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英国部门放缓：传导概率与经济联系的证据AI 解读

Summary This paper studies spillovers across macroeconomic sectors in the United Kingdom, using data from the Bank of England's Flow of Funds statistics. We combine two different approaches to quantify the spread of economic deterioration to assess whether sectors with large bilateral economic linkages as measured through network data have a greater statistical likelihood of spillovers between them. The combination of both approaches reveals the Monetary Financial…

组成员身份与系数发生结构突变的面板分组模型估计AI 解读

This paper considers linear panel data models with a grouped pattern of heterogeneity when the latent group membership structure and/or the values of slope coefficients change at a break point. We propose a least squares approach to jointly estimate the break point, group membership structure, and coefficients. The proposed estimators are consistent, and the asymptotic distribution of the coefficient estimators is identical to that under known break point and group structure…

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多元时间序列共同断点的检验与定年AI 解读

This paper develops methods for constructing asymptotically valid confidence intervals for the date of a single break in multivariate time series, including I(0), I(1), and deterministically trending regressors. Although the width of the asymptotic confidence interval does not decrease as the sample size increases, it is inversely related to the number of series which have a common break date, so there are substantial gains to multivariate inference about break dates. These…

IGARCH(1,1)与协方差平稳GARCH(1,1)模型中准极大似然估计的一致性与渐近正态性AI 解读

This paper provides a proof of the consistency and asymptotic normality of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator in GARCH(1,1) and IGARCH(1,1) models. In contrast to the case of a unit root in the conditional mean, the presence of a 'unit root' in the conditional variance does not affect the limiting distribution of the estimators; in both models, estimators are normally distributed. In addition, a consistent estimator of the covariance matrix is available, enabling the use…

GARCH(1,1) 与 IGARCH(1,1) 最大似然估计量的有限样本性质：蒙特卡洛考察AI 解读

This paper compares GARCH(1,1) and IGARCH(1,1) models via a Monte Carlo study of the finite sample properties of the maximum likelihood estimator and related test statistics. While the asymptotic distribution is well approximated by the estimated t statistics, other commonly used statistics do not behave as well. In addition, the estimators themselves are skewed in small samples. For the null hypothesis of IGARCH(1,1), Wald tests typically have the best size while the…

单位根与趋势突变假说的递归和序贯检验：理论与国际证据AI 解读

This paper investigates the possibility, raised by P. Perron (1989, 1990) and P. Rappoport and L. Reichlin (1989), that aggregate economic time series can be characterized as being stationary around broken trend lines. Unlike those authors, the authors treat the break date as unknown a priori. Asymptotic distributions are developed for recursive, rolling, and sequential tests for unit roots and/or changing coefficients in time series regressions. When applied to data on real…