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附加条件矩限制的检验AI 解读

The primary focus of this article is the provision of tests for the validity of a set of conditional moment constraints additional to those defining the maintained hypothesis that are relevant for independent cross-sectional data contexts. The point of departure and principal contribution of the paper is the explicit and full incorporation of the conditional moment information defining the maintained hypothesis in the design of the test statistics. Thus, the approach mirrors…

矩条件模型中被忽略的参数异质性AI 解读

The central concern of this paper is parameter heterogeneity in models specified by a number of unconditional or conditional moment conditions and thereby the provision of a framework for the development of apposite optimal m-tests against its potential presence. We initially consider the unconditional moment restrictions framework. Optimal m-tests against moment condition parameter heterogeneity are derived with the relevant Jacobian matrix obtained in terms of the second…

弱识别下的广义经验似然统计量AI 解读

The central concern of this paper is the provision in a time series moment condition framework of practical recommendations of confidence regions for parameters whose coverage probabilities are robust to the strength or weakness of identification. To this end we develop Pearson-type test statistics based on GEL implied probabilities formed from general kernel smoothed versions of the moment indicators. We also modify the statistics suggested in Guggenberger and Smith (2008)…

矩条件模型的广义经验似然准则AI 解读

GEL methods that generalize and extend previous contributions are defined and analyzed for moment condition models specified in terms of weakly dependent data. These procedures offer alternative one-step estimators and tests that are asymptotically equivalent to their efficient two-step GMM counterparts. The basis for GEL estimation is via a smoothed version of the moment indicators using kernel function weights that incorporate a bandwidth parameter. Examples for the choice…

非光滑矩函数的广义经验似然方法AI 解读

This paper considers the first-order large sample properties of the generalized empirical likelihood (GEL) class of estimators for models specified by nonsmooth indicators. The GEL class includes a number of estimators recently introduced as alternatives to the efficient generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator that may suffer from substantial biases in finite samples. These include empirical likelihood (EL), exponential tilting (ET), and the continuous updating…

基于回归的季节性单位根检验AI 解读

The contribution of this paper is threefold. First, a characterization theorem of the subhypotheses comprising the seasonal unit root hypothesis is presented that provides a precise formulation of the alternative hypotheses associated with regression- based seasonal unit root tests. Second, it proposes regression-based tests for the seasonal unit root hypothesis that allow a general seasonal aspect for the data and are similar both exactly and asymptotically with respect to…

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部分、弱与强识别下的广义经验似然估计与检验AI 解读

The purpose of this paper is to describe the performance of generalized empirical likelihood (GEL) methods for time series instrumental variable models specified by nonlinear moment restrictions as in Stock and Wright (2000, Econometrica 68, 1055–1096) when identification may be weak. The paper makes two main contributions. First, we show that all GEL estimators are first-order equivalent under weak identification. The GEL estimator under weak identification is inconsistent…

自动半正定 HAC 协方差矩阵与 GMM 估计AI 解读

This paper proposes a new class of heteroskedastic and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) covariance matrix estimators. The standard HAC estimation method reweights estimators of the autocovariances. Here we initially smooth the data observations themselves using kernel function–based weights. The resultant HAC covariance matrix estimator is the normalized outer product of the smoothed random vectors and is therefore automatically positive semidefinite. A corresponding…

GMM 与广义经验似然估计量的高阶性质AI 解读

In an effort to improve the small sample properties of generalized method of mo-ments (GMM) estimators, a number of alternative estimators have been suggested. These include empirical likelihood (EL), continuous updating, and exponential tilt-ing estimators. We show that these estimators share a common structure, being members of a class of generalized empirical likelihood (GEL) estimators. We use this structure to compare their higher order asymptotic properties. We find…

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经济活动的自动先行指标：欧洲国家GDP增长预测AI 解读

In the construction of a leading indicator model of economic activity, economists must select among a pool of variables which lead output growth. Usually the pool of variables is large and a selection of a subset must be carried out. This paper proposes an automatic leading indicator model which, rather than preselection, uses a dynamic factor model to summarize the information content of a pool of variables. Results using quarterly data for France, Germany, Italy and the…

水平关系分析的界限检验方法AI 解读

Abstract This paper develops a new approach to the problem of testing the existence of a level relationship between a dependent variable and a set of regressors, when it is not known with certainty whether the underlying regressors are trend‐ or first‐difference stationary. The proposed tests are based on standard F ‐ and t ‐statistics used to test the significance of the lagged levels of the variables in a univariate equilibrium correction mechanism. The asymptotic…

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矩阵秩的检验AI 解读

This paper considers tests for the rank of a matrix for which a root- T consistent estimator is available. However, in contrast to tests associated with the minimum chi-square and asymptotic least squares principles, the estimator's asymptotic variance matrix is not required to be either full or of known rank. Test statistics based on certain estimated characteristic roots are proposed whose limiting distributions are a weighted sum of independent chi-squared variables.…

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局部异方差积分下若干差分平稳检验的功效AI 解读

This article considers the power properties of the McCabe and Tremayne (MT) test for the difference stationarity of a time series. The limiting distribution of the MT test is derived under sequences of locally heteroscedastic and locally explosive autoregressive (AR) alternatives. The limiting distribution of Dickey–Fuller (DF) statistics is also considered under a sequence of locally heteroscedastic alternatives. Whereas the MT test possesses asymptotic power against both…

会计约束下的测量误差：潜在数据的点与区间估计及英国 GDP 应用AI 解读

An econometric methodology is proposed for reconciling inaccurate measures of latent data which are subject to accounting constraints. The method deals with the case in which the measurement errors are serially correlated, generalizing previous contributions. A class of efficient estimators are derived for the latent data. Consistent estimators for the weight matrices applied to the observed information based on a linear regression procedure are obtained together with…

似然比设定检验AI 解读

Moment based tests for mispecification of parametric models (e.g., of mean equals variance in a Poisson model) are studied. The moment restrictions under test are embedded in an extension of the model so that the moment test is a score test of the hypothesis that a vector of added parameters is zero. Second-order asymptotic properties of the likelihood ratio version of this test are studied. Unlike the conventional test, the likelihood ratio version is Bartlett correctable.…

似然比检验的 Bartlett 校正AI 解读

This note resolves two conflicting published corrections to Hayakawa's (1977) expansion of the likelihood ratio statistic, one of which suggests that a coefficient in the expansion is always zero and therefore irrelevant, the other suggesting that the formula for the coefficient is in error and that the coefficient should not be present. We present an example in which Hayakawa's formula for the coefficient yields nonzero values, explain why the argument that the reported…

似然比检验的 Bartlett 修正AI 解读

This note resolves two conflicting published corrections to Hayakawa's (1977) expansion of the likelihood ratio statistic, one of which suggests that a coefficient in the expansion is always zero and therefore irrelevant, the other suggesting that the formula for the coefficient is in error and that the coefficient should not be present. We present an example in which Hayakawa's formula for the coefficient yields nonzero values, explain why the argument that the reported…