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含干预的半机制流行病模型：频率学派推断AI 解读

Abstract The effect of public health interventions on an epidemic are often estimated by adding the intervention to epidemic models. During the Covid-19 epidemic, numerous papers used such methods for making scenario predictions. The majority of these papers use Bayesian methods to estimate the parameters of the model. In this article, we show how to use frequentist methods for estimating these effects which avoids having to specify prior distributions. We also use…

复合原假设模型中 p 值的渐近分布AI 解读

We investigate the compatibility of a null model H 0 with the data by calculating a p value; that is, the probability, under H 0, that a given test statistic T exceeds its observed value. When the null model consists of a single distribution, the p value is readily obtained, and it has a uniform distribution under H 0. On the other hand, when the null model depends on an unknown nuisance parameter θ one must somehow get rid of θ, (e.g., by estimating it) to calculate a p…