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欧元区的国际联系：全球 VAR 分析AI 解读

Abstract This paper presents a quarterly global model combining individual country vector error‐correcting models in which the domestic variables are related to the country‐specific foreign variables. The global VAR (GVAR) model is estimated for 26 countries, the euro area being treated as a single economy, over the period 1979–2003. It advances research in this area in a number of directions. In particular, it provides a theoretical framework where the GVAR is derived as an…

七国集团产出的非线性自回归领先指标模型AI 解读

Abstract This paper studies linear and nonlinear autoregressive leading indicator models of business cycles in G‐7 countries. Our models use the spread between short‐term and long‐term interest rates as leading indicators for GDP. We examine data admissibility by determining whether these models have the ability to produce time series with classical cycles that resemble the observed classical cycles in the data, and then we ask whether this data admissibility lends itself to…

协整自回归模型中的共同依赖周期AI 解读

Abstract This paper investigates codependent cycles, i.e., transitory components that react to common stimuli in a similar, although not necessarily synchronous fashion. Unlike previous studies, the methodology of this paper allows FIML estimation of the restricted VAR/VECM and therefore the extraction of the unobserved codependent cyclical components via a Beveridge‐Nelson decomposition. It is further shown that the number and order of cofeature combinations that yield the…

美联储预测的评价：跨预测期限的合并方法AI 解读

Abstract The Federal Reserve Greenbook forecasts of real GDP, inflation and unemployment are analysed for the period 1974–1997. We consider whether these forecasts exhibit systematic bias, and whether efficient use is made of information, that is, whether revisions to these forecasts over time are predictable. Rather than analyse the forecasts separately for each horizon of interest, we discuss and implement methods that pool information over horizons. We conclude that there…

短面板中的代际流动与样本选择AI 解读

Abstract Using data from the first 11 waves of the BHPS, this paper measures the extent of the selection bias induced by standard coresidence conditions—bias that is expected to be severe in short panels—on measures of intergenerational mobility in occupational prestige. We try to limit the impact of other selection biases, such as those induced by labour market restrictions that are typically imposed in intergenerational mobility studies, by using different measures of…

1930—2000年美国各州发明活动的动态演变AI 解读

Abstract We study the dynamics of the cross‐section distribution of patents per capita for the 48 continental US states from 1930 to 2000 using a discrete‐state Markov chain. We test for and find evidence in favor of the (knowledge) convergence hypothesis. The distribution of patents is converging to a limiting distribution that is significantly more concentrated than its initial distribution. States in the extreme are more mobile than states in the middle of the…

库存与销售多项式协整下线性二次模型的重新解释AI 解读

Abstract Estimation of the linear quadratic model, the workhorse of the inventory literature, traditionally takes inventories and sales to be first‐difference stationary series, and the ratio of the two variables to be stationary. However, these assumptions do not always match the properties of the data for the last two decades in the United States. We propose a model that allows for the non‐stationary characteristics of the data, using polynomial cointegration. We show that…

长预测期多变量脉冲响应函数的小样本置信区间AI 解读

Abstract Existing methods for constructing confidence bands for multivariate impulse response functions may have poor coverage at long lead times when variables are highly persistent. The goal of this paper is to propose a simple method that is not pointwise and that is robust to the presence of highly persistent processes. We use approximations based on local‐to‐unity asymptotic theory, and allow the horizon to be a fixed fraction of the sample size. We show that our method…

风险与收益是否存在权衡？来自高频数据的证据AI 解读

Abstract This paper examines the intertemporal relation between risk and return for the aggregate stock market using high‐frequency data. We use daily realized, GARCH, implied, and range‐based volatility estimators to determine the existence and significance of a risk–return trade‐off for several stock market indices. We find a positive and statistically significant relation between the conditional mean and conditional volatility of market returns at the daily level. This…

多单位序贯时钟拍卖的实证模型AI 解读

Abstract We construct a model of participation and bidding at multi‐unit, sequential, clock auctions when bidders have multi‐unit demand. We describe conditions sufficient to characterize a symmetric, perfect‐Bayesian equilibrium and then demonstrate that this equilibrium induces an efficient allocation. We propose an algorithm, based on the generalized Vickrey auction, to calculate the expected winning bid for each unit sold. This algorithm allows us to construct a…

学校绩效指标界限的识别与估计：带验证信息混合模型的非参数分析AI 解读

Abstract This paper identifies and nonparametrically estimates sharp bounds on school performance measures based on test scores that may not be valid for all students. A mixture model with verification is developed to handle this problem. This is a mixture model for data that can be partitioned into two sets, one of which (the so‐called verified set) is more likely to be from the distribution of interest than the other. An administrative classification of each student as…

利用密度预测面板建模多期通胀不确定性AI 解读

Abstract This paper examines the determinants of inflation forecast uncertainty using a panel of density forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). Based on a dynamic heterogeneous panel data model, we find that the persistence in forecast uncertainty is much less than what the aggregate time series data would suggest. In addition, the strong link between past forecast errors and current forecast uncertainty, as often noted in the ARCH literature, is…

