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非平稳数据下的反事实分析与推断AI 解读

Recently, there has been growing interest in developing econometric tools to conduct counterfactual analysis with aggregate data when a single “treated” unit suffers an intervention, such as a policy change, and there is no obvious control group. Usually, the proposed methods are based on the construction of an artificial/synthetic counterfactual from a pool of “untreated” peers, organized in a panel data structure. In this article, we investigate the consequences of…

人工对照的反事实分析：推断、高维与非平稳性AI 解读

Recently, there has been growing interest in developing statistical tools to conduct counterfactual analysis with aggregate data when a single “treated” unit suffers an intervention, such as a policy change, and there is no obvious control group. Usually, the proposed methods are based on the construction of an artificial counterfactual from a pool of “untre ated” peers, organized in a panel data structure. In this article, we consider a general framework for counterfactual…

ArCo：高维面板时间序列的人工反事实方法AI 解读

We consider a new, flexible and easy-to-implement method to estimate thecausal effects of an intervention on a single treated unit when a control group is not available and which nests previous proposals in the literature. It is a two-step methodology where in the first stage, a counterfactual is estimated based on a large-dimensional set of variables from a pool of untreated units by means of shrinkage methods, such as the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator…