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同期季节调整AI 解读

Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all information up to and including the current month's figure and thus should provide more accurate estimates of final seasonally adjusted data than the prevalent official method where the current month's component is forecasted from data through the preceding December. This article evaluates the expected gain from employing concurrent seasonal adjustment, including the case in which the data contain both nonseasonal and seasonal…

同期季节调整AI 解读

Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all information up to and including the current month's figure and thus should provide more accurate estimates of final seasonally adjusted data than the prevalent official method where the current month's component is forecasted from data through the preceding December. This article evaluates the expected gain from employing concurrent seasonal adjustment, including the case in which the data contain both nonseasonal and seasonal…

使用 Census X-11 进行同期季节调整AI 解读

Much investigative effort is being expended worldwide toward improving seasonally adjusted estimates from the Census X-11 program. Several recent investigations have resulted in a recommendation to obtain the most recent month's adjustment by applying X-11 to data through that month (concurrent adjustment), rather than relying on projected factors obtained from an earlier run. Although there are theoretical arguments supporting the applicaton of X-11 concurrently, a…