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外资所有权的动态与非中性生产率效应：非参数方法AI 解读

Summary This paper studies two novel productivity characteristics of foreign acquisition on high‐tech manufacturing firms: the dynamic and the non‐Hicks‐neutral effects. A dynamic productivity effect of foreign ownership arises when adoption of foreign technology and management practices takes time to fully realize. Furthermore, these dynamic adjustments may be capital or labor augmenting as adoption of advanced production technologies tends to have non‐neutral productivity…

结构VAR与金融网络：空间建模的最小距离方法AI 解读

Summary In this paper, I interpret a time series spatial model (T‐SAR) as a constrained structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. Based on these restrictions, I propose a minimum distance approach to estimate the (row‐standardized) network matrix and the overall network influence parameter of the T‐SAR from the SVAR estimates. I also develop a Wald‐type test to assess the distance between these two models. To implement the methodology, I discuss machine learning methods…

结构估计的对抗式方法AI 解读

We propose a new simulation‐based estimation method, adversarial estimation, for structural models. The estimator is formulated as the solution to a minimax problem between a generator (which generates simulated observations using the structural model) and a discriminator (which classifies whether an observation is simulated). The discriminator maximizes the accuracy of its classification while the generator minimizes it. We show that, with a sufficiently rich discriminator,…

匹配排序的构成：来自丹麦数据的证据AI 解读

In this paper, we formulate and estimate a flexible model of job mobility and wages with two‐sided heterogeneity. The analysis extends the finite mixture approach of Bonhomme, Lamadon, and Manresa (2019) and Abowd, McKinney, and Schmutte (2019) to develop a new Classification Expectation‐Maximization algorithm that ensures both worker and firm latent‐type identification using wage and mobility variations in the data. Workers receive job offers in worker‐type segmented labor…

同根异叶：面板数据中的时间序列与横截面方法AI 解读

One dominant approach to evaluate the causal effect of a treatment is through panel data analysis, whereby the behaviors of multiple units are observed over time. The information across time and units motivates two general approaches: (i) horizontal regression (i.e., unconfoundedness), which exploits time series patterns, and (ii) vertical regression (e.g., synthetic controls), which exploits cross‐sectional patterns. Conventional wisdom often considers the two approaches to…

基于最近邻匹配的估计：从密度比到平均处理效应AI 解读

Nearest neighbor (NN) matching is widely used in observational studies for causal effects. Abadie and Imbens (2006) provided the first large‐sample analysis of NN matching. Their theory focuses on the case with the number of NNs, M fixed. We reveal something new out of their study and show that once allowing M to diverge with the sample size an intrinsic statistic in their analysis constitutes a consistent estimator of the density ratio with regard to covariates across the…

外生冲击的非随机暴露AI 解读

We develop a new approach to estimating the causal effects of treatments or instruments that combine multiple sources of variation according to a known formula. Examples include treatments capturing spillovers in social or transportation networks and simulated instruments for policy eligibility. We show how exogenous shocks to some—but not all—determinants of such variables can be leveraged while avoiding omitted variables bias. Our solution involves specifying…

短期主义的宏观影响AI 解读

R&D investment reduces current profits, so short‐term pressure to hit profit targets may distort R&D. In the data, firms just meeting Wall Street forecasts have lower R&D growth and subsequent innovation, while managers just missing receive lower pay. But short‐termist distortions might not quantitatively matter if aggregation or equilibrium dampen their impact. So I build and estimate a quantitative endogenous growth model in which short‐termism arises naturally as…

动态模型的筛模拟矩估计量AI 解读

This paper proposes a Sieve Simulated Method of Moments (Sieve‐SMM) estimator for the parameters and the distribution of the shocks in nonlinear dynamic models where the likelihood and the moments are not tractable. An important concern with SMM, which matches sample with simulated moments, is that a parametric distribution is required. However, economic quantities that depend on this distribution, such as welfare and asset prices, can be sensitive to misspecification. The…

分布型合成控制AI 解读

The method of synthetic controls is a fundamental tool for evaluating causal effects of policy changes in settings with observational data. In many settings where it is applicable, researchers want to identify causal effects of policy changes on a treated unit at an aggregate level while having access to data at a finer granularity. This article proposes an extension of the synthetic controls estimator that takes advantage of this additional structure and provides…

网络聚类稳健推断AI 解读

Since network data commonly consists of observations from a single large network, researchers often partition the network into clusters in order to apply cluster‐robust inference methods. Existing such methods require clusters to be asymptotically independent. Under mild conditions, we prove that, for this requirement to hold for network‐dependent data, it is necessary and sufficient that clusters have low conductance, the ratio of edge boundary size to volume. This yields a…

带约束的条件矩限制模型AI 解读

Shape restrictions have played a central role in economics as both testable implications of theory and sufficient conditions for obtaining informative counterfactual predictions. In this paper, we provide a general procedure for inference under shape restrictions in identified and partially identified models defined by conditional moment restrictions. Our test statistics and proposed inference methods are based on the minimum of the generalized method of moments (GMM)…

