The Inadequacy of Testing Dynamic Theory by Comparing Theoretical Solutions and Observed Cycles
通过比较理论解与观测周期检验动态理论的不足
IN MODERN business-cycle research the following proceeding is being commonly used: First, a mathematical model (a determinate dynamic system) is set up, as an attempt to describe approximately the interconnections between a set of economic variables, their time derivatives, lagged values, and so on, in terms of strict functional relations. By some statistical procedure the constants in the system are estimated from the corresponding observed time series. Then the system is…