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通过幂后验估计边际似然AI 解读

Summary Model choice plays an increasingly important role in statistics. From a Bayesian perspective a crucial goal is to compute the marginal likelihood of the data for a given model. However, this is typically a difficult task since it amounts to integrating over all model parameters. The aim of the paper is to illustrate how this may be achieved by using ideas from thermodynamic integration or path sampling. We show how the marginal likelihood can be computed via Markov…

一般可分解模型的递归计算与免模拟推断AI 解读

We illustrate how the recursive algorithm of Reeves & Pettitt (2004) for general factorizable models can be extended to allow exact sampling, maximization of distributions and computation of marginal distributions. All of the methods we describe apply to discrete-valued Markov random fields with nearest neighbour integrations defined on regular lattices; in particular we illustrate that exact inference can be performed for hidden autologistic models defined on moderately…

通过模拟退火进行经典模型选择AI 解读

Summary The classical approach to statistical analysis is usually based upon finding values for model parameters that maximize the likelihood function. Model choice in this context is often also based on the likelihood function, but with the addition of a penalty term for the number of parameters. Though models may be compared pairwise by using likelihood ratio tests for example, various criteria such as the Akaike information criterion have been proposed as alternatives…