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基于广义经验似然隐含概率的结构变化检验AI 解读

This paper proposes Pearson-type statistics based on implied probabilities to detect structural change. The class of generalized empirical likelihood estimators (see Smith 1997, The Economic Journal 107, 503–519) assigns a set of implied probabilities to each observation such that moment conditions are satisfied. The proposed test statistics for structural change are based on the information content in these implied probabilities. We consider cases of structural change with…

阿基米德 Copula 与时间依赖AI 解读

We study the dependence properties of stationary Markov chains generated by Archimedean copulas. Under some simple regularity conditions, we show that regular variation of the Archimedean generator at zero and one implies geometric ergodicity of the associated Markov chain. We verify our assumptions for a range of Archimedean copulas used in applications.

时空模型中的联合复合估计函数AI 解读

Summary Modelling of spatiotemporal processes has received considerable attention in recent statistical research. However, owing to the high dimensionality of the data, the joint modelling of spatial and temporal processes presents a great computational challenge, in both likelihood-based and Bayesian approaches. We propose a joint composite estimating function approach to estimating spatiotemporal covariance structures. This substantially reduces the computational…

持久性变点的比率型估计量AI 解读

We study estimation of the date of change in persistence, from I(0) to I(1) or vice versa. Contrary to statements in the original papers, our analytical results establish that the ratio-based break point estimators of Kim [Kim, J.Y., 2000. Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series. Journal of Econometrics 95, 97–116], Kim et al. [Kim, J.Y., Belaire-Franch, J., Badillo Amador, R., 2002. Corringendum to “Detection of change in persistence of a linear time…

贴现因子接近一时现值模型的计量分析AI 解读

This paper develops asymptotic econometric theory to help understand data generated by a present value model with a discount factor near one. A leading application is to exchange rate models. A key assumption of the asymptotic theory is that the discount factor approaches one as the sample size grows. The finite sample approximation implied by the asymptotic theory is quantitatively congruent with the modest departures from random walk behavior that are typically found and…

通胀预期的期限结构AI 解读

We use information in the term structure of survey-based forecasts of inflation to estimate a factor hidden in the nominal yield curve. We construct a model that accommodates forecasts over multiple horizons from multiple surveys and Treasury real and nominal yields by allowing for differences between risk-neutral, subjective, and objective probability measures. We establish that model-based inflation expectations are driven by inflation, output, and one latent factor. We…

误设隐马尔可夫模型中最大似然估计的渐近性质AI 解读

Let $(Y_{k})_{k\in\mathbb{Z}}$ be a stationary sequence on a probability space $(\Omega,\mathcal{A},\mathbb{P})$ taking values in a standard Borel space $\mathsf{Y}$. Consider the associated maximum likelihood estimator with respect to a parametrized family of hidden Markov models such that the law of the observations $(Y_{k})_{k\in\mathbb{Z}}$ is not assumed to be described by any of the hidden Markov models of this family. In this paper we investigate the consistency of…

局部平稳时间序列的非参数回归AI 解读

In this paper, we study nonparametric models allowing for locally stationary regressors and a regression function that changes smoothly over time. These models are a natural extension of time series models with time-varying coefficients. We introduce a kernel-based method to estimate the time-varying regression function and provide asymptotic theory for our estimates. Moreover, we show that the main conditions of the theory are satisfied for a large class of nonlinear…

ARMA误差不相关性检验：非标准Andrews–Ploberger检验AI 解读

A problem of interest in economic and finance applications is testing whether ARMA (Autoregressive moving average) errors are uncorrelated under weak assumptions, namely assumptions where the errors are neither iid nor a martingale difference. In this paper, non‐standard versions of the tests of serial correlation introduced by Andrews and Ploberger (1996, hereafter AP) are proposed for diagnostic checking of ARMA errors. The original AP tests are designed for the case where…

结构变化的非参数检测与估计AI 解读

We propose a semi‐non‐parametric approach to the estimation and testing of structural change in time series regression models. Under the null of a given set of the coefficients being constant, we develop estimators of both the time‐varying (non‐parametric) and constant (parametric) components. Given the estimators under null and alternative, generalized F and Wald tests are developed. The asymptotic distributions of the estimators and test statistics are derived. A…

线性时间序列模型的核加权 GMM 估计量AI 解读

This paper analyzes the higher-order asymptotic properties of generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators for linear time series models using many lags as instruments. A data-dependent moment selection method based on minimizing the approximate mean squared error is developed. In addition, a new version of the GMM estimator based on kernel-weighted moment conditions is proposed. It is shown that kernel-weighted GMM estimators can reduce the asymptotic bias compared to…

弱识别下的广义经验似然统计量AI 解读

The central concern of this paper is the provision in a time series moment condition framework of practical recommendations of confidence regions for parameters whose coverage probabilities are robust to the strength or weakness of identification. To this end we develop Pearson-type test statistics based on GEL implied probabilities formed from general kernel smoothed versions of the moment indicators. We also modify the statistics suggested in Guggenberger and Smith (2008)…

