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New multivariate panel cointegration methods are used to analyze nominal exchange rates and prices in four major economies in Europe: France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom for the post‐Bretton Woods period. We test for purchasing power parity (PPP) between these four countries and find that the theoretical PPP relationship does not hold. However, the estimated unrestricted relationship is found to be remarkably close to the theoretical one (1, −1.5, 0.9 instead of 1,…

小型开放经济中的货币政策分析与通胀目标制：VAR 方法AI 解读

Abstract Empirical monetary policy research has increased in the last decade, possibly because deregulation and explicit monetary targets have made monetary policy issues more interesting. In particular, within the inflation targeting framework it has been argued that inflation forecasts can be used as optimal intermediate targets for monetary policy, and the development of empirical models that have good forecasting properties is therefore important. This paper shows that a…

协整向量线性约束的 Bootstrap 检验AI 解读

We consider a computer-intensive method for inference on cointegrating vectors in maximum likelihood cointegration analysis. Simulation studies show that the size distortion for the asymptotic likelihood ratio test can be considerable for small samples. Itis demonstrated that a parametric bootstrap frequently results in a nearly exact α-level test. Furthermore, response surface regression is used to examine small-sample properties of the asymptotic test. In particular, using…