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天性还是后天环境？学习与女性劳动参与的地理分布AI 解读

One of the most dramatic economic transformations of the past century has been the entry of women into the labor force. While many theories explain why this change took place, we investigate the process of transition itself. We argue that local information transmission generates changes in participation that are geographically heterogeneous, locally correlated, and smooth in the aggregate, just like those observed in our data. In our model, women learn about the effects of…

二元因变量三角方程系统中的部分识别AI 解读

This paper studies the special case of the triangular system of equations in Vytlacil and Yildiz (2007), where both dependent variables are binary but without imposing the restrictive support condition required by Vytlacil and Yildiz (2007) for identification of the average structural function (ASF) and the average treatment effect (ATE). Under weak regularity conditions, we derive upper and lower bounds on the ASF and the ATE. We show further that the bounds on the ASF and…

应用非参数工具变量估计AI 解读

Instrumental variables are widely used in applied econometrics to achieve identification and carry out estimation and inference in models that contain endogenous explanatory variables. In most applications, the function of interest (e.g., an Engel curve or demand function) is assumed to be known up to finitely many parameters (e.g., a linear model), and instrumental variables are used identify and estimate these parameters. However, linear and other finite-dimensional…

具有半参数限制的缺失数据模型的效率界AI 解读

This paper shows that the semiparametric efficiency bound for a parameter identified by an unconditional moment restriction with data missing at random (MAR) coincides with that of a particular augmented moment condition problem. The augmented system consists of the inverse probability weighted (IPW) original moment restriction and an additional conditional moment restriction which exhausts all other implications of the MAR assumption. The paper also investigates the value…

预期收入对个人迁移决策的影响AI 解读

This paper develops a tractable econometric model of optimal migration, focusing on expected income as the main economic influence on migration. The model improves on previous work in two respects: it covers optimal sequences of location decisions (rather than a single once-for-all choice) and it allows for many alternative location choices. The model is estimated using panel data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth on white males with a high-school education. Our…

在早产儿围产期护理观察研究中构建更强工具变量AI 解读

An instrument is a random nudge toward acceptance of a treatment that affects outcomes only to the extent that it affects acceptance of the treatment. Nonetheless, in settings in which treatment assignment is mostly deliberate and not random, there may exist some essentially random nudges to accept treatment, so that use of an instrument might extract bits of random treatment assignment from a setting that is otherwise quite biased in its treatment assignments. An instrument…

不完整纵向二元数据的贝叶斯收缩模型AI 解读

We consider inference in randomized longitudinal studies with missing data that is generated by skipped clinic visits and loss to follow-up. In this setting, it is well known that full data estimands are not identified unless unverified assumptions are imposed. We assume a non-future dependence model for the drop-out mechanism and partial ignorability for the intermittent missingness. We posit an exponential tilt model that links non-identifiable distributions and…

企业撤回 IPO 决策的自选择：带反馈的破产风险模型贝叶斯推断AI 解读

Examination on firm performance subsequent to a chosen event is widely used in finance studies to analyze the motivation behind managerial decisions. However, results are often subject to bias when the self-selectivity behind managerial decisions is ignored and unspecified. This study investigates a unique corporate event of initial public offering (IPO) withdrawal, where a firm’s subsequent likelihood of bankruptcy is specified in a system of switching hazard models, and…

具有部分分位数变动效应的删失分位数回归AI 解读

Quantile regression offers a flexible approach to analyzing survival data, allowing each covariate effect to vary with quantiles. In practice, constancy is often found to be adequate for some covariates. In this paper, we study censored quantile regression tailored to the partially functional effect setting with a mixture of varying and constant effects. Such a model can offer a simpler view regarding covariate-survival association and, moreover, can enable improvement in…

利用逻辑斯蒂结构直接效应模型估计二元结局的受控直接效应AI 解读

We consider the problem of assessing whether an exposure affects a dichotomous outcome other than by modifying a given mediator. The standard approach, logistic regression adjusting for both exposure and the mediator, is known to be biased in the presence of confounders for the mediator-outcome relationship. Because additional regression adjustment for such confounders is only justified when they are not affected by the exposure, inverse probability weighting has been…

不交叉分位数回归曲线估计AI 解读

Since quantile regression curves are estimated individually, the quantile curves can cross, leading to an invalid distribution for the response. A simple constrained version of quantile regression is proposed to avoid the crossing problem for both linear and nonparametric quantile curves. A simulation study and a reanalysis of tropical cyclone intensity data shows the usefulness of the procedure. Asymptotic properties of the estimator are equivalent to the typical approach…

纵向数据的经验动态建模AI 解读

We demonstrate that the processes underlying on-line auction price bids and many other longitudinal data can be represented by an empirical first order stochastic ordinary differential equation with time-varying coefficients and a smooth drift process. This equation may be empirically obtained from longitudinal observations for a sample of subjects and does not presuppose specific knowledge of the underlying processes. For the nonparametric estimation of the components of…

处理效应的半参数界限AI 解读

We present a variety of semiparametric models that produce bounds on the average causal effect of a binary treatment on a binary outcome. The semiparametric assumptions exploit variation in observable covariates to narrow the bounds. In our main model, the outcome is determined by a generalized linear model, but the treatment may be arbitrarily endogenous. Our bounding strategy does not require the existence of an instrument, but incorporating an instrument narrows the…

分离偏好与误差：二元面板数据模型AI 解读

In many stated choice experiments researchers observe the random variables V t , X t , and Y t = 1{ U + δ ⊤ X t + ε t < V t }, t ≤ T , where δ is an unknown parameter and U and ε t are unobservable random variables. We show that under weak assumptions the distributions of U and ε t and also the unknown parameter δ can be consistently estimated using a sieved maximum likelihood estimation procedure.

不完全信息经验博弈的局部识别AI 解读

This paper studies identification for a broad class of empirical games in a general functional setting. Global identification results are known for some specific models, e.g., in some standard auction models. We use functional formulations to obtain general criteria for local identification. These criteria can be applied to both parametric and nonparametric models, and also to models with asymmetry among players and affiliated private information. A benchmark model is…

数据丰富环境中的工具变量估计AI 解读

We consider estimation of parameters in a regression model with endogenous regressors. The endogenous regressors along with a large number of other endogenous variables are driven by a small number of unobservable exogenous common factors. We show that the estimated common factors can be used as instrumental variables and they are more efficient than the observed variables in our framework. Whereas standard optimal generalized method of moments estimator using a large number…

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动态反馈对面板模型 LS 与 MM 估计精度的影响：补充结果AI 解读

In this paper, we show that the order of magnitude of the finite sample bias of the estimator of Bun and Kiviet (2006) reduces from O(T/N) to O(1/N) if the original level model is transformed by the upper triangular Cholesky factorization of the inverse of the pseudo variance matrix of error component ui wherein true values of the variances of individual effects and disturbances may not be used. Some variants of the system GMM estimator that are associated with the…

利用中心性的社会互动模型 GMM 估计AI 解读

This paper considers the specification and estimation of social interaction models with network structures and the presence of endogenous, contextual, correlated, and group fixed effects. When the network structure in a group is captured by a graph in which the degrees of nodes are not all equal, the different positions of group members as measured by the Bonacich (1987) centrality provide additional information for identification and estimation. In this case, the Bonacich…

拍卖模型中强正相依性的一致非参数检验AI 解读

We propose a new nonparametric test of affiliation, a strong form of positive dependence with independence as a special, knife-edge, case. The test is consistent against all departures from the null of affiliation, and its null distribution is standard normal. Like most nonparametric tests, a sample-size dependent input parameter is needed. We provide an informal procedure for choosing the input parameter and evaluate the test's performance using a simulation study. Our test…

美国专利的知识溢出：含隐秘共同创新因子的动态专利强度模型AI 解读

During the past two decades, innovations protected by patents have played a key role in business strategies. This fact enhanced studies of the determinants of patents and the impact of patents on innovation and competitive advantage. Sustaining competitive advantages is as important as creating them. Patents help sustaining competitive advantages by increasing the production cost of competitors, by signaling a better quality of products and by serving as barriers to entry.…

未观测异质性下离散持续期模型的设定与误设：蒙特卡洛研究AI 解读

Empirical researchers usually prefer statistical models that can be easily estimated with the help of commonly available software packages. Sequential binary models with or without normal random effects are an example of such models that can be adopted to estimate discrete duration models with unobserved heterogeneity. But an easy-to-implement estimation may incur a cost. In this paper we conduct a Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the consequences of omitting or…

面板数据的非高斯动态贝叶斯建模AI 解读

Abstract A first order autoregressive non‐Gaussian model for analysing panel data is proposed. The main feature is that the model is able to accommodate fat tails and also skewness, thus allowing for outliers and asymmetries. The modelling approach is designed to gain sufficient flexibility, without sacrificing interpretability and computational ease. The model incorporates individual effects and covariates and we pay specific attention to the elicitation of the prior. As…

动态离散选择模型中期望价值函数的连续性与可微性AI 解读

This paper explores the properties of expected value functions in dynamic discrete choice models. The continuity with respect to state variables and parameters, and the differentiability with respect to state variables are established under fairly general conditions. The differentiability with respect to parameters is proved when some state variables do not affect the state transition probabilities and, thus, the expected value functions. It is shown that such variables are…