日期精度：到日 13 篇 · 到月 1359 篇 · 到年 4 篇
多变量 GARCH 模型综述
Abstract This paper surveys the most important developments in multivariate ARCH‐type modelling. It reviews the model specifications and inference methods, and identifies likely directions of future research. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
股票与债券收益联合分布非线性动态的计量模型
Abstract This paper considers a variety of econometric models for the joint distribution of US stock and bond returns in the presence of regime switching dynamics. While simple two‐ or three‐state models capture the univariate dynamics in bond and stock returns, a more complicated four‐state model with regimes characterized as crash, slow growth, bull and recovery states is required to capture their joint distribution. The transition probability matrix of this model has a…
高中毕业与青年未来失业：来自High School and Beyond的新证据
Abstract In this paper, I provide new evidence from High School and Beyond (HSB) on the effects of compulsory attendance on high school completion and future youth unemployment. I develop Bayesian estimation approaches to the simultaneous equation model with ordered probit and two‐limit censored regression and the bivariate duration model, accounting for the heterogeneity in returns to education and the nonlinearity in the effects of compulsory attendance. I find substantial…
经济发展与人力资本回报：平滑系数半参数方法
Abstract This paper investigates the impact of human capital on the process of economic growth by allowing the contribution of traditional inputs (capital and labour) as well as that of human capital to vary both across countries and time. The former is accomplished by constructing an index of TFP growth for traditional inputs, while the latter through semiparametric methods. We derive estimates of the output elasticity and social return to human capital for 51 countries at…
动态均衡经济的估计：线性与非线性似然比较
Abstract This paper compares two methods for undertaking likelihood‐based inference in dynamic equilibrium economies: a sequential Monte Carlo filter and the Kalman filter. The sequential Monte Carlo filter exploits the nonlinear structure of the economy and evaluates the likelihood function of the model by simulation methods. The Kalman filter estimates a linearization of the economy around the steady state. We report two main results. First, both for simulated and for real…
周期性扩张的贴现债务是否威胁财政政策可持续性？
Abstract This paper models the behaviour of discounted US debt using a Markov‐switching time series model. The significance of modelling fiscal policy within this framework derives from the implications it has for long‐term sustainability. The two‐regime framework used in this paper identifies periods where the present value of US Federal debt is expanding versus periods when it is collapsing. Using an updated data series from Hamilton and Flavin ( 1986 ), a test is…
波动模型的预测比较：有模型能胜过 GARCH(1,1) 吗？
Abstract We compare 330 ARCH‐type models in terms of their ability to describe the conditional variance. The models are compared out‐of‐sample using DM–$ exchange rate data and IBM return data, where the latter is based on a new data set of realized variance. We find no evidence that a GARCH(1,1) is outperformed by more sophisticated models in our analysis of exchange rates, whereas the GARCH(1,1) is clearly inferior to models that can accommodate a leverage effect in our…
美国制造业部门的多层面板平滑转换自回归模型
Abstract We introduce a multi‐level smooth transition model for a panel of time series, which can be used to examine the presence of common nonlinear business cycle features across many variables. The model is positioned in between a fully pooled model, which imposes such common features, and a fully heterogeneous model, which allows for unrestricted nonlinearity. We introduce a second‐stage model linking the parameters that determine the timing of the switches between…
利用二阶整合协整技术检验购买力平价
Abstract This paper contributes to the empirical literature on the purchasing power parity (PPP) over the post‐Bretton Woods period by providing a time‐series based interpretation of the controversial evidence characterizing the dynamics of real exchange rates. It is shown that the persistence of deviations from the PPP between a set of European countries and the United States may be empirically attributed to the presence of I(2) stochastic trends in prices using Consumer…
多方程模型中的半参数贝叶斯推断
Abstract This paper outlines an approach to Bayesian semiparametric regression in multiple equation models which can be used to carry out inference in seemingly unrelated regressions or simultaneous equations models with nonparametric components. The approach treats the points on each nonparametric regression line as unknown parameters and uses a prior on the degree of smoothness of each line to ensure valid posterior inference despite the fact that the number of parameters…
含平稳外生回归变量的协整检验：分布近似
Abstract The distribution of a functional of two correlated vector‐Brownian motions is approximated by a Gamma distribution. This functional represents the limiting distribution for cointegration tests with stationary exogenous regressors, but also for cointegration tests based on a non‐Gaussian likelihood. The approximation is accurate, fast and easy to use in comparison with both tabulated critical values and simulated p ‐values. The proposed procedure is applied to a UK…
语言技能回报的非参数界限
