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局部似然估计的空间聚合及分类应用AI 解读

This paper presents a new method for spatially adaptive local (constant) likelihood estimation which applies to a broad class of nonparametric models, including the Gaussian, Poisson and binary response models. The main idea of the method is, given a sequence of local likelihood estimates (“weak” estimates), to construct a new aggregated estimate whose pointwise risk is of order of the smallest risk among all “weak” estimates. We also propose a new approach toward selecting…

简单假设的渐近最优多阶段检验AI 解读

A family of variable stage size multistage tests of simple hypotheses is described, based on efficient multistage sampling procedures. Using a loss function that is a linear combination of sampling costs and error probabilities, these tests are shown to minimize the integrated risk to second order as the costs per stage and per observation approach zero. A numerical study shows significant improvement over group sequential tests in a binomial testing problem.

正态均值问题中贝叶斯检验与估计结合方法的最优性AI 解读

We consider a problem of recovering a high-dimensional vector μ observed in white noise, where the unknown vector μ is assumed to be sparse. The objective of the paper is to develop a Bayesian formalism which gives rise to a family of l0-type penalties. The penalties are associated with various choices of the prior distributions πn(⋅) on the number of nonzero entries of μ and, hence, are easy to interpret. The resulting Bayesian estimators lead to a general thresholding rule…

迭代估计方程：线性收敛与渐近性质AI 解读

We propose an iterative estimating equations procedure for analysis of longitudinal data. We show that, under very mild conditions, the probability that the procedure converges at an exponential rate tends to one as the sample size increases to infinity. Furthermore, we show that the limiting estimator is consistent and asymptotically efficient, as expected. The method applies to semiparametric regression models with unspecified covariances among the observations. In the…

含协变量面板计数数据的两种基于似然的半参数估计方法AI 解读

We consider estimation in a particular semiparametric regression model for the mean of a counting process with “panel count” data. The basic model assumption is that the conditional mean function of the counting process is of the form E{ℕ(t)|Z}=exp(β0TZ)Λ0(t) where Z is a vector of covariates and Λ0 is the baseline mean function. The “panel count” observation scheme involves observation of the counting process ℕ for an individual at a random number K of random time points;…

测量误差回归中的替代变量降维：不变性规律AI 解读

We consider a general nonlinear regression problem where the predictors contain measurement error. It has been recently discovered that several well-known dimension reduction methods, such as OLS, SIR and pHd, can be performed on the surrogate regression problem to produce consistent estimates for the original regression problem involving the unobserved true predictor. In this paper we establish a general invariance law between the surrogate and the original dimension…

具有函数型输出的计算机模型验证AI 解读

A key question in evaluation of computer models is Does the computer model adequately represent reality? A six-step process for computer model validation is set out in Bayarri et al. [Technometrics 49 (2007) 138–154] (and briefly summarized below), based on comparison of computer model runs with field data of the process being modeled. The methodology is particularly suited to treating the major issues associated with the validation process: quantifying multiple sources of…

Consider a Gaussian nonparametric regression problem having both an unknown mean function and unknown variance function. This article presents a class of difference-based kernel estimators for the variance function. Optimal convergence rates that are uniform over broad functional classes and bandwidths are fully characterized, and asymptotic normality is also established. We also show that for suitable asymptotic formulations our estimators achieve the minimax rate.

强依赖下近不稳定过程最小二乘估计量的渐近理论AI 解读

This paper considers the effect of least squares procedures for nearly unstable linear time series with strongly dependent innovations. Under a general framework and appropriate scaling, it is shown that ordinary least squares procedures converge to functionals of fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes. We use fractional integrated noise as an example to illustrate the important ideas. In this case, the functionals bear only formal analogy to those in the classical…

间接观测下的拟合优度检验与二次泛函估计AI 解读

We consider the convolution model where i.i.d. random variables Xi having unknown density f are observed with additive i.i.d. noise, independent of the X’s. We assume that the density f belongs to either a Sobolev class or a class of supersmooth functions. The noise distribution is known and its characteristic function decays either polynomially or exponentially asymptotically. We consider the problem of goodness-of-fit testing in the convolution model. We prove upper bounds…

自旋玻璃中的估计：第一步AI 解读

The Sherrington–Kirkpatrick model of spin glasses, the Hopfield model of neural networks and the Ising spin glass are all models of binary data belonging to the one-parameter exponential family with quadratic sufficient statistic. Under bare minimal conditions, we establish the $\sqrt{N}$-consistency of the maximum pseudolikelihood estimate of the natural parameter in this family, even at critical temperatures. Since very little is known about the low and critical…

基于 φ 散度的拟合优度检验AI 解读

A unified family of goodness-of-fit tests based on φ-divergences is introduced and studied. The new family of test statistics Sn(s) includes both the supremum version of the Anderson–Darling statistic and the test statistic of Berk and Jones [Z. Wahrsch. Verw. Gebiete 47 (1979) 47–59] as special cases (s=2 and s=1, resp.). We also introduce integral versions of the new statistics. We show that the asymptotic null distribution theory of Berk and Jones [Z. Wahrsch. Verw.…

