论文检索

更及时、更有用的先行指标指数AI 解读

Effectively predicting cyclical movements in the economy is a major challenge. The U.S. leading index (LI) has long been used to analyze and predict economic fluctuations. We describe and test a new procedure for making the LI more timely. The new LI significantly outperforms its older counterpart. It offers substantial gains in real-time, out-of-sample forecasts of changes in aggregate economic activity (real GDP, the index of coincident indicators, and industrial…

美国失业率预测AI 解读

This article presents a comparison of forecasting performance for a variety of linear and nonlinear time series models using the U.S. unemployment rate. Our main emphases are on measuring forecasting performance during economic expansions and contractions by exploiting the asymmetric cyclical behavior of unemployment numbers, on building vector models that incorporate initial jobless claims as a leading indicator, and on utilizing additional information provided by the…

理性预期与宏观经济预测AI 解读

The article presents extensive results from testing for bias and serially correlated errors in a collection of time series of quarterly multiperiod forecasts for six variables including real GNP growth, inflation, and unemployment. The analysis covers responses by 79 frequent participants in economic outlook surveys conducted regularly since 1968. It shows much greater incidence of apparently systematic errors for inflation than for the other variables. Also, the tests are…