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超大协方差矩阵稀疏贝叶斯因子模型的后验收缩AI 解读

Sparse Bayesian factor models are routinely implemented for parsimonious dependence modeling and dimensionality reduction in high-dimensional applications. We provide theoretical understanding of such Bayesian procedures in terms of posterior convergence rates in inferring high-dimensional covariance matrices where the dimension can be larger than the sample size. Under relevant sparsity assumptions on the true covariance matrix, we show that commonly-used point mass mixture…

存在无限变差跳跃时积分波动率的有效估计AI 解读

We propose new nonparametric estimators of the integrated volatility of an Itô semimartingale observed at discrete times on a fixed time interval with mesh of the observation grid shrinking to zero. The proposed estimators achieve the optimal rate and variance of estimating integrated volatility even in the presence of infinite variation jumps when the latter are stochastic integrals with respect to locally “stable” Lévy processes, that is, processes whose Lévy measure…

多变点问题的非参数最大似然方法AI 解读

In multiple change-point problems, different data segments often follow different distributions, for which the changes may occur in the mean, scale or the entire distribution from one segment to another. Without the need to know the number of change-points in advance, we propose a nonparametric maximum likelihood approach to detecting multiple change-points. Our method does not impose any parametric assumption on the underlying distributions of the data sequence, which is…

正交表的广义分辨率AI 解读

The generalized word length pattern of an orthogonal array allows a ranking of orthogonal arrays in terms of the generalized minimum aberration criterion (Xu and Wu [Ann. Statist. 29 (2001) 1066–1077]). We provide a statistical interpretation for the number of shortest words of an orthogonal array in terms of sums of $R^{2}$ values (based on orthogonal coding) or sums of squared canonical correlations (based on arbitrary coding). Directly related to these results, we derive…

高维模型中的内生性AI 解读

Most papers on high-dimensional statistics are based on the assumption that none of the regressors are correlated with the regression error, namely, they are exogenous. Yet, endogeneity can arise incidentally from a large pool of regressors in a high-dimensional regression. This causes the inconsistency of the penalized least-squares method and possible false scientific discoveries. A necessary condition for model selection consistency of a general class of penalized…

随机实验中方差的锐界AI 解读

We propose a consistent estimator of sharp bounds on the variance of the difference-in-means estimator in completely randomized experiments. Generalizing Robins [Stat. Med. 7 (1988) 773–785], our results resolve a well-known identification problem in causal inference posed by Neyman [Statist. Sci. 5 (1990) 465–472. Reprint of the original 1923 paper]. A practical implication of our results is that the upper bound estimator facilitates the asymptotically narrowest…

稠密随机网络中的社群检测AI 解读

We formalize the problem of detecting a community in a network into testing whether in a given (random) graph there is a subgraph that is unusually dense. Specifically, we observe an undirected and unweighted graph on $N$ nodes. Under the null hypothesis, the graph is a realization of an Erdős–Rényi graph with probability $p_{0}$. Under the (composite) alternative, there is an unknown subgraph of $n$ nodes where the probability of connection is $p_{1}>p_{0}$. We derive a…

折叠凹惩罚估计的强 oracle 最优性AI 解读

Folded concave penalization methods have been shown to enjoy the strong oracle property for high-dimensional sparse estimation. However, a folded concave penalization problem usually has multiple local solutions and the oracle property is established only for one of the unknown local solutions. A challenging fundamental issue still remains that it is not clear whether the local optimum computed by a given optimization algorithm possesses those nice theoretical properties. To…

采用收缩与扩散先验的贝叶斯变量选择AI 解读

We consider a Bayesian approach to variable selection in the presence of high dimensional covariates based on a hierarchical model that places prior distributions on the regression coefficients as well as on the model space. We adopt the well-known spike and slab Gaussian priors with a distinct feature, that is, the prior variances depend on the sample size through which appropriate shrinkage can be achieved. We show the strong selection consistency of the proposed method in…

一种半参数空间动态模型AI 解读

Stimulated by the Boston house price data, in this paper, we propose a semiparametric spatial dynamic model, which extends the ordinary spatial autoregressive models to accommodate the effects of some covariates associated with the house price. A profile likelihood based estimation procedure is proposed. The asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators are derived. We also investigate how to identify the parametric/nonparametric components in the proposed semiparametric…

Subspace clustering refers to the task of finding a multi-subspace representation that best fits a collection of points taken from a high-dimensional space. This paper introduces an algorithm inspired by sparse subspace clustering (SSC) [In IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition, CVPR (2009) 2790–2797] to cluster noisy data, and develops some novel theory demonstrating its correctness. In particular, the theory uses ideas from geometric functional…

自回归误差分布的预言效率估计与同时置信带AI 解读

We propose kernel estimator for the distribution function of unobserved errors in autoregressive time series, based on residuals computed by estimating the autoregressive coefficients with the Yule–Walker method. Under mild assumptions, we establish oracle efficiency of the proposed estimator, that is, it is asymptotically as efficient as the kernel estimator of the distribution function based on the unobserved error sequence itself. Applying the result of Wang, Cheng and…

