Long-term forecasting of El Niño events via dynamic factor simulations
通过动态因子模拟长期预测厄尔尼诺事件
We propose a new forecasting procedure which particularly explores opportunities for improving the precision of medium and long-term forecasts of the Niño3.4 time series that is linked with the well-known El Niño phenomenon. This important climatic time series is subject to an intricate dynamic structure and is interrelated to other climatological variables. The procedure consists of three steps. First, a univariate time series model is considered for producing prediction…