A Forecasting Model of Federal Purchases of Goods and Services
联邦商品与服务采购的预测模型
The principal assumption underlying the model is that Presidential budget recommendations [only for goods and services] are an adequate approximation to Congressional appropriations. This implies that Federal purchases depend on the past stream of budget recommendations. It is suggested that the time shape of this past stream be represented by Koyck and/or Pascal distributed lags. Our best forecasting system, which combines Koyck and Pascal distributions, results in forecast…