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具有动态异质溢出的矩阵值空间自回归AI 解读

We introduce a new time-varying parameter spatial matrix autoregressive model that integrates matrix-valued time series, heterogeneous spillover effects, outlier robustness, and time-varying parameters in one unified framework. The model allows for separate dynamic spatial spillover effects across both the row and column dimensions of the matrix-valued observations. Robustness can be introduced via a matrix Student’s t distribution. The model can still be estimated…

基于离散傅里叶变换检验交互固定效应面板模型的结构变化AI 解读

We propose a discrete Fourier transform (DFT)-based test for detecting structural changes in panel data models with interactive fixed effects (IFE). When structural changes are present but ignored, the conventional asymptotic distribution of the least squares (LS) estimator of Bai (2009) may no longer provide reliable inference, and the resulting residuals contain signals of parameter instability. Our test exploits this feature by comparing the DFT of weighted residuals to…

平均处理效应局部化：合成控制中的投影方法AI 解读

Many real-world policies and business interventions require assessing short-term effects to inform timely decisions, even though most causal inference methods focus on long-term average treatment effects. In this article, we introduce average treatment effect localization (ATEL), which captures localized, short-term policy impacts in panel data settings with a single treated unit and provides early indicators of policy impact. To accommodate both time-varying and nonlinear…

排序数据的静态与动态贝叶斯加性回归树模型AI 解读

Ranking lists are often provided at regular time intervals in a range of applications, including economics, sports, marketing, and politics. Most popular methods for rank-order data postulate a linear specification for the latent scores, which determine the observed ranks, and ignore the temporal dependence of the ranking lists. To address these issues, novel nonparametric static (ROBART) and autoregressive (ARROBART) models are developed, with latent scores defined as…

分解加成率的上升AI 解读

A recent literature argues that the rise in aggregate markups is due to economic activity reallocating toward high-markup firms rather than an increase in firmlevel markups. I show that standard decomposition methods used to analyze this phenomenon can estimate a non-zero reallocation effect even when the joint distribution of markups and market shares is time-invariant. This is due to churning in the firm-level distribution of markups and market shares. Empirically, I find…

有限状态马尔可夫链近似：一种隐马尔可夫方法AI 解读

This paper proposes a novel finite-state Markov chain approximation method for Markov processes with continuous support, providing both an optimal grid and a transition probability matrix. The method can be used for multivariate processes and processes with time-varying components. It is based on minimizing the information loss between a Hidden Markov Model and the true data-generating process. We provide sufficient conditions under which this information loss can be made…

条件可分离效应的近端因果推断AI 解读

Abstract Scientists regularly pose questions about treatment effects on outcomes conditional on a posttreatment event. However, causal inference in such settings requires care, even in perfectly executed randomized experiments. Recently, the conditional separable effect (CSE) was proposed as an interventionist estimand that corresponds to scientifically meaningful questions in these settings. However, existing results for the CSE require no unmeasured confounding between the…

翻转干预下的纵向加权与修剪处理效应AI 解读

Weighting and trimming are popular methods for addressing positivity violations in causal inference. While well-studied with single-timepoint data, standard methods do not easily generalize to longitudinal data and remain vulnerable to time-varying positivity violations. We extend weighting and trimming to longitudinal settings via stochastic “flip” interventions, which maintain the treatment status of subjects who would have received the target treatment, and flip others’…

部分时期回归量完全缺失的非参数时变面板模型识别与估计AI 解读

This article considers a nonparametric time-varying panel data model in which the primary regressor of interest is completely missing in some periods. Under standard assumptions, identification results are established for the unknown functions and the distributions of the missing regressor. Specifically, one period of completely observed data suffices to identify the random effects model, whereas two periods are required for the fixed effects model. Following identification,…

含时变协变量的直接与间接处理效应AI 解读

ABSTRACT We propose a simple approach to treatment effect estimation in panel data that is valid when the number of time periods is small and the parallel trends condition is violated due to the presence of interactive fixed effects. The procedure allows the covariates to be affected by treatment and enables separation of the part of the estimated treatment effect that is due to the covariates from the part that is not. The asymptotic properties of the new approach are…

时变面板数据模型中的潜在子群识别AI 解读

This article introduces a time-varying panel data model that incorporates latent group structures, designed to tackle both individual heterogeneity and smooth structural changes over time. We develop an innovative center-augmented K-power means (KPM) methodology that promotes convergence of subjects toward their respective cluster centers, enabling the identification of latent group structures without requiring prior knowledge of group composition. This approach delivers…

动态空间自回归模型的推断与变点检测AI 解读

We analyze a varying-coefficient spatial autoregressive model with spatial fixed effects. One salient feature of the model is the incorporation of multiple spatial weight matrices through their linear combinations with varying coefficients, which help solve the problem of choosing the most “correct” one for applied econometricians who often face the availability of multiple expert spatial weight matrices. We estimate and make inferences on the model coefficients and…

