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通过干扰平衡设计网络实验AI 解读

Randomized experiments are widely used to estimate the causal effects of treatment or intervention across various scientific fields. Nowadays, numerous experiments are conducted in network settings where the outcome of one unit depends not only on its own treatment but also on the treatments of other units within the network. This phenomenon, known as network interference, poses significant challenges for experimental design. Existing randomization methods often neglect…

企业违约概率：单指标风险率模型方法AI 解读

Corporate probability of default (PD) prediction is vitally important for risk management and asset pricing. In search of accurate PD prediction, we propose a flexible yet easy-to-interpret default-prediction single-index hazard model (DSI). By applying it to a comprehensive U.S. corporate bankruptcy database we constructed, we discover an interesting V-shaped relationship, indicating a violation of the common linear hazard specification. Most importantly, the single-index…

纵向数据的超高维分位数回归：血压分析应用AI 解读

Despite major advances in research and treatment, identifying important genotype risk factors for high blood pressure remains challenging. Traditional genome-wide association studies (GWAS) focus on one single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) at a time. We aim to select among over half a million SNPs along with time-varying phenotype variables via simultaneous modeling and variable selection, focusing on the most dangerous blood pressure levels at high quantiles. Taking…

有序变量间偏关联的量化、可视化与假设检验AI 解读

Partial association refers to the relationship between variables Y1,Y2,…,YK while adjusting for a set of covariates X={X1,…,Xp}. To assess such an association when Yk’s are recorded on ordinal scales, a classical approach is to use partial correlation between the latent continuous variables. This so-called polychoric correlation is inadequate, as it requires multivariate normality and it only reflects a linear association. We propose a new framework for studying…

用于违约概率预测的一类离散变换生存模型AI 解读

Corporate bankruptcy prediction plays a central role in academic finance research, business practice, and government regulation. Consequently, accurate default probability prediction is extremely important. We propose to apply a discrete transformation family of survival models to corporate default risk predictions. A class of Box-Cox transformations and logarithmic transformations is naturally adopted. The proposed transformation model family is shown to include the popular…

用多维选择性项目反应回归研究 SV40 致癌通路中的多基因甲基化AI 解读

Alteration of gene methylation patterns has been reported to be involved in the early onsets of many human malignancies. Many exogenous risk factors, such as cigarette smoke, dietary additives, chemical exposures, radiation, and biologic agents including viral infection, are involved in the methylation pathways of cancers. We propose a multidimensional selective item response regression model to describe and test how a risk factor may alter molecular pathways involving…

用半参数惩罚样条估计公司债利率期限结构AI 解读

This article provides a new methodology for estimating the term structure of corporate debt using a semiparametric penalized spline model. The method is applied to a case study of AT&T bonds. Typically, very few data are available on individual corporate bond prices, too little to find a nonparametric estimate of term structure from these bonds alone. This problem is solved by “borrowing strength” from Treasury bond data. More specifically, we combine a nonparametric model…

部分线性单指标模型的惩罚样条估计AI 解读

Single-index models are potentially important tools for multivariate nonparametric regression. They generalize linear regression by replacing the linear combination α0Tx with a nonparametric component, η0(α0Tx), where η0(·) is an unknown univariate link function. By reducing the dimensionality from that of a general covariate vector x to a univariate index α0Tx, single-index models avoid the so-called “curse of dimensionality.” We propose penalized spline (P-spline)…