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不同技术的预测准确性：美国宏观经济预测比较
(1986). Forecasting Accuracy of Alternative Techniques: A Comparison of U.S. Macroeconomic Forecasts. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics: Vol. 4, No. 1, pp. 5-15.
经济时间序列中测量误差的度量
A spectral decomposition method is described for obtaining an upper bound on the amount of measurement error in a time series. The method is applied to generated data and to M1b, real GNP, and the CPI. The bounds provide insight into both the amount of measurement error in these series and the stochastic specification of the errors.
定义型变量的单变量 ARIMA 预测
Many important variables in business and economics are neither measured nor measurable but are simply defined in terms of other measured variables. For instance, the real interest rate is defined as the difference between the nominal interest rate and the inflation rate. There are two ways to forecast a defined variable: one can directly forecast the variable itself, or one can derive the forecast of the defined variable indirectly from the forecasts of the constituent…
经济预测的组合
A method for combining forecasts may or may not account for dependence and differing precision among forecasts. In this article we test a variety of such methods in the context of combining forecasts of GNP from four major econometric models. The methods include one in which forecasting errors are jointly normally distributed and several variants of this model as well as some simpler procedures and a Bayesian approach with a prior distribution based on exchangeability of…
不同技术的预测准确性：美国宏观经济预测比较——Spivey 评论
W. Allen Spivey, [Forecasting Accuracy of Alternative Techniques: A Comparison of U.S. Macroeconomic Forecasts]: Comment, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Vol. 4, No. 1 (Jan., 1986), pp. 19-22
不同技术的预测准确性：美国宏观经济预测比较——Litterman 评论
Robert B. Litterman, [Forecasting Accuracy of Alternative Techniques: A Comparison of U.S. Macroeconomic Forecasts]: Comment, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Vol. 4, No. 1 (Jan., 1986), pp. 17-19
不同技术的预测准确性：美国宏观经济预测比较——Granger 评论
C. W. J. Granger, [Forecasting Accuracy of Alternative Techniques: A Comparison of U.S. Macroeconomic Forecasts]: Comment, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Vol. 4, No. 1 (Jan., 1986), pp. 16-17
使用贝叶斯向量自回归进行预测：五年经验
The results obtained in five years of forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVAR's) demonstrate that this inexpensive, reproducible statistical technique is as accurate, on average, as those used by the best known commercial forecasting services. This article considers the problem of economic forecasting, the justification for the Bayesian approach, its implementation, and the performance of one small BVAR model over the past five years.
向量时间序列技术在宏观经济预测中的应用
A wide variety of time series techniques are now used for generating forecasts of economic variables, with each technique attempting to summarize and exploit whatever regularities exist in a given data set. It appears that many researchers arbitrarily choose one of these techniques. The purpose of this article is to provide an example for which the choice of time series technique appears important; merely choosing arbitrarily among available techniques may lead to suboptimal…
经济预测的统计方法
A recently developed statistical model, called Bayesian vector autoregression, has proven to be a useful tool for economic forecasting. Such a model today forecasts a strong resurgence of growth in the second half of 1985 and in 1986.
单变量时间序列模型的诊断检验
The portmanteau statistic for testing the adequacy of an autoregressive-moving average model is based on the first m autocorrelations of the residuals from the fitted model. This paper examines the properties of this test for various choices of m. A modification which allows the use of small values of m is shown to result in a more powerful test. The Lagrange multiplier statistic (Godfrey, 1979) and a test statistic examined by Newbold (1980) are also discussed.
时间序列自激门限自回归型非线性的综合检验
A portmanteau test to detect self-exciting threshold autoregressive-type nonlinearity in time series data is proposed. The test is based on cumulative sums of standardized residuals from autoregressive fits to the data. Significance levels for the test under the hypothesis of linearity are obtain from the asymptotic distribution of the cumulative sums as Brownian motion. The performance of the test is evaluated for simulated data from linear, bilinear and self-exciting…
自回归移动平均模型的普通与似然型位置M估计
Proper location M-estimates for a model with non-Gaussian autoregressive-moving average type errors are genuine maximum likelihood type estimates, whereas ordinary location M-estimates are those introduced by P. Huber for independent and identically distributed errors. The relative behaviour of ordinary location M-estimates and proper location M-estimates is studied for situations with dependent errors of purely autoregress ive and purely moving average type. It is shown…
参数经估计的状态空间模型预测均方误差
We obtain a conditional prediction mean squared error for a state space model with estimated parameters. An important application of our results is the derivation of conditional forecast and interpolation mean squared errors for autoregressive-moving average models with estimated parameters. We also obtain the conditional mean squared error for filtered and smoothed estimates of the state vector.
季节性移动平均模型的快速滤波
Pearlman (1980) gives a fast filtering algorithm for an ARMA, i.e. autoregressive-moving average, model. When the algorithm is applied to a seasonal moving average model significant computational savings can be obtained by taking advantage of the structural zeros noted by Kohn & Ansley (1984) and Melard (1984). In this paper we identify a second set of structural zeros which leads to further significant computational savings. Our results can be applied to produce a fast…
非高斯平稳时间序列的独立同分布创新移动平均表示的唯一性
Full-spectrum, non-Gaussian stationary series can have at most one representation as a moving average of independent and identically distributed random variables having finite moments of all orders.
时间序列的非线性检验
This paper considers two nonlinearity tests for stationary time series. The idea of Tukey's one degree of freedom for nonadditivity test is generalized to the time series setting. The case of concurrent nonlinearity is discussed in detail. Simulation results show that the proposed tests are more powerful than that of Keenan (1985).
异方差一阶自回归模型的得分检验
A score test is proposed for simultaneous testing of independence and homoscedasticity in the first-order autoregressive model with nonconstant variance. The relationships between the score test statistic and the local influence of minor perturbations on a statistical model are examined.
若干序列结构方差矩阵的分解
Serially-structured variance matrices which can be decomposed into lower-triangular band matrices are defined. These may be thought of as the variance matrices of finite realizations of generalized autoregressive-moving average processes. A large number of serially-generated stochastic processes are shown to be of this type.
指数族独立随机变量序列的变点检验与置信区域
SUMMARY Maximum likelihood methods are used to test for a change in a sequence of independent exponential family random variables, with particular emphasis on the exponential distribution. The exact null and alternative distributions of the test statistics are found, and the power is compared with a test based on a linear trend statistic. Exact and approximate confidence regions for the change-point are based on the values accepted by a level x likelihood ratio test and a…
线性系统的递归估计
The estimation of parameters for a scalar linear system with rational transfer function is considered, the estimates being updated each time a new data point comes to hand. Two well-known algorithms are compared by simulation with a method related to the three-stage algorithm of Hannan & Rissanen (1982); a computation scheme using Givens transformations is proposed which makes the three-stage recursive algorithm economical. A central limit theorem is proved for the…
多元时间序列的降秩模型
This paper is concerned with the investigation of reduced rank coefficient models for multiple time series. In particular, autoregressive processes which have a structure to their coefficient matrices similar to that of classical multivariate reduced rank regression are studied in detail. The estimation of parameters and associated asymptotic theory are derived. The exact correspondence between the reduced rank regression procedure for multiple autoregressive processes and…
含变点泊松过程的贝叶斯分析
A Bayesian approach to estimation and hypothesis testing for a Poisson process with a change-point is developed, and an example given.