Abstract This paper applies the theoretical literature on nonparametric bounds on treatment effects to the estimation of how limited English proficiency (LEP) affects wages and employment opportunities for Hispanic workers in the United States. I analyse the identifying power of several weak assumptions on treatment response and selection, and stress the interactions between LEP and education, occupation and immigration status. I show that the combination of two weak but…
联立方程系统的半参数三步估计方法
Abstract This paper proposes a new method for estimating a structural model of labour supply in which hours of work depend on (log) wages and the wage rate is considered endogenous. The main innovation with respect to other related estimation procedures is that a nonparametric additive structure in the hours of work equation is permitted. Though the focus of the paper is on this particular application, a three‐step methodology for estimating models in the presence of the…
TSMod 4.03 使用导览
Abstract We review the time series econometrics package TSMod. The new features in TSMod 4.03, released in April 2004, are described and its potential for teaching is analysed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
土耳其银行业的低效率与异质性：1990—2000年
Abstract Recent studies have stressed the importance of privatization and openness to foreign competition for bank efficiency and economic growth. We study bank efficiency in Turkey, an emerging economy with great heterogeneity in bank types and ownership structures. Earlier studies of Turkish banking had three limitations: (i) excessive reliance on cost‐function frontier analyses, wherein volume of loans is a measure of banking output; (ii) pooling all banks or imposing ad…
主成分的应用：利用大型数据集分析货币政策
Abstract The empirical analysis of monetary policy requires the construction of instruments for future expected inflation. Dynamic factor models have been applied rather successfully to inflation forecasting. In fact, two competing methods have recently been developed to estimate large‐scale dynamic factor models based, respectively, on static and dynamic principal components. This paper combines the econometric literature on dynamic principal components and the empirical…
马尔可夫切换因果性与货币—产出关系
Abstract The causal link between monetary variables and output is one of the most studied issues in macroeconomics. One puzzle from this literature is that the results of causality tests appear to be sensitive with respect to the sample period that one considers. As a way of overcoming this difficulty, we propose a method for analysing Granger causality which is based on a vector autoregressive model with time‐varying parameters. We model parameter time‐variation so as to…
日本低利率政策下货币需求估计的总量与分项分析悖论
Abstract We use Japanese aggregate and disaggregate money demand data to show that conflicting inferences can arise. The aggregate data appears to support the contention that there was no stable money demand function. The disaggregate data shows that there was a stable money demand function. Neither was there any indication of the presence of a liquidity trap. Possible sources of discrepancy are explored and the diametrically opposite results between the aggregate and…
终身等价尺度的半参数估计
Abstract Pashardes ( 1991 ) and Banks et al. ( 1994 ) use parametric methods to estimate lifetime equivalence scales. Their approaches put parametric restrictions on the differences in within‐period expenditure needs across household types, the intertemporal allocation of expenditure, and the shapes of commodity demand equations. This paper puts parametric structure only on the differences in within‐period expenditure needs across household types. This implies structure on…
我没说，也不会说：SIPP中的动态回答误差
Abstract Using state administrative records matched to the 1984 Survey of Income and Program Participation , we examine intertemporal relationships in response errors. False negative errors in reporting food stamps are highly correlated across interviews for the same household. Hypotheses that the error process can be explained by learning behaviour are not supported. Bivariate probit of response error in two periods reveals that responses to covariates are stable over time…
利用分位数回归反事实分解工资分布变化
Abstract We propose a method to decompose the changes in the wage distribution over a period of time in several factors contributing to those changes. The method is based on the estimation of marginal wage distributions consistent with a conditional distribution estimated by quantile regression as well as with any hypothesized distribution for the covariates. Comparing the marginal distributions implied by different distributions for the covariates, one is then able to…
过街还是等待？行人过街决策的实证分析
Abstract We examine the behaviour of pedestrians wishing to cross a stream of traffic at signalized intersections. We model each pedestrian as making a discrete crossing choice by comparing the gaps between vehicles in traffic to an individual‐specific ‘critical gap’ that characterizes the individual's minimal acceptable gap. We propose both parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the distribution of critical gaps in the population of pedestrians. To estimate the…
航空网络管理中的离散选择建模
Abstract The task of airline network management is to develop new flight schedule variants and evaluate them in terms of expected passenger demand and revenue. Given the industry's trend towards global cooperation, this is especially important when evaluating the potential synergies with alliance partners. From the econometric point of view, this task represents a discrete choice modelling problem in which one has to account for a large number of dependent alternatives. In…