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基于 NHANES 混合生物监测数据评估美国人的 PCB 与 PBDE 暴露差异AI 解读

The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) has been continuously biomonitoring Americans' exposure to two families of harmful environmental chemicals: polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). However, biomonitoring these chemicals is expensive. To save cost, in 2005, NHANES resorted to pooled biomonitoring; i.e., amalgamating individual specimens to form a pool and measuring chemical levels from pools. Despite being…

时变转移概率状态转换模型中最大似然估计量的渐近性质AI 解读

Summary Time-varying transition probability (TVTP) regime-switching models extend the constant regime transition probability in Markov-switching models to include information from observations. We show consistency and asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) in general TVTP regime-switching models where the conditional distribution of $Y_t$ depends on lagged regimes. Consistency of the MLE is also shown under misspecification. The assumptions are…

金融经济学中的错误发现与遗漏发现AI 解读

ABSTRACT Multiple testing plagues many important questions in finance such as fund and factor selection. We propose a new way to calibrate both Type I and Type II errors. Next, using a double‐bootstrap method, we establish a t ‐statistic hurdle that is associated with a specific false discovery rate (e.g., 5%). We also establish a hurdle that is associated with a certain acceptable ratio of misses to false discoveries (Type II error scaled by Type I error), which effectively…