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多重预测涵盖检验AI 解读

In the evaluation of economic forecasts, it is frequently the case that comparisons are made between a number of competing predictors. A natural question to ask in such contexts is whether one forecast encompasses its competitors, in the sense that they contain no useful information not present in the superior forecast. We develop tests for this notion of multiple forecast encompassing which are robust to properties expected in the forecast errors, and apply the tests to…

使用 Octave 进行计量经济学计算AI 解读

GNU Octave is an open-source implementation of a (mostly Matlab compatible) high-level language for numerical computations. This review briefly introduces Octave, discusses applications of Octave in an econometric context, and illustrates how to extend Octave with user-supplied C++ code. Several examples are provided. Copyright � 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

全球铝冶炼厂的成本与技术结构AI 解读

A cost model is developed for the estimation of several technological parameters describing the production process of aluminium smelters worldwide. The model is similar to Baltagi and Griffin's (1988), but, instead of estimating technological change using a panel data set of firms, we estimate, among other things, the vintage effect, using a cross-section of aluminium smelters in operation throughout 1994. The vintage effect is defined as the variable cost differential that…

全球铝冶炼厂的成本与技术结构AI 解读

A cost model is developed for the estimation of several technological parameters describing the production process of aluminium smelters worldwide. The model is similar to Baltagi and Griffin's (1988), but, instead of estimating technological change using a panel data set of firms, we estimate, among other things, the vintage effect, using a cross-section of aluminium smelters in operation throughout 1994. The vintage effect is defined as the variable cost differential that…

使用 GMM 自助法考察地方政府的动态行为AI 解读

Even though recent Monte Carlo evidence has shown that the use of bootstrap critical values, instead of asymptotic ones, improves the size of the tests substantially, empirical applications using GMM bootstrap techniques are largely missing. In this paper, the dynamic relationship between local government revenues and expenditures is re-investigated using GMM bootstrapping techniques on a panel of 265 Swedish municipalities over the period 1979-1987. A lag of one year is…

英国护理职业中的性别、族群、薪酬与晋升：广义有序 Probit 模型AI 解读

We analyse job grading within the UK National Health Service nursing profession, using 1994 survey data. We start from the ordered probit model, for which we develop and apply appropriate specification tests. Threshold constancy and covariate exogeneity are rejected, with important consequences for estimates of the influence of gender, ethnicity, training and career interruptions. We find little evidence of disadvantage for females relative to males, but significant…

不完全信息与消费的时间序列行为AI 解读

Pischke (1995) uses both microeconomic and macroeconomic US data to test the idea that, within an otherwise standard PIH framework, ignorance by agents of aggregate labour income can account for the observed degree of excess smoothness and sensitivity in consumption. His tests involve only the second moments of aggregate consumption and labour income. In this paper our main aim is to identify and test the restrictions his model implies for aggregate consumption dynamics,…

Box–Cox 分位数回归与企业规模分布AI 解读

Using the Box–Cox quantile regression model, we analyse the size distribution of firms in Portuguese manufacturing during the 1980s. Specifically, we estimate the effect of selected industry attributes on the location, scale, skewness and kurtosis of the conditional size distributions of firms. We find that industry attributes affect the size of firms in the same direction across the distribution, but the effects of these variables are typically much greater at the largest…

凯恩斯式冲击与索洛残差：识别经济周期波动来源AI 解读

We employ a neoclassical business-cycle model to study two sources of business-cycle fluctuations: marginal efficiency of investment shocks, and total factor productivity shocks. The parameters of the model are estimated using a Bayesian procedure that accommodates prior uncertainty about their magnitudes; from these estimates, posterior distributions of the two shocks are obtained. The postwar US experience suggests that both shocks are important in understanding…

线性家庭技术AI 解读

This paper discusses, estimates and formally compares the best known procedures for incorporating demographic variables into complete demand systems. In particular, a class of general procedures belonging to Gorman's family of 'general linear household technologies' is introduced. Estimation and comparison of different procedures make use of Italian household budget data for the years 1973-1992, incorporating a single demographic variable (family size) into a Generalized…

配电规模经济的半参数分析AI 解读

We estimate the costs of distributing electricity using data on municipal electric utilities in Ontario, Canada for the period 1993-5. The data reveal substantial evidence of increasing returns to scale with minimum efficient scale being achieved by firms with about 20,000 customers. Larger firms exhibit constant or decreasing returns. Utilities which deliver additional services (such as water|sewage), have significantly lower costs, indicating the presence of economies of…

随机波动率模型：条件正态分布与厚尾分布AI 解读

Most of the empirical applications of the stochastic volatility (SV) model are based on the assumption that the conditional distribution of returns, given the latent volatility process, is normal. In this paper, the SV model based on a conditional normal distribution is compared with SV specifications using conditional heavy-tailed distributions, especially Student's t-distribution and the generalized error distribution. To estimate the SV specifications, a simulated maximum…

美国赤字的可持续性：基于多个内生断点的新方法AI 解读

Recent empirical work has questioned the consistency of US fiscal policy with an intertemporal budget constraint. Empirical results have tended to indicate that the deficit process has undergone at least one structural shift during recent decades, with the deficit becoming either unsustainable or sustainable in only a weak sense in the post-shift period. In this paper, we re-examine sustainability using a new approach, based on a cointegration model with multiple endogenous…

生产率的渐近完全收敛与相对收敛AI 解读

In this paper we examine the extent to which countries are converging in per capita productivity levels. We propose to use cluster analysis in order to allow for the endogenous selection of converging countries. We formally define convergence in a time series analytical context, derive the necessary and sufficient conditions for convergence, and introduce a cluster analytical procedure that distinguishes several convergence clubs by testing for these conditions using a…

英国消费与生产的商业周期非线性AI 解读

This paper develops non-linear smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) models with two additive smooth transition components to capture the business cycle characteristics of UK real consumers' expenditure and industrial production. The results indicate consumption has essentially two business cycle regimes: recession and expansion. Industrial production, however, is characterized by the three regimes of recession, normal growth and high growth. The transitions describing…

与最优者的多重比较及其经济应用AI 解读

In this paper we discuss a statistical method called multiple comparisons with the best, or MCB. This paper is meant to introduce MCB to economists. We discuss possible uses of MCB in economics. The application that we treat in most detail is the construction of confidence intervals for inefficiency measures from stochastic frontier models with panel data. We also consider an application to the analysis of labour market wage gaps. Copyright � 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

计量软件可靠性与 EViews 非线性估计：评论AI 解读

A recent software review in this journal (McCullough, 1999) raises serious questions about EViews' performance on nonlinear least squares problems. We demonstrate that after correcting errors in the paper and adjusting convergence tolerances, EViews performance was comparable with the other benchmarked software. Copyright � 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

求职理论隐含风险函数形状不等式约束下的半参数持续期模型推断AI 解读

Using a four-month panel of revised Current Population Survey data from September-December 1993, we extend the class of semiparametric hazard models of the type first studied by Prentice and Gloeckler (1978), and brought to the attention of economists by Meyer (1988, 1990), to incorporate inequality restrictions on the shape of the hazard. This extension enables us to test hypotheses regarding the shape of the hazard implied by search theory using duration data alone. These…

贝叶斯分析、计算与交流软件 BACCAI 解读

Bayesian Analysis, Computation and Communication (BACC) is a new Bayesian software package which is linked to Gauss and takes the form of a set of Gauss commands. In this review, I outline a list of qualities that a Bayesian software package should have. I then discuss whether BACC has these qualities in the context of a brief description and an extended example.

对称最低价密封投标拍卖：共同价值与独立私人价值范式的后验赔率比较AI 解读

I attempt to decide, using the posterior odds ratio, whether the symmetric common-value paradigm or the symmetric independent-private-values paradigm is a more probable explanation of the low-price, sealed-bid auctions conducted by the Indian Oil Corporation to purchase crude-oil from the international market. The estimation approach is structural parametric. The auctions are modelled as static non-cooperative games of incomplete information with risk neutral bidders. I…

劳动供给实证模型中相互依赖行为的识别AI 解读

In this paper we test a particular form of interdependent behaviour, namely the hypothesis that individuals' choices of hours of work are influenced by the average hours of work in a social reference group. There are problems in empirically disentangling the effects of interdependent behaviour and preference variation across groups. We show that panel data or data from several points in time are needed. In the empirical analysis we combine cross-section data from 1973, 1980,…

求职理论所隐含风险率形状不等式约束下的半参数持续期模型推断AI 解读

Using a four-month panel of revised Current Population Survey data from September-December 1993, we extend the class of semiparametric hazard models of the type first studied by Prentice and Gloeckler (1978), and brought to the attention of economists by Meyer (1988, 1990), to incorporate inequality restrictions on the shape of the hazard. This extension enables us to test hypotheses regarding the shape of the hazard implied by search theory using duration data alone. These…

协整模型的自适应估计：模拟证据与远期外汇市场应用AI 解读

The paper reports simulation and empirical evidence on the finite-sample performance of adaptive estimators in cointegrated systems. Adaptive estimators are asymptotically efficient, even when the shape of the likelihood function is unknown. We consider two representations of cointegrated systems--triangular cointegrating regressions and error correction models. The motivation for and advantages of adaptive estimators in such systems are discussed and their construction is…

协整似然比检验的数值分布函数AI 解读

This paper employs response surface regressions based on simulation experiments to calculate asymptotic distribution functions for the Johansen-type likelihood ratio tests for cointegration. These are carried out in the context of the models recently proposed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1997) that allow for the possibility of exogenous variables integrated of order one. The paper calculates critical values that are very much more accurate than those available previously.…