Combining Proxies and Narrative Sign Restrictions: Revisiting the Effects of Technology Shocks
结合代理变量与叙事符号限制：重新考察技术冲击的影响
ABSTRACT This paper proposes a novel integration of the proxy structural vector autoregression approach with narrative sign restrictions to identify multiple shocks with multiple instrumental variables. We show that this combination leads to informative inferences on shock effects through both analytical demonstrations and Monte Carlo simulations. Applying this method to identify anticipated and unanticipated technology shocks, we find that anticipated shocks account for…