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重印：异质面板中的单位根检验AI 解读

This paper proposes unit root tests for dynamic heterogeneous panels based on the mean of individual unit root statistics. In particular it proposes a standardized t-bar test statistic based on the (augmented) Dickey–Fuller statistics averaged across the groups. Under a general setting this statistic is shown to converge in probability to a standard normal variate sequentially with T (the time series dimension) →∞, followed by N (the cross sectional dimension) →∞. A diagonal…

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层级多因子误差下多维异质面板的估计与推断AI 解读

Given the growing availability of large datasets and following recent research trends on multi-dimensional modelling, we develop three dimensional (3D) panel data models with hierarchical error components that allow for strong cross-section dependence through unobserved heterogeneous global and local factors. We propose consistent estimation procedures by extending the common correlated effects (CCE) estimation approach proposed by Pesaran (2006). The standard CCE approach…

具有截面依赖的随机前沿面板中的技术效率建模AI 解读

Summary This paper proposes a unified framework for accommodating both time and cross‐sectional dependence in modelling technical efficiency in stochastic frontier models by combining the exogenously driven factor‐based approach and an endogenous threshold efficiency regime selection mechanism. This approach is able to deal with both weak and strong cross‐sectional dependence in a flexible manner. Using a dataset of 26 OECD countries over 1970–2010, we provide satisfactory…

自回归分布滞后框架中的分位数协整AI 解读

Xiao (2009) develops a novel estimation technique for quantile cointegrated time series by extending Phillips and Hansen’s (1990) semiparametric approach and Saikkonen’s (1991) parametrically augmented approach. This paper extends Pesaran and Shin’s (1998) autoregressive distributed-lag approach into quantile regression by jointly analyzing short-run dynamics and long-run cointegrating relationships across a range of quantiles. We derive the asymptotic theory and provide a…

GVAR 框架下产出增长、通胀与贸易差额的概率预测AI 解读

SUMMARY We apply a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model to the analysis of inflation, output growth and global imbalances among a group of 33 countries (26 regions). We account for structural instability by use of country‐specific intercept shifts, the timings of which are identified taking into account both statistical evidence and our knowledge of historic economic conditions and events. Using this model, we compute both central forecasts and scenario‐based…

欧盟内部贸易引力模型：异质共同因子面板中的 CCEP-HT 估计AI 解读

Abstract We follow recent developments of panel data studies and allow for the existence of both observed and unobserved common factors where their individual responses are allowed to be heterogeneous. We then develop a generalized Hausman–Taylor estimation methodology, and apply our proposed estimation technique to an analysis of the gravity equation of bilateral trade flows among 15 European countries over 1960–2001. Empirical results demonstrate that our proposed approach…

三区制SETAR模型中的单位根检验AI 解读

This paper proposes a simple testing procedure to distinguish a unit root process from a globally stationary three-regime self-exciting threshold autoregressive process. Following the threshold cointegration literature we assume that the process follows the random walk in the corridor regime, and therefore we propose that the null of a unit root be tested by the Wald statistic for the joint significance of autoregressive parameters in both lower and upper regimes. We…

非线性平滑转换误差修正模型中的协整检验AI 解读

This paper proposes a new testing procedure to detect the presence of a cointegrating relationship that follows a globally stationary smooth transition process. In the context of nonlinear smooth transition error correction models (ECMs) we provide two simple operational versions of the tests. First, we obtain the associated nonlinear ECM-based tests. Second, we derive the nonlinear analogue of the residual-based test for cointegration in linear models. We derive the…

异质面板平稳性的均值组检验AI 解读

This paper proposes a panel-based mean group test for the null of stationarity against the alternative of unit roots in the presence of both heterogeneity across cross-section units and serial correlation across time periods. Using both sequential and joint asymptotic analyses the proposed test statistic is shown to be distributed as standard normal under the null for large N (number of groups) and large T (number of time periods). Monte Carlo results support the use of…

宏观经济建模中的预测不确定性AI 解读

Weargue that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macroeconomic forecasts in a straightforward manner that is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts obtained using a small benchmark macroeconometric model and a number of other alternatives are presented and evaluated using recursive forecasts generated over the period 1999q1–2001q1. Out-of-sample probability forecasts of…

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非线性 STAR 框架下的单位根检验AI 解读

In this paper, we propose a simple testing procedure to detect the presence of nonstationarity against nonlinear but globally stationary exponential smooth transition autoregressive processes. We provide an advance over the existing literature in three senses. First, we derive the limiting nonstandard distribution of the proposed tests. Second, we find via Monte Carlo simulation exercises that under the alternative of a globally stationary ESTAR process, our proposed test…

水平关系分析的界限检验方法AI 解读

Abstract This paper develops a new approach to the problem of testing the existence of a level relationship between a dependent variable and a set of regressors, when it is not known with certainty whether the underlying regressors are trend‐ or first‐difference stationary. The proposed tests are based on standard F ‐ and t ‐statistics used to test the significance of the lagged levels of the variables in a univariate equilibrium correction mechanism. The asymptotic…

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动态异质面板的混合均值组估计AI 解读

It is now quite common to have panels in which both T, the number of time series observations, and N, the number of groups, are quite large and of the same order of magnitude. The usual practice is either to estimate N separate regressions and calculate the coefficient means, which we call the mean group (MG) estimator, or to pool the data and assume that the slope coefficients and error variances are identical. In this article we propose an intermediate procedure, the…

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以协整为原假设、无协整为备择的残差检验AI 解读

This paper proposes a residual-based test of the null of cointegration using a structural single equation model. It is shown that the limiting distribution of the test statistic for cointegration can be made free of nuisance parameters when the cointegrating relation is efficiently estimated. The limiting distributions are given in terms of a mixture of a Brownian bridge and vector Brownian motion. It is also shown that this test is consistent. Critical values are given for…

以平稳性为原假设、单位根为备择的检验AI 解读

We propose a test of the null hypothesis that an observable series is stationary around a deterministic trend. The series is expressed as the sum of deterministic trend, random walk, and stationary error, and the test is the LM test of the hypothesis that the random walk has zero variance. The asymptotic distribution of the statistic is derived under the null and under the alternative that the series is difference-stationary. Finite sample size and power are considered in a…