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湿能量平衡模型中的极地放大：结构计量估计与检验AI 解读

Poleward transport of atmospheric moisture and heat play major roles in the magnification of warming in poleward latitudes per degree of global warming, a phenomenon known as polar amplification (PA). We derive a time series econometric framework using a system of equations that have error-correction mechanisms restricted across equations to estimate and an identification strategy to recover the parameters of a moist energy balance model (MEBM) similar to those in the recent…

超越 RCP8.5：利用准代表性浓度路径评估边际减排AI 解读

Assessments of decreases in economic damages from climate change mitigation typically rely on climate output from computationally expensive pre-computed runs of general circulation models under a handful of scenarios with discretely varying targets, such as the four representative concentration pathways for CO2 and other anthropogenically emitted gases. Although such analyses are valuable in informing scientists and policymakers about massive multilateral mitigation goals,…

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非线性科学统计推断的若干理论AI 解读

This article shows how standard errors can be estimated for a measure of the number of excited degrees of freedom (the correlation dimension), and a measure of the rate of information creation (a proxy for the Kolmogorov entropy), and a measure of instability. These measures are motivated by nonlinear science and chaos theory. The main analytical method is central limit theory of U-statistics for mixing processes. The paper takes a step toward formal hypothesis testing in…