论文检索

长自回归何时能够吸收被忽略的参数变化？AI 解读

To construct forecasts for time series exhibiting breaks, the paper examines long autoregressions, where the number of lags is growing with T , and possible breaks are simply ignored. The paper shows that the OLS estimators are still elementwise consistent for the true autoregressive coefficients when neglecting a break in mean, but the sum of the estimators converges to unity. Thanks to this unit-root like behavior of the fitted model, the resulting conditional forecasts…

时间聚合下的分数阶单整估计AI 解读

A result characterizing the effect of temporal aggregation in the frequency domain is known for arbitrary stationary processes and generalized for difference-stationary processes here. Temporal aggregation includes cumulation of flow variables as well as systematic (or skip) sampling of stock variables. Next, the aggregation result is applied to fractionally integrated processes. In particular, it is investigated whether typical frequency domain assumptions made for…

长记忆分数阶单整过程的脉冲响应AI 解读

Fractionally integrated time series, which have become an important modeling tool over the last two decades, are obtained by applying the fractional filter $(1 - L)^{ - d} = \sum\nolimits_{n = 0}^\infty {b_n } L^n$ to a weakly dependent (short memory) sequence. Weakly dependent sequences are characterized by absolutely summable impulse response coefficients of their Wold representation. The weights b n decay at the rate n d −1 and are not absolutely summable…

一般分数整合的时域检验AI 解读

We propose a family of least-squares–based testing procedures that look to detect general forms of fractional integration at the long-run and/or the cyclical component of a time series, and that are asymptotically equivalent to Lagrange multiplier tests. Our setting extends Robinson’s (1994) results to allow for short memory in a regression framework and generalizes the procedures in Agiakloglou and Newbold (1994), Tanaka (1999), and Breitung and Hassler (2002) by allowing…

时域中的长记忆检验AI 解读

An integration test against fractional alternatives is suggested for univariate time series. The new test is a completely regression-based, lag augmented version of the Lagrange multiplier (LM) test by Robinson (1991, Journal of Econometrics 47, 67–84). Our main contributions, however, are the following. First, we let the short memory component follow a general linear process. Second, the innovations driving this process are martingale differences with eventual conditional…

针对分数协整的残差型 LM 检验AI 解读

Nonstationary integrated time series may be fractionally cointegrated. Here we propose a test for the null hypothesis of no cointegration. It builds on the asymptotically normal Lagrange multiplier (LM) test against fractional alternatives applied to single equation residuals. It is shown that the LM test applied naively to residuals from a static level regression does not retain asymptotic normality. However, when the LM statistic is employed with residuals from a…

摘要暂缺

摘要暂缺

通货膨胀率的长记忆：国际证据AI 解读

The authors examine monthly inflation rates of five industrial countries. The application of tests against stationarity as well as tests against a unit root yield contradictory results. Thus, fractional integration allowing for long memory is a plausible model. The authors discuss and apply the periodogram regression in order to estimate the difference parameters. For all countries, the authors find estimates significantly different from one as well as from zero. This is…