Probabilistic Foundation of Confirmatory Adaptive Designs
验证性自适应设计的概率基础
Adaptive designs allow the investigator of a confirmatory trial to react to unforeseen developments by changing the design. This broad flexibility comes at the price of a complex statistical model where important components, such as the adaptation rule, remain unspecified. It has thus been doubted whether Type I error control can be guaranteed in general adaptive designs. This criticism is fully justified as long as the probabilistic framework on which an adaptive design is…