RISK MINIMIZATION FOR TIME SERIES BINARY CHOICE WITH VARIABLE SELECTION
带变量选择的时间序列二元选择风险最小化
This paper considers the problem of predicting binary choices by selecting from a possibly large set of candidate explanatory variables, which can include both exogenous variables and lagged dependent variables. We consider risk minimization with the risk function being the predictive classification error. We study the convergence rates of empirical risk minimization in both the frequentist and Bayesian approaches. The Bayesian treatment uses a Gibbs posterior constructed…