作为在线线性回归的合成控制AI 解读

This paper notes a simple connection between synthetic control and online learning. Specifically, we recognize synthetic control as an instance of Follow‐The‐Leader (FTL). Standard results in online convex optimization then imply that, even when outcomes are chosen by an adversary, synthetic control predictions of counterfactual outcomes for the treated unit perform almost as well as an oracle weighted average of control units' outcomes. Synthetic control on differenced data…

平行趋势何时对函数形式敏感？AI 解读

This paper assesses when the validity of difference‐in‐differences depends on functional form. We provide a novel characterization: the parallel trends assumption holds under all strictly monotonic transformations of the outcome if and only if a stronger “parallel trends”‐type condition holds for the cumulative distribution function of untreated potential outcomes. This condition for parallel trends to be insensitive to functional form is satisfied if and essentially only if…

连接权力：政治关联、创新与企业动态AI 解读

How do political connections affect firm dynamics, innovation, and creative destruction? We extend a Schumpeterian growth model with political connections that help firms ease bureaucratic and regulatory burden. The model highlights how political connections influence an economy's business dynamism and innovation, and generates a number of implications guiding our empirical analysis. We construct a new large‐scale data set for the period 1993–2014, on the universe of firms,…

已知系数大型线性系统的推断AI 解读

This paper considers the problem of testing whether there exists a non‐negative solution to a possibly under‐determined system of linear equations with known coefficients. This hypothesis testing problem arises naturally in a number of settings, including random coefficient, treatment effect, and discrete choice models, as well as a class of linear programming problems. As a first contribution, we obtain a novel geometric characterization of the null hypothesis in terms of…

图极限博弈：网络博弈与干预的统计框架AI 解读

In this paper, we present a unifying framework for analyzing equilibria and designing interventions for large network games sampled from a stochastic network formation process represented by a graphon. To this end, we introduce a new class of infinite population games, termed graphon games , in which a continuum of heterogeneous agents interact according to a graphon, and we show that equilibria of graphon games can be used to approximate equilibria of large network games…

反事实的敏感性与稳健性AI 解读

We propose a framework for analyzing the sensitivity of counterfactuals to parametric assumptions about the distribution of latent variables in structural models. In particular, we derive bounds on counterfactuals as the distribution of latent variables spans nonparametric neighborhoods of a given parametric specification while other “structural” features of the model are maintained. Our approach recasts the infinite‐dimensional problem of optimizing the counterfactual with…

加州医保交易市场需求的非参数估计AI 解读

We develop a new nonparametric approach for discrete choice and use it to analyze the demand for health insurance in the California Affordable Care Act marketplace. The model allows for endogenous prices and instrumental variables, while avoiding parametric functional form assumptions about the unobserved components of utility. We use the approach to estimate bounds on the effects of changing premiums or subsidies on coverage choices, consumer surplus, and government…

低频购买与小市场规模下的需求估计AI 解读

We propose a demand estimation method that allows for a large number of zero‐ sale observations, rich unobserved heterogeneity, and endogenous prices. We do so by modeling small market sizes through Poisson arrivals. Each of these arriving consumers solves a standard discrete choice problem. We present a Bayesian IV estimation approach that addresses sampling error in product shares and scales well to rich data environments. The data requirements are traditional market‐level…

三个及以上时期的固定效应二元选择模型AI 解读

We consider fixed‐effects binary choice models with a fixed number of periods T and regressors without a large support. If the time‐varying unobserved terms are i.i.d. with known distribution F , Chamberlain (2010) shows that the common slope parameter is point identified if and only if F is logistic. However, he only considers in his proof T = 2. We show that the result does not generalize to T ≥ 3: the common slope parameter can be identified when F belongs to a family…

份额拍卖中的风险厌恶：瑞士关税配额进口租金估计AI 解读

This paper analyzes risk aversion in discriminatory share auctions. I generalize the k ‐step share auction model of Kastl (2011, 2012) and establish that marginal profits are set‐identified for any given coefficient of constant absolute risk aversion. I also derive necessary conditions for best‐response behavior, which allows determining risk preferences from bidding data. Further, I show how the bidders' optimality conditions allow computing bounds on the marginal profits…

弱依赖高维动态面板中的异质性处理效应推断AI 解读

This paper provides estimation and inference methods for conditional average treatment effects (CATE) characterized by a high‐dimensional parameter in both homogeneous cross‐sectional and unit‐heterogeneous dynamic panel data settings. In our leading example, we model CATE by interacting the base treatment variable with explanatory variables. The first step of our procedure is orthogonalization, where we partial out the controls and unit effects from the outcome and the base…

市场份额存在零值时的差异化产品需求估计AI 解读

In this paper, we introduce a new approach to estimating differentiated product demand systems that allows for products with zero sales in the data. Zeroes in demand are a common problem in differentiated product markets, but fall outside the scope of existing demand estimation techniques. We show that with a lower bound imposed on the expected sales quantities, we can construct upper and lower bounds for the conditional expectation of the inverse demand. These bounds can be…