日期精度：到日 13 篇 · 到月 1359 篇 · 到年 4 篇
N-kernel 软件评述
Abstract The package performs estimation and prediction in the context of time‐series or cross‐section nonparametric models. It is menu‐driven and very easy to operate. The manual reads well. This version has some limitations, which can easily be corrected. Nevertheless it provides a useful pedagogical and research tool, even for people not familiar with nonparametric analysis.
工作离职的动态：联邦雇员案例
Abstract In this paper we develop a model of workers' quit decisions . Using panel data on a sample of US Federal government employees we use maximum‐likelihood techniques to determine how much of the observed decline in quits with job tenure is a result of declining individual quit propensities (‘state dependence’) rather than dynamic sample self‐selection (‘heterogeneity’). The latter is found to be much more important than the former. The effects of relative Federal…
渐近最小二乘估计的效率问题及应用
Abstract This paper is concerned with the large sample efficiency of the asymptotic least‐squares (ALS) estimators introduced by Gouriéroux, Monfort, and Trognon (1982, 1985) and Chamberlain (1982, 1984). We show how the efficiency of these estimators is affected when additional information is incorporated into the estimation procedure. The relationship between ALS and maximum likelihood is discussed. It is shown that ALS can be used to obtain asymptotically efficient…
从 VAR 模型到结构模型：工资—价格螺旋的应用
Abstract In this paper a VAR model is considered as a general framework in which a structural model can be tested. We carefully describe the hypotheses defining a structural model; this leads us to discuss various notions such as: predeterminedness, non‐causality, exogeneity, contemporaneous identification, overall identification, weak and strong structural forms. Then we propose a test procedure, based on the asymptotic least‐squares method, which allows successive testing…
个人收入分布：新模型的构建及其对美国收入数据的应用
Abstract This paper proposes a four‐parameter statistical model of the personalized distribution of income using the ‘income share elasticity’ approach suggested by Esteban (1986). Our proposed model includes the Singh–Maddala (1976) and Dagum (1977) distributions as special cases. The generalized beta II distribution of McDonald (1984) is also a variant of this model. It appears to give an excellent fit to US income data and its empirical performance turns out to be…
英国抵押贷款市场中配给的测量与结构变化处理
Abstract UK mortgage markets have undergone major structural changes in the past few years, resulting in mortgages no longer being rationed. The ending of rationing has implications for the specification of empirical models of housing demand. Housing models have never adequately resolved how to incorporate unobservable mortgage rationing. Conventional proxy methods are particularly unsuitable, when rationing ceases. In this paper, we propose a new way of measuring rationing…
计量模型随机模拟中误差过程的替代设定
Abstract This paper analyses the stochastic simulation of econometric models using three different methods for specifying the probability distribution of the structural error terms. The impact of these different assumptions on the simulation bias and model variance is explored empirically. Monte Carlo variance reduction techniques are used to distinguish the effects of the different specifications.
半参数效率界
Abstract Semiparametric models are those where the functional form of some components is unknown. Efficiency bounds are of fundamental importance for such models. They provide a guide to estimation methods and give an asymptotic efficiency standard. The purpose of this paper is to provide an introduction to research methods and problems for semiparametric efficiency bounds. The nature of the bounds is discussed, as well as ways of calculating them. Their uses in solving…
经济效率的测量
Abstract This paper considers a system consisting of a production frontier and factor share equations to measure firm‐specific technical efficiency and input‐specific allocative efficiency simulataneously. In estimating the system as a whole, the joint distribution of all errors in the equations is used. This is more efficient than using the marginal distribution of a function of the errors as one does by estimating either the profit function of the production function…
非平衡面板下随机前沿系统的估计：埃及地砖制造业案例
Abstract A generalized stochastic frontier system is fitted with unbalanced panel data of Egyptian floor tileries and estimated using OLS, ‘within’, feasible GLS, and maximum likelihood. Hausman tests indicate ‘within’ is the correct estimator for the data. Estimates of firm‐level technical and allocative inefficiencies (and their costs) are presented for each of the estimators. Finally, sources of technical inefficiency are investigated.