母职的工资成本：匹配估计分析AI 解读

Abstract We estimate the effect of motherhood on wages using matching. We distinguish between net and direct effects. The net effect includes the total wage costs, whereas the direct represents the causal effect. Since covariates are likely affected by motherhood, the latter effect is not immediately uncovered. We therefore implement two strategies: first, we confine the analysis to consider sector‐specific treatment effects; second, we impose additive separability on the…

使用 GRETL 教授本科计量经济学AI 解读

Abstract This paper reviews GRETL, a software package for econometrics. Mainly it discusses GRETL's merits as an aid in teaching undergraduate econometrics. This discussion is in two parts. First one author, an instructor, reviews the teaching of undergraduate econometrics with GRETL. Then the second author, a student, discusses the experience of being introduced to GRETL as part of the introductory course and of putting it to work as part of his employment. The paper…

含内生性的两部模型贝叶斯分析：医疗支出应用AI 解读

Abstract This paper studies the effect of managed care on medical expenditure using a model in which the insurance status is assumed to be endogenous. Insurance plan choice is modeled through the multinomial probit model. The medical expenditure variable, the outcome of interest, has a significant proportion of zeros that are handled using the two‐part model, extended to handle endogenous insurance. The estimation approach is Bayesian, based on the Gibbs Sampler. The model…

南非家庭特征与生活水平：考虑样本流失的分位数回归分析AI 解读

Abstract This paper examines whether the dismantling of apartheid has resulted in an improvement in the standard of living for the vast majority of South Africans. The study is based on a panel data set from the Kwazulu‐Natal province. We use weighted quantile regressions to examine the distribution of standards of living, which corrects for the potential bias arising from non‐random sample attrition. Our results show that there has been a significant increase in the spread…

预测者多快吸收新信息？跨国调查证据AI 解读

Abstract Using forecasts from Consensus Economics Inc., we provide evidence on the efficiency of real GDP growth forecasts by testing whether forecast revisions are uncorrelated. As the forecast data used are multi‐dimensional—18 countries, 24 monthly forecasts for the current and the following year and 16 target years—the panel estimation takes into account the complex structure of the variance–covariance matrix due to propagation of shocks across countries and economic…

基于消费的等价尺度半参数估计：德国案例AI 解读

Abstract Consumption‐based equivalence scales are estimated by applying the extended partially linear model (EPLM) to the 1998 German Income and Consumption Survey (EVS). In this model the equivalence scales are identified from nonlinearities in household demand. The econometric framework should not therefore impose strong restrictions on the functional forms of household expenditure shares. The chosen semi‐parametric specification meets this requirement. It is flexible, it…

竞标者不对称下国债拍卖机制的估计与比较AI 解读

Abstract The structural parameters of a share‐auction model accounting for asymmetries across bidders, as well as supply uncertainty, are estimated with a sample of French Treasury auctions. We find evidence of both informational and risk aversion asymmetries across bidders. A counter‐factual analysis also suggests that, in the context of the French Treasury auctions, a shift from the discriminatory to the uniform‐price format would simultaneously benefit the French Treasury…

测量误差对生产函数估计的影响评估AI 解读

Abstract This article explores to what extent the poor results that are often found when estimating parameters of production functions can be attributed to measurement errors, due to the use of common price deflators across firms. Because of the lack of detailed micro‐economic data, econometricians have to rely on industry‐wide deflators when computing outputs and intermediate inputs. A unique feature of the longitudinal data used in this paper is that it reports firm‐level…

财富动态：减少面板数据中的噪声AI 解读

Abstract Although the asset data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) is of very high quality, there is sufficient noise to frustrate attempts to study saving behaviour by examining wave‐to‐wave change in wealth. In this research, we attempt to reduce noise by means of reactive‐dependent interviewing in which respondents with large inexplicable changes in assets between 1998 and 2000 are called back by HRS interviewers, presented with their prior reports and asked to…

就《反对使用 JIVE 的论证》答复 Ackerberg、Devereux、Blomquist 与 DahlbergAI 解读

The JAE Data Archive directory is available at http://qed.econ.queensu.ca/jae/datasets/ . Please note: The publisher is not responsible for the content or functionality of any supporting information supplied by the authors. Any queries (other than missing content) should be directed to the corresponding author for the article.

反对使用 JIVE 的论证AI 解读

Abstract We perform an extensive series of Monte Carlo experiments to compare the performance of two variants of the ‘jackknife instrumental variables estimator’, or JIVE, with that of the more familiar 2SLS and LIML estimators. We find no evidence to suggest that JIVE should ever be used. It is always more dispersed than 2SLS, often very much so, and it is almost always inferior to LIML in all respects. Interestingly, JIVE seems to perform particularly badly when the…

《反对使用 JIVE 的论证》：评论AI 解读

The JAE Data Archive directory is available at http://qed.econ.queensu.ca/jae/datasets/ . Please note: The publisher is not responsible for the content or functionality of any supporting information supplied by the authors. Any queries (other than missing content) should be directed to the corresponding author for the article.