Long Waves and Short Waves: Growth Through Intensive and Extensive Search
长波与短波：通过集约与广延搜索实现增长
This paper endogenizes the frequency of major discoveries and the extent of their refinement. Four axioms deliver a one-parameter family of beliefs that guide exploratory effort. Such effort trades off the prospect of major new discovery against the chance of successfully refining discoveries made in the past. The only other parameter is the cost of making new discoveries relative to the cost of refining old ones. The paper derives time-series properties of inventive…