Bayesian Impact Evaluation With Informative Priors: An Application to a Colombian Management and Export Improvement Program
信息性先验的贝叶斯影响评估：哥伦比亚管理与出口改善项目
Policymakers often test expensive new programs on relatively small samples. Formally incorporating informative Bayesian priors into impact evaluation offers the promise to learn more from these experiments. We evaluate a Colombian program for 200 firms which aimed to increase exporting. Priors were elicited from academics, policymakers, and firms. Contrary to these priors, frequentist estimation cannot reject null effects in 2019, and finds some negative impacts in 2020. For…