含内生解释变量的线性模型中多重结构变化的推断AI 解读

This paper considers the linear model with endogenous regressors and multiple changes in the parameters at unknown times. It is shown that minimization of a Generalized Method of Moments criterion yields inconsistent estimators of the break fractions, but minimization of the Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS) criterion yields consistent estimators of these parameters. We develop a methodology for estimation and inference of the parameters of the model based on 2SLS. The analysis…

DSGE模型脉冲响应匹配估计的信息准则AI 解读

We propose new information criteria for impulse response function matching estimators (IRFMEs). These estimators yield sampling distributions of the structural parameters of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models by minimizing the distance between sample and theoretical impulse responses. First, we propose an information criterion to select only the responses that produce consistent estimates of the true but unknown structural parameters: the Valid Impulse…

条件矩限制时间序列模型的局部GMM估计AI 解读

This paper investigates statistical properties of the local generalized method of moments (LGMM) estimator for some time series models defined by conditional moment restrictions. First, we consider Markov processes with possible conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown forms and establish the consistency, asymptotic normality, and semi-parametric efficiency of the LGMM estimator. Second, we undertake a higher-order asymptotic expansion and demonstrate that the LGMM…

使用多版本数据模型改进产出与通胀缺口的实时估计AI 解读

Real-time estimates of output gaps and inflation gaps differ from the values that are obtained using data available long after the event. Part of the problem is that the data on which the real-time estimates are based is subsequently revised. We show that vector-autoregressive models of data vintages provide forecasts of post-revision values of future observations and of already-released observations capable of improving estimates of output and inflation gaps in real time.…

美国违约计数的动态因子模型：宏观、潜在脆弱性与行业效应及2008年信贷危机AI 解读

We develop a high-dimensional, nonlinear, and non-Gaussian dynamic factor model for the decomposition of systematic default risk conditions into latent components for (1) macroeconomic/financial risk, (2) autonomous default dynamics (frailty), and (3) industry-specific effects. We analyze discrete U.S. corporate default counts together with macroeconomic and financial variables in one unifying framework. We find that approximately 35% of default rate variation is due to…

利用大量预测变量进行预测的广义收缩方法AI 解读

This article provides a simple shrinkage representation that describes the operational characteristics of various forecasting methods designed for a large number of orthogonal predictors (such as principal components). These methods include pretest methods, Bayesian model averaging, empirical Bayes, and bagging. We compare empirically forecasts from these methods with dynamic factor model (DFM) forecasts using a U.S. macroeconomic dataset with 143 quarterly variables…

增广 HEGY 季节单位根检验AI 解读

In this paper we extend the large-sample results provided for the augmented Dickey–Fuller test by Said and Dickey (1984, Biometrika 71, 599–607) and Chang and Park (2002, Econometric Reviews 21, 431–447) to the case of the augmented seasonal unit root tests of Hylleberg, Engle, Granger, and Yoo (1990, Journal of Econometrics 44, 215–238), inter alia. Our analysis is performed under the same conditions on the innovations as in Chang and Park (2002), thereby allowing for…

具有经典渐近性质的持久性及可能非平稳数据估计量AI 解读

This paper considers a moments-based nonlinear estimator that is $\root \of T $ -consistent and uniformly asymptotically normal irrespective of the degree of persistence of the forcing process. These properties hold for linear autoregressive models, linear predictive regressions, and certain nonlinear dynamic models. Asymptotic normality is obtained because the moments are chosen so that the objective function is uniformly bounded in probability and so that a central limit…

近历依赖下局部线性拟合的一致收敛及其速率AI 解读

Local linear fitting is a popular nonparametric method in statistical and econometric modeling. Lu and Linton (2007, Econometric Theory 23, 37–70) established the pointwise asymptotic distribution for the local linear estimator of a nonparametric regression function under the condition of near epoch dependence. In this paper, we further investigate the uniform consistency of this estimator. The uniform strong and weak consistencies with convergence rates for the local linear…

有限或无限方差 ARMA 模型的全局加权最小绝对偏差估计AI 解读

This paper investigates the global self-weighted least absolute deviation (SLAD) estimator for finite and infinite variance ARMA( p , q ) models. The strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the global SLAD estimator are obtained. A simulation study is carried out to assess the performance of the global SLAD estimators. In this paper the asymptotic theory of the global LAD estimator for finite and infinite variance ARMA( p , q ) models is established in the literature…

半参数局部平稳扩散模型的估计AI 解读

This paper proposes a class of locally stationary diffusion processes. The model has a time varying but locally linear drift and a volatility coefficient that is allowed to vary over time and space. The model is semiparametric because we allow these functions to be unknown and the innovation process is parametrically specified, indeed completely known. We propose estimators of all the unknown quantities based on long span data. Our estimation method makes use of the property…

预测能力的样本内检验：一种新方法AI 解读

This paper presents evidence linking in-sample tests of predictive content and out-of-sample forecast accuracy. Our approach focuses on the negative effect that finite-sample estimation error has on forecast accuracy despite the presence of significant population-level predictive content. We derive in-sample tests that assess whether a variable has predictive content and whether this content is estimated precisely enough to improve forecast accuracy. Our tests are…