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利用闭式似然展开估计仿射多因子期限结构模型AI 解读

We develop and implement a technique for closed-form maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of multifactor affine yield models. We derive closed-form approximations to likelihoods for nine Dai and Singleton (2000) affine models. Simulations show our technique very accurately approximates true (but infeasible) MLE. Using US Treasury data, we estimate nine affine yield models with different market price of risk specifications. MLE allows non-nested model comparison using…

高频数据中跳跃活动程度的估计AI 解读

We define a generalized index of jump activity, propose estimators of that index for a discretely sampled process and derive the estimators’ properties. These estimators are applicable despite the presence of Brownian volatility in the process, which makes it more challenging to infer the characteristics of the small, infinite activity jumps. When the method is applied to high frequency stock returns, we find evidence of infinitely active jumps in the data and estimate their…

基于转移分布的跳跃扩散非参数检验AI 解读

We develop a specification test for the transition density of a discretely sampled continuous-time jump-diffusion process, based on a comparison of a nonparametric estimate of the transition density or distribution function with their corresponding parametric counterparts assumed by the null hypothesis. As a special case, our method applies to pure diffusions. We provide a direct comparison of the two densities for an arbitrary specification of the null parametric model…

离散观测过程中的跳跃检验AI 解读

We propose a new test to determine whether jumps are present in asset returns or other discretely sampled processes. As the sampling interval tends to 0, our test statistic converges to 1 if there are jumps, and to another deterministic and known value (such as 2) if there are no jumps. The test is valid for all Itô semimartingales, depends neither on the law of the process nor on the coefficients of the equation which it solves, does not require a preliminary estimation of…

二次变差的样本外预测AI 解读

We compare the forecasts of Quadratic Variation given by the Realized Volatility (RV) and the Two Scales Realized Volatility (TSRV)Â computed from high frequency data in the presence of market microstructure noise, under several different dynamics for the volatility process and assumptions on the noise. We show that TSRV largely outperforms RV, whether looking at bias, variance, RMSE or out-of-sample forecasting ability. An empirical application to all DJIA stocks confirms…

This paper provides closed-form expansions for the transition density and likelihood function of arbitrary multivariate diffusions.The expansions are based on a Hermite series, whose coefficients are calculated explicitly by exploiting the special structure afforded by the diffusion hypothesis.Because the transition function for most diffusion models is not known explicitly, the expansions of this paper can help make maximum-likelihood a practical estimation method for…

离散采样 Lévy 过程的波动率估计AI 解读

This paper studies the estimation of the volatility parameter in a model where the driving process is a Brownian motion or a more general symmetric stable process that is perturbed by another Lévy process. We distinguish between a parametric case, where the law of the perturbing process is known, and a semiparametric case, where it is not. In the parametric case, we construct estimators which are asymptotically efficient. In the semiparametric case, we can obtain…

摘要暂缺

两个时间尺度的故事AI 解读

It is a common practice in finance to estimate volatility from the sum of frequently sampled squared returns. However, market microstructure poses challenges to this estimation approach, as evidenced by recent empirical studies in finance. The present work attempts to lay out theoretical grounds that reconcile continuous-time modeling and discrete-time samples. We propose an estimation approach that takes advantage of the rich sources in tick-by-tick data while preserving…

随机间隔离散观测下扩散过程估计量的一般理论AI 解读

We provide a general method to analyze the asymptotic properties of a variety of estimators of continuous time diffusion processes when the data are not only discretely sampled in time but the time separating successive observations may possibly be random. We introduce a new operator, the generalized infinitesimal generator, to obtain Taylor expansions of the asymptotic moments of the estimators. As a special case, our results apply to the situation where the data are…