Forecasting the Penetration of a New Product—A Bayesian Approach
新产品市场渗透率预测：贝叶斯方法
We adopt a Bayesian approach to forecast the penetration of a new product into a market. We incorporate prior information from an existing product and/or management judgments into the data analysis. The penetration curve is assumed to be a nondecreasing function of time and may be under shape constraints. Markov-chain Monte Carlo methods are proposed and used to compute the Bayesian forecasts. An example on forecasting the penetration of color television using the…