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利用分位数估计福利效应的分布AI 解读

Summary This paper proposes a framework to model welfare effects that are associated with a price change in a population of heterogeneous consumers. The framework is similar to that of Hausman and Newey ( Econometrica , 1995, 63 , 1445–1476), but allows for more general forms of heterogeneity. Individual demands are characterized by a general model that is nonparametric in the regressors, as well as monotonic in unobserved heterogeneity, allowing us to identify the…

处理状态仅在一个时期可观测时的双重差分AI 解读

Summary This paper considers the difference‐in‐differences (DID) method when the data come from repeated cross‐sections and the treatment status is observed either before or after the implementation of a program. We propose a new method that point‐identifies the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) via a DID method when there is at least one proxy variable for the latent treatment. Key assumptions are the stationarity of the propensity score conditional on the proxy…

经济流动性转移矩阵的分解AI 解读

Summary We present a decomposition method for transition matrices to identify forces driving the persistence of economic status across generations. The method decomposes differences between an estimated transition matrix and a benchmark transition matrix into portions attributable to differences in characteristics between individuals from different households (a composition effect) and portions attributable to differing returns to these characteristics (a structure effect).…

随机效用模型的非参数分析AI 解读

This paper develops and implements a nonparametric test of random utility models. The motivating application is to test the null hypothesis that a sample of cross‐sectional demand distributions was generated by a population of rational consumers. We test a necessary and sufficient condition for this that does not restrict unobserved heterogeneity or the number of goods. We also propose and implement a control function approach to account for endogenous expenditure. An…

排序效应法：揭示平均值之外的异质效应AI 解读

The partial (ceteris paribus) effects of interest in nonlinear and interactive linear models are heterogeneous as they can vary dramatically with the underlying observed or unobserved covariates. Despite the apparent importance of heterogeneity, a common practice in modern empirical work is to largely ignore it by reporting average partial effects (or, at best, average effects for some groups). While average effects provide very convenient scalar summaries of typical…

多值处理效应的识别AI 解读

Multivalued treatment models have typically been studied under restrictive assumptions: ordered choice, and more recently, unordered monotonicity. We show how treatment effects can be identified in a more general class of models that allows for multidimensional unobserved heterogeneity. Our results rely on two main assumptions: treatment assignment must be a measurable function of threshold‐crossing rules, and enough continuous instruments must be available. We illustrate…

通过网络连接产生的长记忆AI 解读

Many time series exhibit “long memory”: Their autocorrelation function decays slowly with lag. This behavior has traditionally been modeled via unit roots or fractional Brownian motion and explained via aggregation of heterogeneous processes, nonlinearity, learning dynamics, regime switching, or structural breaks. This paper identifies a different and complementary mechanism for long‐memory generation by showing that it can naturally arise when a large number of simple…

利用工具变量推断政策相关处理参数AI 解读

We propose a method for using instrumental variables (IV) to draw inference about causal effects for individuals other than those affected by the instrument at hand. Policy relevance and external validity turn on the ability to do this reliably. Our method exploits the insight that both the IV estimand and many treatment parameters can be expressed as weighted averages of the same underlying marginal treatment effects. Since the weights are identified, knowledge of the IV…

利用单一税率变动估计供给与需求弹性AI 解读

We show how an insight from taxation theory allows identification of both the supply and demand elasticities using only one instrument. Most models of taxation since Ramsey (1927) assume that a tax levied on the demand side only affects demand through the price after taxation. Econometrically, we show that this assumption acts as an exclusion restriction. Under the Ramsey Exclusion Restriction (RER), a single tax reform can serve to simultaneously identify the demand and…

一类回归模型中的最优推断AI 解读

We consider the problem of constructing confidence intervals (CIs) for a linear functional of a regression function, such as its value at a point, the regression discontinuity parameter, or a regression coefficient in a linear or partly linear regression. Our main assumption is that the regression function is known to lie in a convex function class, which covers most smoothness and/or shape assumptions used in econometrics. We derive finite‐sample optimal CIs and sharp…

利用循环单调性估计半参数面板多项选择模型AI 解读

This paper proposes a new semi‐parametric identification and estimation approach to multinomial choice models in a panel data setting with individual fixed effects. Our approach is based on cyclic monotonicity, which is a defining convex‐analytic feature of the random utility framework underlying multinomial choice models. From the cyclic monotonicity property, we derive identifying inequalities without requiring any shape restrictions for the distribution of the random…

利用策略性报告分析需求：学校选择机制的应用AI 解读

Several school districts use assignment systems that give students an incentive to misrepresent their preferences. We find evidence consistent with strategic behavior in Cambridge. Such strategizing can complicate preference analysis. This paper develops empirical methods for studying random utility models in a new and large class of school choice mechanisms. We show that preferences are nonparametrically identified under either sufficient variation in choice environments or…

谁应接受处理？处理选择的经验福利最大化方法AI 解读

One of the main objectives of empirical analysis of experiments and quasi‐experiments is to inform policy decisions that determine the allocation of treatments to individuals with different observable covariates. We study the properties and implementation of the Empirical Welfare Maximization (EWM) method, which estimates a treatment assignment policy by maximizing the sample analog of average social welfare over a class of candidate treatment policies. The EWM approach is…

条件部分独立下的处理效应识别AI 解读

Conditional independence of treatment assignment from potential outcomes is a commonly used but nonrefutable assumption. We derive identified sets for various treatment effect parameters under nonparametric deviations from this conditional independence assumption. These deviations are defined via a conditional treatment assignment probability, which makes it straightforward to interpret. Our results can be used to assess the robustness of empirical conclusions obtained under…

无序单调性AI 解读

This paper defines and analyzes a new monotonicity condition for the identification of counterfactuals and treatment effects in unordered discrete choice models with multiple treatments, heterogeneous agents, and discrete‐valued instruments. Unordered monotonicity implies and is implied by additive separability of choice of treatment equations in terms of observed and unobserved variables. These results follow from properties of binary matrices developed in this paper. We…

度数有界网络中的偏好识别AI 解读

This paper provides a framework for identifying preferences in a large network where links are pairwise stable. Network formation models present difficulties for identification, especially when links can be interdependent, for example, when indirect connections matter. We show how one can use the observed proportions of various local network structures to learn about the underlying preference parameters. The key assumption for our approach restricts individuals to have…

处理变量误测且内生时的异质性处理效应AI 解读

This paper studies the identifying power of an instrumental variable in the nonparametric heterogeneous treatment effect framework when a binary treatment is mismeasured and endogenous. Using a binary instrumental variable, I characterize the sharp identified set for the local average treatment effect under the exclusion restriction of an instrument and the deterministic monotonicity of the true treatment in the instrument. Even allowing for general measurement error (e.g.,…

代际生命周期离散选择模型的估计AI 解读

This paper explores the estimation of a class of life‐cycle discrete choice dynastic models. It provides a new representation of the value function for these class of models. It compare a multistage conditional choice probability (CCP) estimator based on the new value function representation with a modified version of the full solution maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) in a Monte Carlo study. The modified CCP estimator performs comparably to the MLE in a finite sample but…

随机系数模型的设定检验AI 解读

In this paper, we suggest and analyze a new class of specification tests for random coefficient models. These tests allow to assess the validity of central structural features of the model, in particular linearity in coefficients, generalizations of this notion like a known nonlinear functional relationship, or degeneracy of the distribution of a random coefficient, that is, whether a coefficient is fixed or random, including whether an associated variable can be omitted…

动态离散选择模型中折扣因子与收益参数的联合分析AI 解读

Most empirical and theoretical econometric studies of dynamic discrete choice models assume the discount factor to be known. We show the knowledge of the discount factor is not necessary to identify parts, or even all, of the payoff function. We show the discount factor can be generically identified jointly with the payoff parameters. On the other hand, it is known the payoff function cannot be nonparametrically identified without any a priori restrictions. Our…

相互依赖的持续时间：一个新模型AI 解读

This paper introduces a bivariate version of the generalized accelerated failure time model. It allows for simultaneity in the econometric sense that the two realized outcomes depend structurally on each other. Another feature of the proposed model is that it will generate equal durations with positive probability. Our approach takes a stylized economic model that leads to a univariate generalized accelerated failure time model as a starting point. In this model, agents…

离散选择的实证福利分析：若干一般结果AI 解读

This paper develops nonparametric methods for welfare‐analysis of economic changes in the common setting of multinomial choice. The results cover (a) simultaneous price‐change of multiple alternatives, (b) introduction/elimination of an option, (c) changes in choice‐characteristics, and (d) choice among nonexclusive alternatives. In these cases, Marshallian consumer surplus becomes path‐dependent, but Hicksian welfare remains well‐defined. We demonstrate that under…

断点回归何时有效？来自随机选举结果的证据AI 解读

We use elections data in which a large number of ties in vote counts between candidates are resolved via a lottery to study the personal incumbency advantage. We benchmark non‐experimental regression discontinuity design (RDD) estimates against the estimate produced by this experiment that takes place exactly at the cutoff. The experimental estimate suggests that there is no personal incumbency advantage. In contrast, conventional local polynomial RDD estimates suggest a…

年龄—时期—队列问题与生命周期模型结构参数识别AI 解读

A standard approach to estimating structural parameters in life‐cycle models imposes sufficient assumptions on the data to identify the “age profile” of outcomes, then chooses model parameters so that the model's age profile matches this empirical age profile. I show that this approach is both incorrect and unnecessary: incorrect, because it generally produces inconsistent estimators of the structural parameters, and unnecessary, because consistent estimators can be obtained…