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居民用电实时定价：一项实验的计量分析AI 解读

Under real-time pricing, a network operator sets the price level for a period according to a predefined scheme which depends on the state of demand and costs, and announces this price shortly before the period begins. The French state-owned electric utility experimented with a six-rate real-time tariff, which divides the year into three types of days and each day into two periods. The number of days of each type is known in advance to the consumer, but the type of any…

利用间接推断分析不完整的个人就业经历AI 解读

In this paper we apply the Indirect Inference method to estimate the parameters of a semi-Markov transition model when the data are subject to a complex form of censoring. There is no explicit expression for the likelihood function, and therefore Maximum Likelihood estimation is computationally burdensome. The econometric methodology of Indirect Inference is first tested on simulated data under various assumptions about the distribution of spell durations and transitions.…

含异质性的均衡工资分布估计AI 解读

Equilibrium search models generalize the one-sided models used earlier by endogenizing the wage offer distribution. Attempts to estimate versions of these equilibrium n search models have been unsuccessful, ironically because the predicted wage distribution did not fit the wage data. In this paper we extend the applicability of search models by introducing firm heterogeneity to account for the shape of the wage density. The resulting estimation problem is difficult, but we…

美国东南部木材企业采伐决策研究AI 解读

In the forestry literature, stochastic extensions of the classic Faustmann model have become the predominant models of optimal harvesting on even-aged timber stands. A recent attempt to estimate a stochastic version of the Faustmann model left several puzzling results unexplained (Provencher, 1995). This paper reports on new estimation and analyses undertaken to resolve these puzzles. Of particular note is the result that the value of using correct price forecasts in the…

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分组持续时间数据的一类二元响应模型AI 解读

Abstract This paper explores the relationship between conventional models for binary response such as the probit and logit, and the proportional hazard (PH) and related specifications for grouped duration data. I outline a general class of hazard models for grouped duration data based upon the choice of period‐specific distribution functions, facilitating a thorough analysis of the implications of various specifications and consideration of various issues of model…

使用前馈与循环神经网络预测汇率AI 解读

Abstract In this paper we investigate the out‐of‐sample forecasting ability of feedforward and recurrent neural networks based on empirical foreign exchange rate data. A two‐step procedure is proposed to construct suitable networks, in which networks are selected based on the predictive stochastic complexity (PSC) criterion, and the selected networks are estimated using both recursive Newton algorithms and the method of nonlinear least squares. Our results show that PSC is a…

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GARCH 稳定分布模型的极大似然估计AI 解读

Abstract Maximum likelihood is used to estimate a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) process where the residuals have a conditional stable distribution (GARCH‐stable). The scale parameter is modelled such that a GARCH process with normally distributed residuals is a special case. The usual methods of estimating the parameters of the stable distribution assume constant scale and will underestimate the characteristic exponent when the scale…

汇率鞅假设的谱检验AI 解读

Abstract A new family of spectral shape tests was proposed recently by Durlauf (1991) for testing the martingale hypothesis. Unlike the widely used variance ratio test, spectral shape tests are consistent against all stationary non‐white‐noise alternatives from the martingale null. In this paper we examine the finite sample properties of the spectral shape tests and find that the tests have good size and power properties even for small samples. We apply the tests to examine…

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个人收入分布：再考察AI 解读

Abstract In a recent paper, Majumder and Chakravarty (1990) propose a four‐parameter model which they find provides a better fit to some income data than the lognormal, gamma, Singh‐Maddala, Dagum, and generalized beta of the second kind (GB2) distributions. This note (1) demonstrates that the model proposed by Majumder and Chakravarty is a reparameterization of the GB2 and (2) reconciles the corresponding contradictory empirical findings reported by Majumder and Chakravarty.

