Forecasting Consumption: the Role of Consumer Confidence in Real Time with many Predictors
消费预测：大量预测变量下消费者信心的实时作用
Summary We study the role of consumer confidence in forecasting real personal consumption expenditure, and contribute to the extant literature in three substantive ways. First, we re‐examine existing empirical models of consumption and consumer confidence, not only at the quarterly frequency, but using monthly data as well. Second, we employ real‐time data in addition to commonly used revised vintages. Third, we investigate the role of consumer confidence in a rich…