpaired data

比较配对或非配对诊断指标的一类非参数统计量

In this paper we study a broad class of nonparametric statistics for comparing two diagnostic markers. One can compare the sensitivities of these diagnostic markers over restricted ranges of specificity by selecting an appropriate statistic from this class. As special cases, one can compare the entire area under the receiver-operator curve (Hanley & McNeil, 1982), or one can compare the sensitivities at a fixed common specificity. Usually we would recommend a comparison…

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An approximate likelihood ratio test for a normal mean vector with nonnegative components with application to clinical trials

非负分量正态均值向量的近似似然比检验及临床试验应用

A new multivariate statistic, designed to be sensitive to the alternative hypothesis that a mean vector lies in the positive orthant, rather than to all alternatives or to alternatives on a line (O'Brien, 1984), is proposed. The statistic is shown to approximate the likelihood ratio test statistic for such alternatives (Kudô, 1963; Perlman, 1969). Its null distribution is a special case of the chi-bar-squared distribution, which allows critical values to be obtained. Such a…

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Autoregressive frequency estimation

自回归频率估计

Presume that an autoregressive model of given order is fitted to data obtained from a realization of a sinusoidal signal embedded in white noise. This paper investigates the statistical properties of the estimate of the frequency of the signal obtained by minimizing the transfer function of the autoregression. Strong consistency and convergence in distribution of the estimate are established when the order of the autoregression is allowed to increase with sample size at an…

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A comparative study of ordinary cross-validation, v -fold cross-validation and the repeated learning-testing methods

普通交叉验证、v折交叉验证与重复学习—测试方法的比较

Concepts of v-fold cross validation and repeated learning-testing methods have been introduced here. In many problems, these methods are computationally much less expensive than ordinary cross-validation and can be used in its place. A comparative study of these three methods has been carried out in detail.

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Adjustments to profile likelihood

剖面似然的调整

Conditional and marginal likelihoods constructed from parameter-dependent functions of the data have an additional parameter dependence that changes with the choice of supporting metric for the corresponding densities. We consider constructing marginal and conditional likelihoods by using densities expressed in terms of an instrinsic choice of support measure, based on either Euclidean metric or the constant information metric. Barndorff-Nielsen's (1983) approximation to the…

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