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气候敏感度是否因地区而异？变系数方法AI 解读

Global mean surface temperature has been increasing in response to growing greenhouse gas concentrations (IPCC, 2021). While Earth is getting warmer overall, regions that have different local geographical features experience unequal increases in temperature. In this paper, we develop a varying-coefficient dynamic panel data model and use it to measure local climate sensitivity, defined as the increase in temperature in a given location following a doubling of CO2…

结合代理变量与叙事符号限制：重新考察技术冲击的影响AI 解读

ABSTRACT This paper proposes a novel integration of the proxy structural vector autoregression approach with narrative sign restrictions to identify multiple shocks with multiple instrumental variables. We show that this combination leads to informative inferences on shock effects through both analytical demonstrations and Monte Carlo simulations. Applying this method to identify anticipated and unanticipated technology shocks, we find that anticipated shocks account for…

《利用不完整数据理解 COVID-19 疫情动态的回归模型》讨论AI 解读

We would like to congratulate Quick, Dey, and Lin on developing the flexible statistical modeling framework MERMAID for assessing transmissibility of COVID-19 and associated drivers with incomplete...

小规模实验室验证集下多病原体监测数据的时空建模AI 解读

Many surveillance systems of infectious diseases are syndrome-based, capturing patients by clinical manifestation. Only a fraction of patients, mostly severe cases, undergo laboratory validation to identify the underlying pathogen. Motivated by the need to understand transmission dynamics and associate risk factors of enteroviruses causing the hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in China, we developed a Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling framework for surveillance data of…

竞争传染病原体的贝叶斯建模：实验室结果不完整的流感研究AI 解读

In seasonal influenza epidemics, pathogens such as respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) often co-circulate with influenza and cause influenza-like illness (ILI) in human hosts. However, it is often impractical to test for each potential pathogen or to collect specimens for each observed ILI episode, making inference about influenza transmission difficult. In the setting of infectious diseases, missing outcomes impose a particular challenge because of the dependence among…

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