误差修正模型的解释：部分调整、前瞻行为与国际动态货币需求
Abstract An error correction model is derived from a stochastic dynamic programming problem incorporating rational expectations. A parametric restriction is derived that allows a test for the theoretical proposition that the optimal strategy behind the error correction from entails the failure to asymptotically close the gap between the choice variable and the growing target. This is accomplished by nesting a partial adjustment model with forward‐looking expectations within…
持续期与竞争风险模型的灵活参数估计
Abstract In this paper we specify and estimate a flexible parametric proportional hazards model. The model specification is flexibly parametric in the sense that the baseline hazard is non parametric while the effect of the covariates takes a particular functional form. We also add parametric heterogeneity to the underlying hazard model specification. We specify a flexible parametric proportional competing risks model which permits unrestricted correlation among the risks.…
删失回归模型的设定检验：参数与半参数方法
We define a hierarchy of parametric and semiparametric specifications for censored regression models that is ordered according to the strength of the assumptions that are made. We review the estimation techniques and specification tests that are available at each level of the hierarchy. The estimation and testing procedures are illustrated by applying them to a model of strike duration. Several tests (some graphical) are able to detect errors in standard parametric…
基于个体数据的模型诊断检验：综述
This paper surveys the growing literature on diagnostic testing of models based on unit record data. We argue that while many of these tests are produced in a Lagrange multiplier framework they are often more readily derived, and more easily applied, if approached from the conditional moment testing view of Newey (1985) and Tauchen (1985). In addition we propose some new tests based on comparisons of parametric estimators with nonparametric estimators which are consistent…
规划、批评与修订
This paper presents a more complete theory of data analysis which allows for changes in the state of mind of the observer and also for approximations that limit planning costs. Discussion is included on the form that criticism should take, and the extent to which planned responses to the data can legitimately be revised after the data are reviewed. The proper role of diagnostics is discussed. Some diagnostic statistics are genuinely criticisms, but many are pre-test…
利用多重协整与非对称误差修正模型研究生产、销售和库存关系
The accumulated sum of a stationary series is called integrated. If a linear combination of some of the integrated series is stationary, it is said to be cointegrated. This paper presents empirical results on inventories to consider the possibility of a deeper form of cointegration called multicointegration, which is introduced in Granger and Lee (1989). A vector integrated series is multicointegrated if the accumulated sum of its stationary (cointegrated) linear combination…
MS/PC-DOS 计算机上的生存分析软件
Abstract There exist more than a dozen MS/PC‐DOS programs with the capability of performing some form of survival analysis. Most of these are reviewed here, with respect to (1) the survival analysis methods they cover, (2) their ease of use and flexibility, (3) their user interface, (4) their graphics capabilities, and (5) their computational accuracy.
数据扩展的统计性质
Abstract This research examines the properties of an estimation procedure frequently used because observations on some variables are available only at higher levels of aggregation than others. When this occurs, data are often stretched by repeating observations on variables at higher levels of aggregation. We show that this procedure results in biased estimators of coefficients and error variances. Under some circumstances the estimation based on stretched data has a smaller…
半参数 Tobit 估计量的蒙特卡洛比较
Abstract This paper focuses on a performance comparison of semiparametric Tobit estimators. Firstly, a conditional expectation version of Horowitz's distribution‐free least‐squares estimator is proposed, together with a short description of the other estimators considered in the later Monte Carlo experiment. Then, a performance comparison of the following selected estimators is made through a Monte Carlo experiment: the standard Tobit maximum‐likelihood estimator, the…
漫步吉布森悖论：随机游走视角
Abstract Evidence to support the Gibson paradox is often given in the form of a simple correlation between the nominal interest rate and the log of price level, or in the form of a simple linear regression between these two variables. Authors then show, using standard procedures of statistical inference, that the price level possesses a significant coefficient. We argue that this class of evidence is spurious since the nominal interest rate and the price level (both…
因变量在部分样本期外生时的一致估计
Abstract This paper proposes a consistent estimation method for regression equations with a left‐hand variable that is endogenous for some observations, and exogenous for others. This method is applied to the estimation of a demand‐for‐money function for Switzerland over a time interval which includes periods of monetary control; that is periods when the quantity of money can best be viewed as exogenous.
英国企业就业与产出决策的定性响应分析
Abstract This paper investigates firms' employment and output decisions and presents some empirical evidence concerning the rationality of firms' expectations. The dymanic model is based on the assumptions of convex adjustment costs and monopolistic competition in the product market. The results are obtained using categorical information on individual firms contained in business surveys collected by the Confederation of British Industry. Ordered probit models are used to…
结构时间序列分析与建模软件包评述
Abstract This package performs specialized tasks related to specification, estimation, prediction and diagnostic checking in the context of a particular class of unobserved‐components models. It is menu‐driven and easy to use. Although the present (first) release suffers from a number of limitations, omissions and bugs, it is nevertheless a useful tool in the hands of a knowledgeable user.