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面向可能不平衡二元及分类数据的高效 Pólya–Gamma 采样器AI 解读

Modeling binary and categorical data is one of the most commonly encountered tasks of applied statisticians and econometricians.While Bayesian methods in this context have been available for decades now, they often require a high level of familiarity with Bayesian statistics or suffer from issues such as low sampling efficiency.To contribute to the accessibility of Bayesian models for binary and categorical data, we introduce novel latent variable representations based on…

时变参数模型框架中的收缩方法AI 解读

Shrinkage for time-varying parameter (TVP) models is investigated within a Bayesian framework, with the aim to automatically reduce time-varying parameters to static ones, if the model is overfitting. This is achieved through placing the double gamma shrinkage prior on the process variances. An efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme is developed, exploiting boosting based on the ancillarity-sufficiency interweaving strategy. The method is applicable both to TVP models for…

面板结果的贝叶斯处理效应与变量选择：产假对收入的影响AI 解读

We propose two alternative Bayesian treatment effect modeling and inferential frameworks for panel outcomes to estimate dynamic earnings effects of a long maternity leave on mothers’ subsequent earnings. Modeling of the endogeneity of the treatment and the panel structure of the earnings are based on the modeling tradition of the Roy switching regression model and the shared factor approach, respectively. We implement stochastic variable selection to test, for example, for…

贝叶斯探索性因子分析AI 解读

This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the corresponding factor loadings. Classical identification criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A…

高斯与部分非高斯状态空间模型的随机设定搜索AI 解读

Model specification for state space models is a difficult task as one has to decide which components to include in the model and to specify whether these components are fixed or time-varying. To this aim a new model space MCMC method is developed in this paper. It is based on extending the Bayesian variable selection approach which is usually applied to variable selection in regression models to state space models. For non-Gaussian state space models stochastic model search…

计数时间序列参数驱动模型的辅助混合抽样及状态空间应用AI 解读

We consider parameter-driven models of time series of counts, where the observations are assumed to arise from a Poisson distribution with a mean changing over time according to a latent process. Estimation of these models is carried out within a Bayesian framework using data augmentation and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We suggest a new auxiliary mixture sampler, which possesses a Gibbsian transition kernel, where we draw from full conditional distributions belonging…

异质性模型的贝叶斯分析AI 解读

effects, which is also known as the heterogeneity model. First, we discuss the properties of various Markov chain Monte Carlo samplers that are obtained from full conditional Gibbs sampling by grouping and collapsing. Whereas full conditional Gibbs sampling turns out to be sensitive to the parameterization chosen for the mean structure of the model, the alternative sampler is robust in this respect. However, the logical extension of the approach to the sampling of the group…

经典与动态切换及混合模型的马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛估计AI 解读

Bayesian estimation of a very general model class, where the distribution of the observations depends on a latent process taking values in a discrete state space, is discussed in this article. This model class covers finite mixture modeling, Markov switching autoregressive modeling, and dynamic linear models with switching. The consequences the unidentifiability of this type of model has on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation are explicitly dealt with. Joint Bayesian…

线性高斯状态空间模型的贝叶斯模型判别与贝叶斯因子AI 解读

SUMMARY It is shown how to discriminate between different linear Gaussian state space models for a given time series by means of a Bayesian approach which chooses the model that minimizes the expected loss. A practical implementation of this procedure requires a fully Bayesian analysis for both the state vector and the unknown hyperparameters and is carried out by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. An application to some non-standard situations such as testing hypotheses on…