模型误设下 Grenander 估计量线性泛函的收敛AI 解读

Under the assumption that the true density is decreasing, it is well known that the Grenander estimator converges at rate $n^{1/3}$ if the true density is curved [Sankhyā Ser. A 31 (1969) 23–36] and at rate $n^{1/2}$ if the density is flat [Ann. Probab. 11 (1983) 328–345; Canad. J. Statist. 27 (1999) 557–566]. In the case that the true density is misspecified, the results of Patilea [Ann. Statist. 29 (2001) 94–123] tell us that the global convergence rate is of order $n^{1/3}$…

协变量维数增长时相关数据的广义可加部分线性模型估计与选择AI 解读

We propose generalized additive partial linear models for complex data which allow one to capture nonlinear patterns of some covariates, in the presence of linear components. The proposed method improves estimation efficiency and increases statistical power for correlated data through incorporating the correlation information. A unique feature of the proposed method is its capability of handling model selection in cases where it is difficult to specify the likelihood…

纵向数据的逆回归AI 解读

Sliced inverse regression (Duan and Li [Ann. Statist. 19 (1991) 505–530], Li [J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 86 (1991) 316–342]) is an appealing dimension reduction method for regression models with multivariate covariates. It has been extended by Ferré and Yao [Statistics 37 (2003) 475–488, Statist. Sinica 15 (2005) 665–683] and Hsing and Ren [Ann. Statist. 37 (2009) 726–755] to functional covariates where the whole trajectories of random functional covariates are completely…

非参数回归中基于平方根 Lasso 的枢轴估计AI 解读

We propose a self-tuning $\sqrt{\mathrm {Lasso}} $ method that simultaneously resolves three important practical problems in high-dimensional regression analysis, namely it handles the unknown scale, heteroscedasticity and (drastic) non-Gaussianity of the noise. In addition, our analysis allows for badly behaved designs, for example, perfectly collinear regressors, and generates sharp bounds even in extreme cases, such as the infinite variance case and the noiseless case, in…

对《lasso 的显著性检验》讨论的回复AI 解读

We would like to thank the Editors and referees for their considerable efforts that improved our paper, and all of the discussants for their feedback, and their thoughtful and stimulating comments.Linear models are central in applied statistics, and inference for adaptive linear modeling is an important active area of research.Our paper is clearly not the last word on the subject.Several of the discussants introduce novel proposals for this problem; in fact, many of the…

Gemini：基于矩阵正态观测的图结构估计AI 解读

Undirected graphs can be used to describe matrix variate distributions. In this paper, we develop new methods for estimating the graphical structures and underlying parameters, namely, the row and column covariance and inverse covariance matrices from the matrix variate data. Under sparsity conditions, we show that one is able to recover the graphs and covariance matrices with a single random matrix from the matrix variate normal distribution. Our method extends, with…

讨论：《Lasso 的显著性检验》AI 解读

The paper by Lockhart, Taylor, Tibshirani and Tibshirani (LTTT) is an important advancement in our understanding of inference for high-dimensional regression.The paper is a tour de force, bringing together an impressive array of results, culminating in a set of very satisfying convergence results.The fact that the test statistic automatically balances the effect of shrinkage and the effect of adaptive variable selection is remarkable.The authors make very strong…

lasso的显著性检验AI 解读

In the sparse linear regression setting, we consider testing the significance of the predictor variable that enters the current lasso model, in the sequence of models visited along the lasso solution path. We propose a simple test statistic based on lasso fitted values, called the covariance test statistic, and show that when the true model is linear, this statistic has an $\operatorname{Exp}(1)$ asymptotic distribution under the null hypothesis (the null being that all…

针对目标统计泛函的有效降维AI 解读

We introduce a new sufficient dimension reduction framework that targets a statistical functional of interest, and propose an efficient estimator for the semiparametric estimation problems of this type. The statistical functional covers a wide range of applications, such as conditional mean, conditional variance and conditional quantile. We derive the general forms of the efficient score and efficient information as well as their specific forms for three important…

利用多带宽 Gaussian 过程估计各向异性函数AI 解读

In nonparametric regression problems involving multiple predictors, there is typically interest in estimating an anisotropic multivariate regression surface in the important predictors while discarding the unimportant ones. Our focus is on defining a Bayesian procedure that leads to the minimax optimal rate of posterior contraction (up to a log factor) adapting to the unknown dimension and anisotropic smoothness of the true surface. We propose such an approach based on a…

通过趋势滤波进行自适应分段多项式估计AI 解读

We study trend filtering, a recently proposed tool of Kim et al. [SIAM Rev. 51 (2009) 339–360] for nonparametric regression. The trend filtering estimate is defined as the minimizer of a penalized least squares criterion, in which the penalty term sums the absolute $k$th order discrete derivatives over the input points. Perhaps not surprisingly, trend filtering estimates appear to have the structure of $k$th degree spline functions, with adaptively chosen knot points (we say…

庞加莱锥性质及其统计应用AI 解读

A domain $S\subset\mathbb{R}^{d}$ is said to fulfill the Poincaré cone property if any point in the boundary of $S$ is the vertex of a (finite) cone which does not otherwise intersects the closure $\bar{S}$. For more than a century, this condition has played a relevant role in the theory of partial differential equations, as a shape assumption aimed to ensure the existence of a solution for the classical Dirichlet problem on $S$. In a completely different setting, this paper…