Nonparametric Estimation and Forecasting for Time-Varying Coefficient Realized Volatility Models
时变系数已实现波动率模型的非参数估计与预测
This article introduces a new specification for the heterogenous autoregressive (HAR) model for the realized volatility of S&P 500 index returns. In this modeling framework, the coefficients of the HAR are allowed to be time-varying with unspecified functional forms. The local linear method with the cross-validation (CV) bandwidth selection is applied to estimate the time-varying coefficient HAR (TVC-HAR) model, and a bootstrap method is used to construct the point-wise…