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Evaluating probability forecasts

概率预测的评价

Probability forecasts of events are routinely used in climate predictions, in forecasting default probabilities on bank loans or in estimating the probability of a patient’s positive response to treatment. Scoring rules have long been used to assess the efficacy of the forecast probabilities after observing the occurrence, or nonoccurrence, of the predicted events. We develop herein a statistical theory for scoring rules and propose an alternative approach to the evaluation…

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Nonparametric Estimation and Regression Analysis with Left-Truncated and Right-Censored Data

左截断与右删失数据的非参数估计及回归分析

In many prospective and retrospective studies, survival data are subject to left truncation in addition to the usual right censoring. For left-truncated data without covariates, only the conditional distribution of the survival time Y given Y ≥ τ can be estimated nonparametrically, where τ is the lower boundary of the support of the left-truncation variable T. If the data are also right censored, then the conditional distribution can be consistently estimated only at points…

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Tools for Statistical Inference: Observed Data and Data Augmentation Methods.

统计推断工具:观测数据与数据增广方法

Observed data techniques - normal approximation observed data techniques the EM algorithm data augmentation the Gibbs sampler.

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On Asymptotic Power and Efficiency of Tests of Independence in Contingency Tables with Ordered Classifications

有序分类列联表独立性检验的渐近功效与效率

Asymptotic power formulas for tests of independence against simple association models in I × J contingency tables with ordered categories are presented. Yates's score correlation test and Spearman's tied rank correlation test are compared with a likelihood ratio test proposed by S. J. Haberman for testing independence in log-linear models with ordered classifications. Asymptotic power and relative efficiencies are derived under local alternatives that need not be included in…

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On Asymptotic Power and Efficiency of Tests of Independence in Contingency Tables with Ordered Classifications

有序分类列联表独立性检验的渐近功效与效率

Asymptotic power formulas for tests of independence against simple association models in I × J contingency tables with ordered categories are presented. Yates's score correlation test and Spearman's tied rank correlation test are compared with a likelihood ratio test proposed by S. J. Haberman for testing independence in log-linear models with ordered classifications. Asymptotic power and relative efficiencies are derived under local alternatives that need not be included in…

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