含内生性的时变线性变换面板模型中的偏效应AI 解读

This article develops a new estimator for an average partial effect in nonlinear panel models, where outcomes are time-varying monotonic transformations of latent variables that include fixed effects and endogenous regressors. The partial effect can be time-varying and the counterfactual shift is scale invariant—key advantages over the linear model. We exploit a conditional moment restriction and address the ill-posed nature of recovering the transformation functions using…

时变内生随机系数面板模型的识别与估计AI 解读

This paper proposes a correlated random coefficient linear panel data model, where regressors can be correlated with time-varying and individual-specific random coefficients through both a fixed effect and a time-varying random shock. I develop a new panel data-based method to identify the average partial effect and the local average response function. The identification strategy employs a sufficient statistic to control for the fixed effect and a control variable for the…

气候计量中的贝叶斯时空变系数建模：时空高斯过程方法AI 解读

Quantifying the economic impacts of weather variables has been a key empirical topic in understanding the impacts of climate change. While panel methods, which utilize cross-sectional differences in within-unit over-time changes in weather variables, have been widely used to credibly identify the average effect of interest, there has been a growing interest in understanding the distribution of potentially heterogeneous weather effects. The heterogeneity of the effects across…

基于潜在因子模型的个体化动态中介分析AI 解读

Mediation analysis plays a crucial role in causal inference as it can investigate the pathways through which treatment influences outcome. Most existing mediation analysis assumes that mediation effects are static and homogeneous within populations. However, mediation effects usually change over time and exhibit significant heterogeneity among individuals in many real-world applications. Additionally, the mediation mechanism can be complicated and involves non-sparse, making…

通过半对称张量主成分分析处理多网络数据AI 解读

Network data are commonly collected in a variety of applications, representing either directly measured or statistically inferred connections between subjects or features of interest. In an increasing number of domains, these networks are collected over time, such as repeated interactions between users of a social media platform, or across multiple subjects, such as in multi-subject neuroimaging studies. When analyzing multiple large networks, dimensionality reduction…

金融研究中的时变分组不可观测异质性AI 解读

Accounting for time-varying unobserved heterogeneity poses a fundamental challenge for empirical finance research. We show how grouped fixed effects (GFE) models capture such heterogeneity and illustrate their merits over conventional panel data models used in finance applications. We propose a new Hausman-type specification test to select among fixed effects models, and show that it differs from standard Hausman statistics precisely due to the presence of the time-varying…

响应缺失空间面板模型的固定效应估计：美国州税收竞争应用AI 解读

We consider estimation and inferences for general spatial panel data models with randomly missing observations on responses. It allows for unobserved spatiotemporal heterogeneity, time-varying endogenous and contextual spatial interactions, time-varying cross-sectional error dependence, and serial correlation. A general M-estimation method is proposed for model estimation and a novel corrected plug-in method is proposed for model inference. Both take into account the…

分组时变网络向量自回归模型的估计AI 解读

This paper introduces a flexible time-varying network vector autoregressive model framework for large-scale time series. A latent group structure is imposed on the heterogeneous and node-specific time-varying momentum and network spillover effects so that the number of unknown time-varying coefficients to be estimated can be reduced considerably. A classic agglomerative clustering algorithm with nonparametrically estimated distance matrix is combined with a ratio criterion…

贝叶斯图像中介分析AI 解读

Mediation analysis aims to separate the indirect effect through mediators from the direct effect of the exposure on the outcome. It is challenging to perform mediation analysis with neuroimaging data which involves high dimensionality, complex spatial correlations, sparse activation patterns and relatively low signal-to-noise ratio. To address these issues, we develop a new spatially varying coefficient structural equation model for Bayesian Image Mediation Analysis (BIMA).…

含未观测异质性的大型面板多重结构突变估计AI 解读

This article proposes a novel algorithm to identify potentially multiple breaks in linear panel data models, while the slope coefficients can have individual heterogeneity and the cross-sectional dimension is allowed to diverge jointly with the time span. The algorithm adopts a shrinkage penalty to detect breaks, and delivers a consistent estimator for the number of breaks and fraction-consistent estimators for break dates. In the presence of latent grouped heterogeneity, we…

动态选择下实验与观察数据结合的信息价值AI 解读

The Average Treatment Effect on the Treated Survivors (ATETS; Vikström et al., 2018) captures a composite effect of time-varying treatment and dynamic selection into the survivor population. We address the problem of identifying this treatment-effect parameter in the absence of long-term experimental data, utilizing available long-term observational data instead. This poses a nontrivial challenge in practice, as dynamic selection compounds static selection in observational…

连续时变处理下边际结构模型的非参数有效估计AI 解读

Summary Marginal structural models are a popular method for estimating causal effects in the presence of time-varying exposures. In spite of their popularity, no scalable nonparametric estimator exists for marginal structural models with multi-valued or continuous time-varying treatments. In this paper, we combine flexible, data-adaptive regression methods, including ensemble learning techniques, with recent developments in semiparametric efficiency theory for longitudinal…