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具有动态异质溢出的矩阵值空间自回归AI 解读

We introduce a new time-varying parameter spatial matrix autoregressive model that integrates matrix-valued time series, heterogeneous spillover effects, outlier robustness, and time-varying parameters in one unified framework. The model allows for separate dynamic spatial spillover effects across both the row and column dimensions of the matrix-valued observations. Robustness can be introduced via a matrix Student’s t distribution. The model can still be estimated…

迭代分布式多项回归AI 解读

This article introduces an iterative distributed computing estimator for the multinomial logistic regression model with large choice sets. Compared to the maximum likelihood estimator, the proposed iterative distributed estimator achieves significantly faster computation and, when initialized with a consistent estimator, attains asymptotic efficiency under a weak dominance condition. Additionally, we propose a parametric bootstrap inference procedure based on the iterative…

结合协变量与稀疏内在得分的实体排序AI 解读

This paper addresses the item ranking problem with associated covariates, focusing on scenarios where the preference scores can not be fully explained by covariates, and the remaining intrinsic scores are sparse. Specifically, we extend the pioneering Bradley-Terry-Luce (BTL) model by incorporating covariate information and considering sparse individual intrinsic scores. Our work introduces novel model identification conditions and examines the statistical rates of the…

高维秩一推断的伪最大似然理论AI 解读

We develop a pseudo-likelihood theory for rank one matrix estimation problems in the high-dimensional limit. We prove a variational principle for the limiting pseudo-maximum likelihood, which also characterizes the performance of the corresponding pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator. We show that this variational principle is universal and depends only on four parameters determined by the corresponding null model. Through this universality, we introduce a notion of…

短面板中的潜在因子分析AI 解读

We develop a pseudo maximum likelihood method for latent factor analysis in short panels without imposing sphericity nor Gaussianity. We derive an asymptotically uniformly most powerful invariant test for the number of factors. On a large panel of monthly U.S. stock returns, we separate month after month systematic and idiosyncratic risks in short subperiods of bear vs. bull market. We observe an uptrend in the paths of total and idiosyncratic volatilities. The systematic…

大规模网络的降秩多元空间自回归模型AI 解读

In spatial and social network analysis, multivariate spatial autoregressive (MSAR) models are effective tools for analyzing network data with multivariate responses. When the dimension of the response is divergent, however, the number of unknown parameters in an MSAR increases at a rate that is proportional to the square of the dimensionality, which poses significant challenges to the model estimation process. To address this issue, we propose a novel reduced-rank MSAR model…

结合目标学习推断的在线元层级自适应设计框架AI 解读

Adaptive designs are increasingly used in clinical trials and online experiments to improve participant outcomes by dynamically updating treatment allocation as data accumulate. In practice, experimenters often consider multiple candidate designs, each with distinct trade-offs. However, typically only one design is implemented at a time, leaving benefits and costs of alternative designs unobserved and unquantified. To address this, we propose a novel meta-level adaptive…

具有依赖边的自回归网络AI 解读

Abstract We propose an autoregressive framework for modelling dynamic networks with dependent edges. It encompasses models that accommodate, for example, transitivity, degree heterogenenity, and other stylized features often observed in real network data. By assuming the edges of networks at each time are independent conditionally on their lagged values, the models, which exhibit a close connection with temporal exponential random graph models, facilitate both simulation and…

交互效应动态面板模型中 QMLE 的效率AI 解读

This paper studies the problem of efficient estimation of panel data models in the presence of an increasing number of incidental parameters. We formulate the dynamic panel as a simultaneous equations system, and derive the efficiency bound under the normality assumption. We then show that the Gaussian quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) applied to the system achieves the efficiency bound without the normality assumption. Comparison of QMLE with the fixed effects…

网络辅助的高维因子模型估计AI 解读

This article takes advantage of group-level heterogeneity and network cohesion phenomenon to improve the estimation accuracy of approximate factor models. As large heterogeneous panels become available, a grouped pattern of unobserved heterogeneity in the panel data is highlighted. Clustering of factor loadings provides a solution to model group-level heterogeneity. Moreover, networks are frequently observed in economics and finance, which capture the interconnectivity…

随机权重矩阵与解释变量下空间自回归模型的拟得分匹配估计AI 解读

With the rapid advancements in technology for data collection, the application of the spatial autoregressive (SAR) model has become increasingly prevalent in real-world analysis, particularly when dealing with large datasets. However, the commonly used quasi-maximum likelihood estimation (QMLE) for the SAR model is not computationally scalable to handle the data with a large size. In addition, when establishing the asymptotic properties of the parameter estimators of the SAR…

曲率可学习的双曲网络潜在空间模型AI 解读

Network data is ubiquitous in various scientific disciplines, including sociology, economics, and neuroscience. Latent space models are often employed in network data analysis, but the geometric effect of latent space curvature remains a significant, unresolved issue. In this work, we propose a hyperbolic network latent space model with a learnable curvature parameter. We theoretically justify that learning the optimal curvature is essential to minimizing the embedding error…

带动态协变量的统计排序AI 解读

Abstract We introduce a general covariate-assisted statistical ranking model within the Plackett–Luce framework. Unlike previous studies that focus on individual effects with fixed covariates, our model allows covariates to vary across comparisons. This added flexibility enhances model fitting but also brings significant challenges in analysis. This article addresses these challenges in the context of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). We first provide necessary and…

含交互固定效应的高维离散选择模型及其因果推断应用AI 解读

ABSTRACT We propose a two‐step procedure to estimate a high dimensional discrete choice panel with interactive fixed effects where the initial and final estimators are obtained via a nuclear‐norm regularized (NNR) maximum likelihood estimation and post‐NNR iterated estimation, respectively. We apply the method to make counterfactual predictions of choice probabilities. Simulations demonstrate nice finite sample performance in estimation and tests. An illustrative application…

动态网络的双重异质性模型AI 解读

Analysis of networks that evolve dynamically requires the joint modelling of individual snapshots and time dynamics. This paper proposes a new flexible two-way heterogeneity model towards this goal. The new model equips each node of the network with two heterogeneity parameters, one to characterize the propensity to form ties with other nodes statically and the other to differentiate the tendency to retain existing ties over time. With n observed networks each having p…

利用 Copula 处理空间自回归模型中的内生性AI 解读

This paper develops a novel, instrument-free semiparametric copula framework for a spatial autoregressive (SAR) model to address endogeneity arising from an endogenous spatial weights matrix, endogenous regressors, or both. Moving beyond conventional Gaussian copulas, we develop a flexible estimator based on the Student’s t copula with an unknown degrees-of-freedom (df) parameter, which nests the Gaussian case and allows the data to determine the presence of tail dependence.…

双边关系模型中遗漏异质性的检验AI 解读

We develop a Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test of neglected heterogeneity in dyadic models. The test statistic is derived by modifying Breusch and Pagan (1980)’s test. We establish the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic under the null using a novel martingale construction. We also consider the power of the LM test in generic panel models. Even though the test is motivated by random effects, we show that it has a power for detecting fixed effects as well. Finally, we…

维度递增随机图模型中的似然比检验AI 解读

We explore the Wilks phenomena in two random graph models: the β-model and the Bradley–Terry model. For two increasing dimensional null hypotheses, including a specified null H0:βi=βi0 for i=1,…,r and a homogenous null H0:β1=⋯=βr, we reveal high dimensional Wilks’ phenomena that the normalized log-likelihood ratio statistic, [2{l(β̂)−l(β̂0)}−r]/(2r)1/2, converges in distribution to the standard normal distribution as r goes to infinity. Here, l(β) is the log-likelihood…

Plackett–Luce 模型中似然估计量的统一分析AI 解读

The Plackett–Luce model has been extensively used for rank aggregation in social choice theory. A central statistical question in this model concerns estimating the utility vector that governs the model’s likelihood. In this paper, we investigate the asymptotic theory of utility vector estimation by maximizing different types of likelihood, such as full, marginal, and quasi-likelihood. Starting from interpreting the estimating equations of these estimators to gain some…

需求的实解析离散选择模型：理论与含义AI 解读

We demonstrate that a large class of discrete choice models of demand can be approximated by real analytic demand models. We obtain this result by combining (i) a novel real analytic property of the mixed logit and the mixed probit models with any distribution of random coefficients and (ii) an approximation property of finite mixtures of Gumbel and Gaussian distributions. To illustrate some of the implications of this result, we discuss how real analyticity facilitates…

含结构变化的空间面板数据模型AI 解读

Spatial panel data models have gained widespread application in social sciences, particularly in economics, due to their ability to capture spatial dependencies. However, existing studies on spatial models typically rely on the assumption of parameter stability, which may be overly restrictive given the well-documented prevalence of structural changes in economic relationships. This paper addresses this limitation by proposing and analyzing spatial panel data models that…

纵向网络数据的半参数建模与分析AI 解读

We introduce a semiparametric latent space model for analyzing longitudinal network data. The model consists of a static latent space component and a time-varying node-specific baseline component. We develop a semiparametric efficient score equation for the latent space parameter by adjusting for the baseline nuisance component. Estimation is accomplished through a one-step update estimator and an appropriately penalized maximum likelihood estimator. We derive oracle error…

交叉随机效应 probit 模型的一致且可扩展复合似然估计AI 解读

Summary Estimation of crossed random effects models commonly incurs computational costs that grow faster than linearly in the sample size $ N $, often as fast as $ \Omega(N^{3/2}) $, making them unsuitable for large datasets. For non-Gaussian responses, integrating out the random effects to obtain a marginal likelihood poses significant challenges, especially for high-dimensional integrals for which the Laplace approximation may not be accurate. In this article we develop a…

兼顾多样性与异质受欢迎程度的超图建模AI 解读

While relations among individuals make an important part of data with scientific and business interests, existing statistical modeling of relational data has mainly been focusing on dyadic relations, that is, those between two individuals.This article addresses the less studied, though commonly encountered, polyadic relations that can involve more than two individuals.In particular, we propose a new latent space model for hypergraphs using determinantal point processes,…