有限因变量联立方程的半参数估计：女性劳动供给案例AI 解读

Abstract We propose a general strategy to estimate semi‐parametrically simultaneous equations with limited dependent variables. First, each reduced form (RF) is estimated with various semi‐parametric methods. Second, the specification of each RF is tested to select an appropriate method. Third, the structural form (SF) equations are estimated using minimum distance methods and the restrictions among the SF and RF parameters. A case study of female labour supply is presented.

将定性调查回答转化为定量预期的方法：澳大利亚制造业应用AI 解读

Abstract This paper analyses and extends alternative procedures for converting qualitative expectations responses to quantitative expectations. A number of conversion procedures is investigated, including the probability model, the time‐varying parameter probability model, and the regression approach. The informational content of the survey expectations is compared with simple time series models. It is found that the expectations models are superior for many series, both in…

解释变量非平稳时需求系统的齐次性检验AI 解读

Abstract An implication of optimizing theory is that demand functions are homogeneous of degree zero in prices and nominal income. Evidence based on estimations of demand systems has repeatedly found this restriction to be rejected by the data. However, the hypothesis is often formulated in terms of regressors that are non‐stationary. This paper re‐examines the evidence for homogeneity in light of recent developments in time‐series econometrics with special emphasis on the…

协整系统中的预测AI 解读

Abstract We consider the implications for forecast accuracy of imposing unit roots and cointegrating restrictions in linear systems of I (1) variables in levels, differences, and cointegrated combinations. Asymptotic formulae are obtained for multi‐step forecast error variances for each representation. Alternative measures of forecast accuracy are discussed. Finite sample behaviour in a bivariate model is studied by Monte Carlo using control variables. We also analyse the…

国际产出的收敛AI 解读

Abstract This paper proposes and tests new definitions of convergence and common trends for per capita output. We define convergence for a group of countries to mean that each country has identical long‐run trends, either stochastic or deterministic, while common trends allow for proportionality of the stochastic elements. These definitions lead naturally to the use of cointegration techniques in testing. Using century‐long time series for 15 OECD economies, we reject…

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医疗需求证明监管与创新扩散：随机系数模型AI 解读

Abstract In this paper, we examine empirically the effect that certificate‐of‐need regulation by state health planning organizations has had on the speed of diffusion of a relatively new medical technology—haemodialysis. Specifically, we test the hypothesis that a requirement that investments be subject to certificate‐of‐need review has significantly slowed the rate of adoption of this particular treatment modality. In subjecting this hypothesis to empirical verification, we…

瑞典社会保险办事机构的劳动使用效率AI 解读

Abstract This paper considers the estimation of frontier production functions in panel data models. It proposes a multi‐stage method to obtain estimates of (1) the parameters of a flexible input requirement function and (2) technical inefficiency decomposed into time‐invariant (firm‐specific), time‐varying, and the residual components. The proposed method is used to analyse labour‐use efficiency of Swedish local social insurance offices on the basis of a large panel of…

时变贴现因子现值模型的协整检验AI 解读

Abstract The paper analyses the impact of persistence and volatility in the discount rate in present‐value models on cointegration tests in levels and in logarithms. In simulations we find that the probability of not rejecting the null of no cointegration depends on the persistence of the discount rate process and can be very high when the expected returns process is highly persistent. In contrast, the cointegration tests are very robust with respect to the level of…

校准模型中的统计推断AI 解读

This paper describes a Monte Carlo procedure to assess the performance of calibrated dynamic general equilibrium models. The procedure formalizes the choice of parameters and the evaluation of the model and provides an efficient way to conduct a sensitivity analysis for perturbations of the parameters within a reasonable range. As an illustration the methodology is applied to two problems: the equity premium puzzle and how much of the variance of actual U.S. output is…

真实经济周期模型的周期特征AI 解读

This paper tests the well-known real business cycle model of Kydland and Prescott (1988), using spectral methods for linear filters. Model spectra, coherencies, phase shifts, and correlations are tested against U.S. post-war data using both asymptotic and small-sample distributions. Compared with the model, the data have shorter business cycles, smaller co-movements of different macro variables, and less of a leading role for output. Copyright 1994 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.