Properties of Predictors in Misspecified Autoregressive Time Series Models
误设自回归时间序列模型中预测量的性质
This article investigates major effects of misspecification in stationary linear time series models when we fit a pth-order autoregressive model. The true model can be an autoregressive moving average model. We derive the formulas of bias and mean squared error (MSE) of the least squares estimator and the hth period ahead prediction MSE in the time domain. Contrary to previous studies, the process in estimation is not necessarily independent of the process in prediction, and…