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对美联储的政治压力AI 解读

Abstract This paper combines new data and a narrative approach to identify variation in political pressure on the Federal Reserve. From archival records, I build a data set of personal interactions between U.S. Presidents and Fed officials between 1933 and 2016. Since personal interactions do not necessarily reflect political pressure, I develop a narrative identification strategy based on President Nixon’s pressure on Fed Chair Burns. I exploit this narrative through…

经济活动即时预测的进展：异质动态与厚尾的作用AI 解读

A key question for households, firms, and policy makers is: how is the economy doing now? This paper develops a Bayesian dynamic factor model that allows for nonlinearities, heterogeneous lead–lag patterns and fat tails in macroeconomic data. Explicitly modeling these features changes the way that different indicators contribute to the real-time assessment of the state of the economy, and substantially improves the out-of-sample performance of this class of models. In a…