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半参数 ARCH 模型AI 解读

A semiparametric ARCH model is introduced with conditional first and second moments given by ARMA and ARCH formulations, and a conditional density that is approximated by a nonparametric density estimator. For several densities, the relative efficiency of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator is compared with maximum likelihood under correct specification. These potential efficiency gains for a fully adaptive procedure are compared in a Monte Carlo experiment with the…

因子 ARCH 协方差结构下的资产定价AI 解读

In this paper we suggest using the FACTOR-ARCH model as a parsimonious structure for the conditional covariance matrix of asset excess returns. This structure allows us to study the dynamic relationship between asset risk premia and volatilities in a multivariate system. One and two FACTOR-ARCH models are succussfully applied to pricing of Treasury bills. The results show stability over time, pass a variety of diagnostic tests, and compare favorably with previous empirical…

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期限结构中时变风险溢价的估计：ARCH-M 模型AI 解读

The expectati on of the excess holding yield on a long bond is postulated to depend upon its conditional variance. Engle's ARCH model is extended to allow the conditional variance to be a determinant of the mean and is called ARCH-M. Estimation and infer ence procedures are proposed, and the model is applied to three interest rate data sets. In most cases the ARCH process and the time varying risk premium are highly significant. A collection of LM diagnostic tests reveals…

协整与误差修正：表示、估计与检验AI 解读

The relationship between co-integration and error correction models, first suggested in Granger (1981), is here extended and used to develop estimation procedures, tests, and empirical examples. If each element of a vector of time series x first achieves stationarity after differencing, but a linear combination a'x is already stationary, the time series x are said to be co-integrated with co-integrating vector a. There may be several such co-integrating vectors so that a…

天气与售电量关系的半参数估计AI 解读

A nonlinear relationship between electricity sales and temperature is estimated using a semiparametric regression procedure that easily allows linear transformations of the data. This accommodates introduction of covariates, timing adjustments due to the actual billing schedules, and serial correlation. The procedure is an extension of smoothing splines with the smoothness parameter estimated from minimization of the generalized cross-validation criterion introduced by…

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自回归条件异方差与英国通胀方差估计AI 解读

Traditional econometric models assume a constant one-period forecast variance. To generalize this implausible assumption, a new class of stochastic processes called autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH) processes are introduced in this paper. These are mean zero, serially uncorrelated processes with nonconstant variances conditional on the past, but constant unconditional variances. For such processes, the recent past gives information about the one-period…

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