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半参数过度离散广义线性模型中的变量选择与模型平均AI 解读

We express the mean and variance terms in a double-exponential regression model as additive functions of the predictors and use Bayesian variable selection to determine which predictors enter the model and whether they enter linearly or flexibly. When the variance term is null, we obtain a generalized additive model, which becomes a generalized linear model if the predictors enter the mean linearly. The model is estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation, and the…

日内电力负荷的贝叶斯建模与预测AI 解读

The advent of wholesale electricity markets has brought renewed focus on intraday electricity load forecasting. This article proposes a multi-equation regression model with a diagonal first-order stationary vector autoregresson (VAR) for modeling and forecasting intraday electricity load. The correlation structure of the disturbances to the VAR and the appropriate subset of regressors are explored using Bayesian model selection methodology. The full spectrum of finite-sample…