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部分线性结构方程模型中的因果推断AI 解读

We consider identifiability of partially linear additive structural equation models with Gaussian noise (PLSEMs) and estimation of distributionally equivalent models to a given PLSEM. Thereby, we also include robustness results for errors in the neighborhood of Gaussian distributions. Existing identifiability results in the framework of additive SEMs with Gaussian noise are limited to linear and nonlinear SEMs, which can be considered as special cases of PLSEMs with…

重尾元素随机矩阵均值的次高斯估计AI 解读

Estimation of the covariance matrix has attracted a lot of attention of the statistical research community over the years, partially due to important applications such as principal component analysis. However, frequently used empirical covariance estimator, and its modifications, is very sensitive to the presence of outliers in the data. As P. Huber wrote [Ann. Math. Stat. 35 (1964) 73–101], “…This raises a question which could have been asked already by Gauss, but which…

Pickands 依赖函数的局部稳健估计AI 解读

We consider the robust estimation of the Pickands dependence function in the random covariate framework. Our estimator is based on local estimation with the minimum density power divergence criterion. We provide the main asymptotic properties, in particular the convergence of the stochastic process, correctly normalized, towards a tight centered Gaussian process. The finite sample performance of our estimator is evaluated with a simulation study involving both uncontaminated…

区间分位数依赖的度量与检验AI 解读

In this article, we introduce the notion of interval quantile independence which generalizes the notions of statistical independence and quantile independence. We suggest an index to measure and test departure from interval quantile independence. The proposed index is invariant to monotone transformations, nonnegative and equals zero if and only if the interval quantile independence holds true. We suggest a moment estimate to implement the test. The resultant estimator is…

多阈值加速失效时间模型AI 解读

A two-stage procedure for simultaneously detecting multiple thresholds and achieving model selection in the segmented accelerated failure time (AFT) model is developed in this paper. In the first stage, we formulate the threshold problem as a group model selection problem so that a concave 2-norm group selection method can be applied. In the second stage, the thresholds are finalized via a refining method. We establish the strong consistency of the threshold estimates and…

寻找高斯随机矩阵中的高均值子矩阵AI 解读

We consider the problem of finding a $k\times k$ submatrix of an $n\times n$ matrix with i.i.d. standard Gaussian entries, which has a large average entry. It was shown in [Bhamidi, Dey and Nobel (2012)] using nonconstructive methods that the largest average value of a $k\times k$ submatrix is $2(1+o(1))\sqrt{\log n/k}$, with high probability (w.h.p.), when $k=O(\log n/\log\log n)$. In the same paper, evidence was provided that a natural greedy algorithm called the Largest…

稳健的高斯随机过程仿真代理建模AI 解读

We consider estimation of the parameters of a Gaussian Stochastic Process (GaSP), in the context of emulation (approximation) of computer models for which the outcomes are real-valued scalars. The main focus is on estimation of the GaSP parameters through various generalized maximum likelihood methods, mostly involving finding posterior modes; this is because full Bayesian analysis in computer model emulation is typically prohibitively expensive. The posterior modes that are…

重访两样本 Kolmogorov–Smirnov 型检验：局部显著性水平视角AI 解读

From a multiple testing viewpoint, Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS)-type tests are union-intersection tests which can be redefined in terms of local levels. The local level perspective offers a new viewpoint on ranges of sensitivity of KS-type tests and the design of new tests. We study the finite and asymptotic local level behavior of weighted KS tests which are either tail, intermediate or central sensitive. Furthermore, we provide new tests with approximately equal local levels…

有限混合估计的强可识别性与最优极小极大速率AI 解读

We study the rates of estimation of finite mixing distributions, that is, the parameters of the mixture. We prove that under some regularity and strong identifiability conditions, around a given mixing distribution with $m_{0}$ components, the optimal local minimax rate of estimation of a mixing distribution with $m$ components is $n^{-1/(4(m-m_{0})+2)}$. This corrects a previous paper by Chen [Ann. Statist. 23 (1995) 221–233]. By contrast, it turns out that there are…

非凸损失下经验风险的几何结构AI 解读

Most high-dimensional estimation methods propose to minimize a cost function (empirical risk) that is a sum of losses associated to each data point (each example). In this paper, we focus on the case of nonconvex losses. Classical empirical process theory implies uniform convergence of the empirical (or sample) risk to the population risk. While under additional assumptions, uniform convergence implies consistency of the resulting M-estimator, it does not ensure that the…

Performing statistical inference in high-dimensional models is challenging because of the lack of precise information on the distribution of high-dimensional regularized estimators. Here, we consider linear regression in the high-dimensional regime $p>>n$ and the Lasso estimator: we would like to perform inference on the parameter vector $\theta^{*}\in\mathbb{R}^{p}$. Important progress has been achieved in computing confidence intervals and $p$-values for single coordinates…

支撑点：概率分布的代表点构造AI 解读

This paper introduces a new way to compact a continuous probability distribution $F$ into a set of representative points called support points. These points are obtained by minimizing the energy distance, a statistical potential measure initially proposed by Székely and Rizzo [InterStat 5 (2004) 1–6] for testing goodness-of-fit. The energy distance has two appealing features. First, its distance-based structure allows us to exploit the duality between powers of the Euclidean…

线性测量误差模型中误差分布的拟合优度检验AI 解读

This paper investigates a class of goodness-of-fit tests for fitting an error density in linear regression models with measurement error in covariates. Each test statistic is the integrated square difference between the deconvolution kernel density estimator of the regression model error density and a smoothed version of the null error density, an analog of the so-called Bickel and Rosenblatt test statistic. The asymptotic null distributions of the proposed test statistics…

高维模型的半参数效率界AI 解读

Asymptotic lower bounds for estimation play a fundamental role in assessing the quality of statistical procedures. In this paper, we propose a framework for obtaining semiparametric efficiency bounds for sparse high-dimensional models, where the dimension of the parameter is larger than the sample size. We adopt a semiparametric point of view: we concentrate on one-dimensional functions of a high-dimensional parameter. We follow two different approaches to reach the lower…

极值指数伪最大似然估计量的弱收敛AI 解读

The extremes of a stationary time series typically occur in clusters. A primary measure for this phenomenon is the extremal index, representing the reciprocal of the expected cluster size. Both disjoint and sliding blocks estimator for the extremal index are analyzed in detail. In contrast to many competitors, the estimators only depend on the choice of one parameter sequence. We derive an asymptotic expansion, prove asymptotic normality and show consistency of an estimator…

The log-concave maximum likelihood estimator of a density on the real line based on a sample of size $n$ is known to attain the minimax optimal rate of convergence of $O(n^{-4/5})$ with respect to, for example, squared Hellinger distance. In this paper, we show that it also enjoys attractive adaptation properties, in the sense that it achieves a faster rate of convergence when the logarithm of the true density is $k$-affine (i.e., made up of $k$ affine pieces), or close to $k$…

含测量误差的加性模型的平滑回拟合AI 解读

In this work, we develop a new smooth backfitting method and theory for estimating additive nonparametric regression models when the covariates are contaminated by measurement errors. For this, we devise a new kernel function that suitably deconvolutes the bias due to measurement errors as well as renders a projection interpretation to the resulting estimator in the space of additive functions. The deconvolution property and the projection interpretation are essential for a…

高维非平稳时间序列最大特征值的中心极限定理与单位根检验AI 解读

Let $\{Z_{ij}\}$ be independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables with $EZ_{ij}=0$, $E\vert Z_{ij}\vert^{2}=1$ and $E\vert Z_{ij}\vert^{4}<\infty$. Define linear processes $Y_{tj}=\sum_{k=0}^{\infty}b_{k}Z_{t-k,j}$ with $\sum_{i=0}^{\infty}\vert b_{i}\vert <\infty$. Consider a $p$-dimensional time series model of the form $\mathbf{x}_{t}=\boldsymbol{\Pi} \mathbf{x}_{t-1}+\Sigma^{1/2}\mathbf{y}_{t},\ 1\leq t\leq T$ with $\mathbf{y}_{t}=(Y_{t1},\ldots,Y_{tp})'$…

多样本有偏抽样模型下的单调密度估计AI 解读

We study the nonparametric estimation of a decreasing density function $g_{0}$ in a general $s$-sample biased sampling model with weight (or bias) functions $w_{i}$ for $i=1,\ldots,s$. The determination of the monotone maximum likelihood estimator $\hat{g}_{n}$ and its asymptotic distribution, except for the case when $s=1$, has been long missing in the literature due to certain nonstandard structures of the likelihood function, such as nonseparability and a lack of strictly…

二阶平稳向量时间序列的主成分分析AI 解读

We extend the principal component analysis (PCA) to second-order stationary vector time series in the sense that we seek for a contemporaneous linear transformation for a $p$-variate time series such that the transformed series is segmented into several lower-dimensional subseries, and those subseries are uncorrelated with each other both contemporaneously and serially. Therefore, those lower-dimensional series can be analyzed separately as far as the linear dynamic…

Ising 模型下针对稀疏备择的全局检验AI 解读

In this paper, we study the effect of dependence on detecting sparse signals. In particular, we focus on global testing against sparse alternatives for the means of binary outcomes following an Ising model, and establish how the interplay between the strength and sparsity of a signal determines its detectability under various notions of dependence. The profound impact of dependence is best illustrated under the Curie–Weiss model where we observe the effect of a…

高频观测下分数高斯噪声的局部渐近正态性AI 解读

Local Asymptotic Normality (LAN) property for fractional Gaussian noise under high-frequency observations is proved with nondiagonal rate matrices depending on the parameter to be estimated. In contrast to the LAN families in the literature, nondiagonal rate matrices are inevitable. As consequences of the LAN property, a maximum likelihood sequence of estimators is shown to be asymptotically efficient and the likelihood ratio test on the Hurst parameter is shown to be an…

大量类别多项数据的变点检测AI 解读

We consider a sequence of multinomial data for which the probabilities associated with the categories are subject to abrupt changes of unknown magnitudes at unknown locations. When the number of categories is comparable to or even larger than the number of subjects allocated to these categories, conventional methods such as the classical Pearson’s chi-squared test and the deviance test may not work well. Motivated by high-dimensional homogeneity tests, we propose a novel…

反向嵌套描述子的渐近理论及干细胞分化推断AI 解读

For sequences of random backward nested subspaces as occur, say, in dimension reduction for manifold or stratified space valued data, asymptotic results are derived. In fact, we formulate our results more generally for backward nested families of descriptors (BNFD). Under rather general conditions, asymptotic strong consistency holds. Under additional, still rather general hypotheses, among them existence of a.s. local twice differentiable charts, asymptotic joint normality…