Lasso 的有效自由度AI 解读

We study the effective degrees of freedom of the lasso in the framework of Stein’s unbiased risk estimation (SURE). We show that the number of nonzero coefficients is an unbiased estimate for the degrees of freedom of the lasso—a conclusion that requires no special assumption on the predictors. In addition, the unbiased estimator is shown to be asymptotically consistent. With these results on hand, various model selection criteria—Cp, AIC and BIC—are available, which, along…

纵向与空间数据相关函数的非参数估计及结肠致癌实验应用AI 解读

In longitudinal and spatial studies, observations often demonstrate strong correlations that are stationary in time or distance lags, and the times or locations of these data being sampled may not be homogeneous. We propose a nonparametric estimator of the correlation function in such data, using kernel methods. We develop a pointwise asymptotic normal distribution for the proposed estimator, when the number of subjects is fixed and the number of vectors or functions within…

计算密集型速率估计、发散统计量与扫描方法AI 解读

A general rate estimation method is proposed that is based on studying the in-sample evolution of appropriately chosen diverging/converging statistics. The proposed rate estimators are based on simple least squares arguments, and are shown to be accurate in a very general setting without requiring the choice of a tuning parameter. The notion of scanning is introduced with the purpose of extracting useful subsamples of the data series; the proposed rate estimation method is…

依赖性与错误发现率：渐近分析AI 解读

Some effort has been undertaken over the last decade to provide conditions for the control of the false discovery rate by the linear step-up procedure (LSU) for testing $n$ hypotheses when test statistics are dependent. In this paper we investigate the expected error rate (EER) and the false discovery rate (FDR) in some extreme parameter configurations when $n$ tends to infinity for test statistics being exchangeable under null hypotheses. All results are derived in terms of…

FDR 控制的性能约束与一种局部解决方案AI 解读

The False Discovery Rate (FDR) paradigm aims to attain certain control on Type I errors with relatively high power for multiple hypothesis testing. The Benjamini–Hochberg (BH) procedure is a well-known FDR controlling procedure. Under a random effects model, we show that, in general, unlike the FDR, the positive FDR (pFDR) of the BH procedure cannot be controlled at an arbitrarily low level due to the limited evidence provided by the observations to separate false and true…

基于岭参数的反卷积方法AI 解读

Kernel methods for deconvolution have attractive features, and prevail in the literature. However, they have disadvantages, which include the fact that they are usually suitable only for cases where the error distribution is infinitely supported and its characteristic function does not ever vanish. Even in these settings, optimal convergence rates are achieved by kernel estimators only when the kernel is chosen to adapt to the unknown smoothness of the target distribution.…

Bayesian variable selection has gained much empirical success recently in a variety of applications when the number K of explanatory variables $(x_1,\ldots,x_K)$ is possibly much larger than the sample size $n$. For generalized linear models, if most of the $x_j$’s have very small effects on the response $y$, we show that it is possible to use Bayesian variable selection to reduce overfitting caused by the curse of dimensionality $K\gg n$. In this approach a suitable prior…

多重检验中广义错误率的控制AI 解读

Consider the problem of testing $s$ hypotheses simultaneously. The usual approach restricts attention to procedures that control the probability of even one false rejection, the familywise error rate (FWER). If $s$ is large, one might be willing to tolerate more than one false rejection, thereby increasing the ability of the procedure to correctly reject false null hypotheses. One possibility is to replace control of the FWER by control of the probability of $k$ or more…

未知方差非参数回归实验的渐近近似AI 解读

Asymptotic equivalence results for nonparametric regression experiments have always assumed that the variances of the observations are known. In practice, however the variance of each observation is generally considered to be an unknown nuisance parameter. We establish an asymptotic approximation to the nonparametric regression experiment when the value of the variance is an additional parameter to be estimated or tested. This asymptotically equivalent experiment has two…

Wicksell 问题的 Kiefer–Wolfowitz 比较定理AI 解读

We extend the isotonic analysis for Wicksell’s problem to estimate a regression function, which is motivated by the problem of estimating dark matter distribution in astronomy. The main result is a version of the Kiefer–Wolfowitz theorem comparing the empirical distribution to its least concave majorant, but with a convergence rate $n^{-1}\log n$ faster than $n^{-2/3}\log n$. The main result is useful in obtaining asymptotic distributions for estimators, such as isotonic and…

非平稳序列非参数变点估计量的最优收敛速率AI 解读

Let $( X_{i}) _{i=1,\ldots,n}$ be a possibly nonstationary sequence such that $\mathscr{L} (X_{i})=P_{n}$ if $i\leq n\theta $ and $\mathscr{L}(X_{i})=Q_{n}$ if $i \gt n\theta $, where $0 \lt \theta \lt 1$ is the location of the change-point to be estimated. We construct a class of estimators based on the empirical measures and a seminorm on the space of measures defined through a family of functions $\mathcal{F}$. We prove the consistency of the estimator and give rates of…

高斯回归中的聚合AI 解读

This paper studies statistical aggregation procedures in the regression setting. A motivating factor is the existence of many different methods of estimation, leading to possibly competing estimators. We consider here three different types of aggregation: model selection (MS) aggregation, convex (C) aggregation and linear (L) aggregation. The objective of (MS) is to select the optimal single estimator from the list; that of (C) is to select the optimal convex combination of…